Shocker: Carriers Overly Optimistic On 3G Uptake And ARPU

Could it really be that wireless carriers might be overly optimistic on 3G offerings? The very same wireless carriers who have a history of overhyping just about every new wireless technology before it’s even launched, suggesting that it will solve all the world’s problems and be the perfect wireless technology for everyone? Is it really a surprise at all that Forrester is now saying that those very same carriers who told us we’d all be surfing the web from our phones using superfast 3G offerings half a decade ago might be a tad overly optimistic about both the rate of consumer adoption of 3G and the ARPU they’ll be getting? About the only people who don’t seem to know this already are folks in the press. It seems that even the carriers really know this at heart, but can’t bring themselves to admit it. However, in the meantime, Forrester thinks that coverage, availability of good phones and customer desire is likely to hold back adoption — and that when adoption comes, users won’t pay as much as the carriers hope (wonder where they got that idea from?). To be honest, this simply sounds like the typical rollout plan of a wireless service: hype, disillusionment, price drops, someone declaring it “dead,” and then real adoption will occur.

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