Random Scams Won't Take Down Google

Predictions

from the nice-try,-though dept

Three years ago, reporter Tom Foremski tossed out his idea for how Microsoft could kill Google in an underhanded way: offer $100 million to whoever clicked on a random Google ad. The trick would be that no one (other than the person administering the prize at Microsoft) would know what the ad is. Foremski’s theory was that this would lead to massive clickfraud and anger from Google advertisers. Of course, there are a lot of assumptions in there that likely wouldn’t hold up in a real world test (with the biggest being that the whole deal would stop working the second someone “won”). However, now we’ve got Mark Cuban tossing out a suggestion for how to take down Google that seems to come from the same “wishful thinking” playbook. Cuban’s idea is that Microsoft (with Yahoo) should offer to pay the top 100,000 sites in Google to get them to remove themselves from Google, and agree to be “exclusively” in the Yahoo/Microsoft listing. The idea is that the money would serve to pay for the lost traffic from Google — but that’s highly speculative.

If Microsoft actually tried this, it would be quite difficult for the Justice Department not to call an antitrust foul, first of all. But, at a more practical level, it just wouldn’t work. It’s based on the false premise that those top 100k sites are really the only sites that matter. If they all disappeared from Google’s index, another 100k would quickly fill in to replace them. In fact, it would get more and more difficult to convince sites to leave Google’s index, since the competition for clicks would get easier and easier as others did leave. On top of that, if this actually did happen, my guess is Google would continue to index those sites anyway forcing some sort of court battle over whether or not a site can actually block a search engine from spidering it entirely. These sorts of ideas are fun to think about, but once you think past the basic idea, it’s not hard to recognize why the scams would never work. Beating Google is never going to be about a scam.

Now, I should add that I started writing up this post last night. This morning, the news came out that Cuban is included on the board slate that Carl Icahn has put up to try to force Yahoo to sell to Microsoft. The timing, obviously, is no coincidence. Cuban’s blog post went up just hours before he was revealed to be a potential board member. However, just because this could, conceivably, put Cuban in a position to actually push Microsoft/Yahoo to implement such a plan, it doesn’t make it any more viable. In fact, it makes it that much more questionable.

Filed Under: advertising, competing, mark cuban, search engines
Companies: google, microsoft, yahoo

What, You Thought The Whole Yahoo/Microsoft Thing Was Over?

Deals

from the silly-believer dept

You just knew that the whole Yahoo/Microsoft deal wasn’t really over and done with, right? Rumors started spreading yesterday that billionaire investor and professional “shake things up” guy Carl Icahn was going to put forth his own slate for the Yahoo board (after buying up a bunch of shares in the company) which would allow him to create a board that would sell the company off to Microsoft. Those kinds of rumors don’t just magically come out of nowhere, so it should come as no surprise that it looks like, indeed, Icahn will be putting forth his own list of potential board members. As plenty of people have noted, this ought to be fun to watch. Dealing with Steve Ballmer is one thing, but taking on Icahn isn’t something that many do successfully. Of course, the real question is what does Icahn do with Yahoo should he gain control over the board. Many are assuming that he’ll sell it off to Microsoft, which assumes that Microsoft is willing to come back to the table. Either way, it seems like what we witnessed over the last few months was merely Act One. Act Two may be a lot more exciting.

Filed Under: carl icahn, mergers
Companies: microsoft, yahoo

Does Microsoft's Media Center Let TV Producers Block Shows From Being Recorded?

(Mis)Uses of Technology

from the sleazy-if-true dept

And here we go again with rumors about questionable DRM tactics involving Microsoft and NBC Universal. Just days after a (later denied, after first being confirmed) report that Microsoft was going to put a “copyright cop” into Zune devices, users of Microsoft’s Vista Media Center were upset to find that they were unable to record certain NBC Universal television shows earlier this week. Instead, they received error messages reading: “Restrictions set by the broadcaster and/or originator prohibit recording of this program.” That would suggest, at the very least, that Microsoft’s Media Center does allow content broadcasters to block shows from being recorded — even if it turns out that they didn’t block these particular shows on purpose. My guess is that this was an accident in this case, because it would be quite surprising to find out that NBC Universal and Microsoft would do this officially without any kind of announcement. However, given that other DVR systems out there do not have any such restrictions, this should serve as yet another reason not to trust Microsoft and its DRM efforts. Update: Some folks in the comments reminded us that TiVo had a similar problem a year and a half ago, which was equally problematic. There are still other DVR offerings out there that do not include these “features.”

Filed Under: drm, dvrs, media center, time-shifting
Companies: microsoft, nbc universal

Microsoft Tries To Limit Machines That Can Use Low Cost OS

News You Could Do Without

from the can't-let-anyone-use-a-cheap-product dept

Kevin Stapp writes in to alert us to the fact that in Microsoft’s attempt to compete against Linux on various low-end PCs, it’s offering a cheap version of its operating system — but rather than simply offering it up for different computer makers to use, it’s got specific rules limiting the type of computers it can be used on — basically guaranteeing that their operating systems remain off of many low end machines that don’t qualify under the extremely limited specs (no touch screens, no hard drives over 80 gigs, etc.). This is pointless for a variety of reasons, but the simplest one is this: any time you try to limit the use of your software to platforms that are less useful and less powerful than what’s available, you’re basically telling everyone who wants quality to go with a different provider. It’s hard to see why Microsoft would want to make that kind of argument — unless they don’t realize that they’re actually competing in this space. Given how little competition Microsoft has had to deal with in the OS market for years, perhaps it’s natural that they don’t know how to compete when it’s finally necessary.

Filed Under: cheap pcs, low cost, low power, operating systems
Companies: microsoft

And Just Like That… Neither Yahoo Nor Google Really That Motivated To Complete A Search Ad Deal

News You Could Do Without

from the after-sobering-up... dept

Last month Yahoo did what it had previously insisted it wouldn’t do: it began testing Google’s ads in place of its own search ads. At the time, Yahoo insisted that it had nothing whatsoever to do with Microsoft’s attempted takeover. It even claimed that the plans had been put in place well before Microsoft’s unsolicited offer. Of course, now that Microsoft has withdrawn the offer — citing the potential ad deal with Google as one of the main reasons for backing away — suddenly it appears that neither Yahoo nor Google are all that keen on moving forward on a more advanced deal. Funny how that works.

Filed Under: ads, search ads
Companies: google, microsoft, yahoo

Microsoft Agrees To Put A Copyright Cop On The Zune

(Mis)Uses of Technology

from the not-quite-how-you-grow-your-market-share dept

Want to know exactly what not to do in order to build up marketshare against a formidable competitor? It’s doing what Microsoft appears to be doing with the Zune: making it less useful for buyers. Remember, last month NBC Universal claimed that the reason it was keeping TV shows off of iTunes was because Apple refused to build a filter that would try to spot other unauthorized material and block it from getting on the iPod. So, with Microsoft announcing a deal to carry NBC TV shows for the Zune… the question had to be asked. And, yes, NBC is claiming that it went with Microsoft because Microsoft has agreed to build a copyright cop into the Zune. In other words, if you want the “legitimate” version of Heroes on your Zune, you may no longer be able to transfer lots of other content onto your Zune. This from the company that is already struggling to find people to buy a Zune.

It’s difficult to figure out which side is making the bigger mistake here, so we’ll just say that both companies are working hard to drag each other down. First off, Microsoft. Apparently not having learned anything from recent DRM debacles, building a special copyright cop into the Zune software immediately makes the device that much less useful. Any such filter will be more of a nuisance than anything else. While it may temporarily cause annoyance to some users, those who really want to get content onto their Zunes will figure out other ways — so this will only serve to piss them off. And, in many cases it will (yes, it will) stop the perfectly legitimate transfer of content to the Zune. So, it won’t serve the purpose, but it will piss people off. Why would anyone buy into that plan?

As for NBC, remember, we’re talking about TV shows here. TV shows that the company already distributes for free. You want as many people watching these shows as possible. Stop worrying about “piracy” and focus on making it as damn easy as possible for as many people to watch the shows as possible, and just include a few non-intrusive, non-annoying (but very entertaining) advertisements in there and everything will be great. Pissing off the very people you’re trying to get to watch your (free!) TV shows doesn’t seem like a strategy that’s going to make many fans happy. They have plenty of other options on what to do with their time. Even worse, making sure that the only way that owners of iPods (the dominant player in the market) can see your shows is to get them from unauthorized sources (of which there are plenty) doesn’t seem particularly smart.

These are rather simple things that should be obvious to anyone online at this point. That folks at Microsoft and NBC Universal seem to not realize them gives you a hint of what direction both companies are heading in with this effort. Update: Microsoft is denying the NY Times story. Update 2: Microsoft PR points us to Microsoft’s blog statement denying the story as well. Reading between the lines, it sounds like NBC brought it up and Microsoft basically said “we’ll think about it,” but hasn’t promised to do anything.

Filed Under: copyright, copyright cop, media players, tv shows, zune
Companies: apple, microsoft, nbc universal

Yahoo Needs To Pull An Apple Before It Becomes A Netscape

Deals

from the can-jerry-yang-channel-his-inner-steve-jobs? dept

By now, of course, you’ve seen the story of the weekend: Microsoft walking away from its offer to Yahoo, after first raising its bid (though not high enough for Yahoo). Microsoft chose not to go hostile recognizing that would make a bad situation even worse — in part because Yahoo made it clear that it would swallow its own type of a poison pill by handing over its search to Google. At this point, you can expect a bunch of lawsuits to follow, and Yahoo’s stock to fall off a cliff. It’s not unreasonable to think Jerry Yang’s job may be on the line.

So what now? To be honest, this is a case where I think that the interests of Yahoo’s shareholders and the interest of the company diverged. Jerry Yang and Yahoo probably recognized that the integration would be a disaster, in part due to the cultural differences between the two companies. I honestly think Yahoo has a better chance of doing something interesting separate from Microsoft. However, by “better chance” that doesn’t necessarily mean a “good chance.”

At this point, Yahoo has a rather short time frame to turn the company around. Yes, it’s profitable and yes, it’s still huge — but its big shareholders are going to come out of this pissed off and impatient. So Yahoo really needs to “pull an Apple.” Apple in the late 90’s was basically left for dead. Michael Dell famously declared that if he were in charge, he would shut the company down and give shareholders their money. But Steve Jobs came back and reinvented Apple into a very different company, first with the iMac, then the iPod and more recently the iPhone. He stopped the company from being “yet another computer company” and forged a totally different path.

If Yahoo wants to survive (and not end up getting taken over for a much lower price in another year or two), it needs to stop trying to be Google. In fact, it needs to stop thinking so much about Google, and it has to come up with that “different” path, the same way Apple did. This isn’t easy, and in Apple’s case it took the singular focus and brilliant mind of Steve Jobs (who also surrounded himself with some other brilliant folks). Jerry Yang needs to channel his inner Steve Jobs and come up with a way to totally reinvent the company — and fast. The odds of him being able to do so seem slim, but if he can’t, he should have just taken the last Microsoft offer.

Filed Under: failed merger, mergers
Companies: microsoft, yahoo

A Hostile Microsoft Bid For Yahoo! Would Likely Be A Pyrrhic Victory

Predictions

from the culture-clash dept

Marc Andreessen has an interesting post looking at the consequences if Microsoft officially goes hostile in its bid for Yahoo! Thus far, the two firms have been engaged in a careful dance where each side has left the door open for a negotiated settlement. But with neither side showing any sign of backing down, it’s looking increasingly likely that Microsoft will be forced to make an overt bid for control of Yahoo’s shares. There are two basic strategies Microsoft could pursue. One would be a tender offer, in which Microsoft attempts to purchase a majority of Yahoo!’s stock. The other would be a proxy fight, in which Microsoft nominates a competing slate to Yahoo!’s board of directors, on the understanding that the new slate would accept Microsoft’s existing offer. Either of these options would spark litigation from the losing party. Then, it would have to clear regulatory hurdles, and after that would come the hard work of actually integrating the two companies, something that will be made more difficult if Yahoo’s senior management is still bearing grudges from the takeover fight. I’ve pointed out before that culture is extremely important in high tech firms. Companies need to attract the best talent, and talented programmers want to work where the most innovative work is being done. Right now, Google already has an edge over Yahoo! and Microsoft on that front, and the gap is only going to widen if they spend the next two years beating each others’ brains out. It’s not at all clear that the Microsoft-Yahoo merger would make sense even if it were done with the support of Yahoo’s current management; it’s a doubly bad idea if it involves all the nastiness that would come with a hostile takeover.

Filed Under: acquisitions, hostile bid, integration
Companies: microsoft, yahoo

Microsoft Gives Vista Backdoor Keys To The Police

(Mis)Uses of Technology

from the meaning-the-crooks-have-it-too dept

It’s long been assumed that Microsoft has built in various “backdoors” for law enforcement to get around its own security, but now reader Kevin Stapp writes in to let us know that the company has also been literally handing out the keys to law enforcement. Apparently, they’re giving out special USB keys that simply get around Microsoft’s security, allowing the holder of the key to very quickly get forensic information (including internet surfing history), passwords and supposedly encrypted data off of a laptop. While you can understand why police like this, the very fact that the backdoor is there and that a bunch of these USB keys are out there pretty much guarantees that those with nefarious intent also have such keys. The second you build in such backdoors, no matter how noble the reason, you can rest assured that they will be used by criminals as well. No matter what, for those of you who didn’t already know it, now you have more evidence as to why trusting Microsoft’s “security” isn’t such a good idea. Update: Some folks in the comments, and Ed Bott, claim that this post is a misreading of the original story. The USB key includes a bunch of standard tools, not access to a “backdoor.” The confusion, on my part, was due to the original article claiming that the device “can decrypt passwords and analyze a computer’s Internet activity, as well as data stored in the computer.” In saying so, it appeared that the device must have access to a backdoor to decrypt the password — but an update claims that it’s merely “password security auditing technologies.”

Filed Under: backdoor, security, vista
Companies: microsoft

Microsoft Finally Kills Off Datacasting SPOT Watches

Failures

from the about-time dept

Back in 2003, we were pretty hard on Microsoft for its datacasting SPOT watches. There were so many reasons for such a thing to fail. Just as mobile phones with data access were becoming fancier, more affordable and more ubiquitous, Microsoft was trying to convince people to buy expensive, bulky watches that required you to pay money to access tiny bits of data that you could easily get for free elsewhere. To be honest, after the watches launched to a ton of hype, they disappeared so quickly from the scene that I had thought they were already dead. But Engadget now confirms that Microsoft has finally killed off those SPOT watches. Other than these announcements, somehow I get the feeling not too many people will notice.

Filed Under: datacasting, microsoft spot, watches
Companies: microsoft