More IPO Fluffing: Musk’s Starlink Hints At Becoming Full Wireless Phone Company
Last month, SpaceX began making lobbying filings in support of phone unlocking rules making it easier to switch your phone between wireless providers. You might recall that the Biden FCC was on the cusp of installing such rules before the Trump administration, hand in hand with giant telecoms, dismantled them (Trump’s FCC will have to decide whether they love Verizon/AT&T/T-Mobile or Elon Musk more).
SpaceX’s push now makes a little more sense with the company saying it is “considering” launching a Starlink retail product and could eventually build its own terrestrial US mobile network:
“The company’s president and chief operating officer, Gwynne Shotwell, told investors during a recent IPO roadshow that the group was considering launching a Starlink retail product and could build its own terrestrial US mobile network, according to four people familiar with the matter.”
To be clear, I think a lot of this is simply more bullshit to justify the insane SpaceX IPO valuation. But the fact SpaceX has lobbied for phone unlocking rules suggests there is at least some kernel of real curiosity about an actual plan.
One major problem for SpaceX and Starlink is that Starlink is already too congested to handle the traffic they currently deal with. They’re already struggling under the load of 10 million low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite users; the idea, as proposed in their IPO prospectus, that they’ll very quickly surge to more than 300 million subscribers was already the stuff of fantasy.
But when it comes to building out a cellular network to reach that goal, they simply don’t have the spectrum for this kind of thing:
“New Street Research estimates that the three US mobile network operators have a total of about 1,020MHz of spectrum, while SpaceX has just 65MHz.”
Building out telecom networks is a massive, costly, and expensive chore. Even when you own a government. Directly threatening AT&T and Verizon — some of the most politically powerful companies in the country — wouldn’t be a cake walk, even for Musk. And while Musk clearly has influence at the FCC (remember that time he got Brendan Carr to launch a fake investigation to acquire more spectrum?), turning Starlink into a full wireless/cellular/satellite carrier would be very slow and very expensive.
So if you were a logic-driven investor you’d likely and correctly view this as a costly money pit with no returns anywhere on the horizon. The only real way to make it work would be to acquire somebody like T-Mobile, which would cost billions, take years to integrate, and face all sorts of operational and political challenges — especially if the economy is going to break (further) or control of Congress shifts.
So while a Starlink jump into wireless is certainly possible, I think it’s more likely that this is just putting a toe in the water in a way that might help them extract more favorable terms from their existing cellular partners (they currently offer an “out of range” option via T-Mobile). It’s also likely more IPO fluffing by people who know U.S. journalists and investors no longer truly inhabit operational reality.





I mean it certainly starts that way. And your point makes sense if you completely ignore the later stage trajectory of most large privately-traded companies over a long enough timeline. Like Boeing. Or the entirety of telecom. And you mention Google, but their search quality is an absolute dumpster fire now because, in part, they're financially incentivized at every level to pursue impossible ever-upward scaling growth over quality.
here's a study from just this week showcasing how U.S. mobile data price competition effectively halted in the wake of the deal https://research.rewheel.fi/downloads/The_state_of_mobile_and_broadband_pricing_1H2024_PUBLIC_REDACTED_VERSION.pdf I'll trim out the relevant bit for you: "Five years on, the Sprint / T-Mobile 4-to-3 mobile merger made the US one of the most expensive mobile markets in the world."
This is gibberish. The FCC literally didn't read the merger review impact studies from its own agency before approving the deal: https://www.techdirt.com/2019/10/22/fcc-approved-t-mobile-sprint-merger-without-even-seeing-full-details/ And the Trump DOJ "antitrust enforcer" Makan Delrahim worked with both companies, in his personal time using his personal phone and email accounts, to make sure the deal got approved: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/19/technology/sprint-t-mobile-merger-antitrust-official.html That is not how "antitrust enforcement" works. Also here's a study from just this week showcasing how the consolidation in competition immediately put a halt to all wireless data price competition https://research.rewheel.fi/downloads/The_state_of_mobile_and_broadband_pricing_1H2024_PUBLIC_REDACTED_VERSION.pdf mindless consolidation apologists are embarrassing
freedom technology
I mean he just last week called X a "freedom technology," which suggests to me either rampant ignorance or allegiance to the broader mission of being a safe space for bigots. I simply can't take him seriously.
I forgot to mention in this post that Comcast waited two weeks to implement the necessary patch to protect its systems, despite widespread discussion of the severe impact of this particular vulnerability. Good times!
yup. "flood the zone with shit." Undermine consensus and expertise. Erode public trust in institutions. Make it challenging if not impossible to determine what's true. Helps if you simultaneously attack journalism and academia on multiple, concurrent fronts.
thanks
Whoops, thank you. I had conflated the union background with People's Choice (which is engaged in a similar mission) in my head. Corrected, thank you (and please keep up the good work).
the data is super clear on this, yep. Cooperatives, utilities (many city owned), and municipalities provide better, cheaper, faster broadband. AND it's locally owned by people who have a direct responsibility to the markets they serve. It's not some magical panacea, and there's certainly a huge role for private ISPs, but the path forward here is pretty clear. Tons of community-owned open access fiber networks, leased to multiple competitors.
yes, most analysis also doesn't include the hidden fees buried below the line. That just technically doesn't exist, and that's where cable and telecom giants make huge chunks of their profits.
"Push it onto the large ISPs: make them give details of speed availability throughout the territory they’re operating in (or looking to expand into), have an intern overlay it onto a map, and hold the companies to it." One, giant telecom monopolies lie about coverage, constantly. Two, they have spent twenty years lobbying government to ensure telecom regulators are too feckless, feeble, understaffed, and underfunded to hold them accountable for anything. Your proposal basically involves throwing untold billions at a big ambiguous mountain of predatory monopolies and just hoping it all works out Without reform and taking aim at state and federal corruption, none of this works out particularly efficiently, which is kind of explained in the post you responded to.
RTFA
So the FCC's first effort on this front made adhering to it voluntary, which was pointless. The Infrastructure bill required that they implement it permanently with mandatory requirements. But it still needs review and getting it implemented and enforced would require an FCC voting majority, which they don't have because the telecom lobby is currently ratfucking the appointment of a third Democratic commissioner to the FCC. And even with its full voting majority I'm not really sure the FCC would have the backbone to consistently enforce this much.
whoops, yes. brain fart. apologies.
it's so funny because even the Democratic Commissioners heralded as being pro-consumer can't candidly acknowledge in public comments that telecom monopolies exist and cause harm. there's just zero political courage to challenge them in any meaningful way, even if it's just rhetorically.
there used to be these kinds of requirements embedded in many local franchise agreements, but those were largely killed off in a big vilification push when phone companies lobbied to ready the field for their entry into the TV sector.
they're still basing a lot of this on "advertised" speeds. Hopefully this gets corrected courtesy of challenges, but I'm hearing a lot of skepticism on the challenge process actually working.
...
They don't serve my neck of the woods in South Seattle, unfortunately. There's conduit everywhere yet Comcast remains the only competitor here in much of "Silicon Valley North"
right on. "don't do the thing they incentivize you to do and punish you for not doing" is not a solution. And as I note to others, I also don't like laggy GUIs, tying the GUI to basic HDMI port switching, which still happens if you're offline.
I settled on the LG C1 this last purchase round and love the quality, but I still think the OS and GUI is shitty. And it STILL has the same problem where they tether the GUI (which gets slower as the TV hardware ages in relation to software bloat) to HDMI switching, so doing the basic act of switching ports is way more cumbersome and annoying than it should be (even if you operate the TV without connecting it to the internet).
Sceptre is arguably the dodgiest TV brand you can find and he linked to a dated LED TV. He literally didn't read the post, did a 30 second google search, and concluded the issue solved.