ExTwitter Ad Revenue Continues To Be In Free Fall

from the that's-not-a-good-look dept

Last week, exTwitter’s CEO-in-name-only Linda Yaccarino gave what is the cringiest interviews I’ve ever seen at the Code Conference. Multiple people told me they couldn’t watch more than a few minutes of it. It’s so bad. She is barely listening, extremely dismissive of important questions, and acting as if people are lucky to hear her. It’s awful.

It’s also embarrassing. Her whole thing is that she’s supposed to be the adult in the room, and it was clear that she was wholly unprepared for a series of fairly basic questions that anyone in her position had to know were going to be asked. She deflected, she acted cagey, she went off on weird tangents, and seemed almost entirely unaware of her audience.

Anyway, at one point in discussing the fact that ad revenue on the platform has collapsed, she suggested that advertisers were coming back. She said that reports of about 60% of ad revenue going away were “months and months old information,” and that “90% of the top 100 advertisers have returned to the platform.” That’s… weird in its own way. If you’re talking about 100 advertisers, you can just say “90 of the top 100.” You don’t need to say percent. It’s the same.

Then she claimed “in the last 12 weeks alone, about 1500 have returned.”

So, anyway, the “months and months old information” came directly from Elon Musk himself literally a month ago in (falsely) blaming the ADL.

That’s September 4th. Yaccarino’s interview was September 27th. That’s not “months and months old information.”

And, now there’s more data confirming it. Ad analytics company Guideline shared data with Reuters showing not just that ad revenue has dropped, but that it has been pretty consistently down ever since Musk took over.

Oof?

I mean, you can argue that after December and January things got… better? Slightly? But, basically, they start dropping again every time Elon embraces some fringe crackpot, and raises up bigotry. See how things were getting slightly better in February before dropping in March? At the end of February was when Elon supported Dilbert creator Scott Adams’ ignorant racist tirade.

Then things started trending slightly upwards (though still way down from last year) in April and May before dropping drastically in June and July. In May was when Elon went after George Soros, using antisemitic tropes.

It’s almost as if (as we’ve noted) advertisers directly view Elon Musk himself as a liability. Given that Musk has continued to embrace more ignorant bigotry in September, I imagine that there may be another downturn, no matter what Yaccarino says.

And, again, literally all of this was avoidable. Elon could have kept revenue on the platform effectively constant, just by… not being an ignorant bigot and not supporting other ignorant bigots. It’s not difficult.

Meanwhile, Yaccarino has to take these terrible numbers and convince the banks who lent Elon $13 billion of the $44 billion he needed that their investment is still good, even though Elon himself has admitted the value has cratered by at least 50% and newer estimates say the real valuation may be closer to $8 billion. When a news organization as vanilla as Reuters is now running headlines saying “Elon Musk’s X is a black hole of value,” and has a credible explanation of how the company might be lucky to have a valuation of $8 billion, people have to start to realize what a colossal fuckup this whole thing has been, entirely because Elon literally has no one around him he can listen to that will tell him he has no clue what he’s doing and just keeps making everything worse.

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Companies: twitter, x

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Comments on “ExTwitter Ad Revenue Continues To Be In Free Fall”

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33 Comments
Anonymous Coward says:

Re:

Seems she is more like a sort of “yes-woman” (the perfect CEO). He’s got the money, she’s got the job, so she tries to work hard to make things not looking so bad.

Sure she would feel lonely in this shit job, making excuses for the daily shit storm, and certainly already regret it.

I’m sure she won’t be “CEO” by ’24, too bad since she will not see Twitter/X being profitable again…

This comment has been deemed insightful by the community.
Anonymous Coward says:

Re:

It was in the Reuter’s article. Obviously, the exact valuation is difficult to know unless the owners of the company release documents, or hire someone to come in and audit the place:

Put it all together, and X isn’t just worth less than Musk paid for it, but likely less than its debt. Assume that the company’s revenue last year was $4.7 billion, based on results before it was taken private. If advertising has dropped by half, then this year’s sales should be a bit over $2.5 billion. Put that on the same enterprise-value-to-sales multiple as Snap, which is down to a mere 3 times, and X is worth around $8 billion.

Anonymous Coward says:

Re: Re:

That’s a back-of-the-envelope calculation by a journalist based on one data point, but OK, I suppose it counts as an estimate of Twitter’s value. Mike wrote “estimates”, plural, and the link to the Reuters piece is framed as either a corroboration of those estimates or a hint that they could be too high.

Rocky says:

Re:

From the Reuters “black-hole” article (last link in the story above):

Put it all together, and X isn’t just worth less than Musk paid for it, but likely less than its debt. Assume that the company’s revenue last year was $4.7 billion, based on results before it was taken private. If advertising has dropped by half, then this year’s sales should be a bit over $2.5 billion. Put that on the same enterprise-value-to-sales multiple as Snap, which is down to a mere 3 times, and X is worth around $8 billion.

But that number doesn’t take into account what the market actually believe it’s worth, because that depends on more factors like for example trust in how the company is run and how financially stable it is.

Zach says:

I’m no fan of anything related to X. But in fairness to Linda Y:

She’d found out earlier in the day that Kara Swisher, a Code Conference co-founder, had booked a surprise guest to appear an hour before her: Yoel Roth

Up until recently Kara Swisher was pretty in the tank for Elon, so I can understand Linda being pretty unhappy with that treatment.

Still, X sucks.

This comment has been flagged by the community. Click here to show it.

Matthew Bennett says:

Oof man, that's a lot of lying.

First of all, those numbers from Guideline are estimates, and Yaccarino was saying they were “coming back”, not that they were back to old levels. Keep in mind the costs are a lot lower now, too, kinda the point.

At the end of February was when Elon supported Dilbert creator Scott Adams’ ignorant racist tirade.

It was only racist if your reading comprehension was poor. Or you’re a partisan leftist. (that’s both you and CNN, btw)

In May was when Elon went after George Soros, using antisemitic tropes.

This is an even bigger lie. Most people wouldn’t even know he’s Jewish but for any time a conservative explains what a monster he is some Leftist will claim it’s “anti-semitic”. There are no “Tropes” here. Soros is just an awful human who is responsible for a good chunk of the crime wave US cities are undergoing. Nothing about that has anything to do with him being Jewish. Guess what, the ADL routinely plays the race card, all leftists do these days, it’s part of the game. Fuck the ADL, they’re awful. See? That’s not Anit-semitic, either, I dislike them cuz of shit like this. SPLC-lite they’ve become.

I thought this peaked when lefties would claim anyone disagreeing with Obama was racist. That didn’t really fly, but gotta keep on trying, right?

Good thing we’re kicking people off SM for “hate speech”, amiright? Cuz it turns out, “Hate speech” is whatever a leftist wants it to be, especially when losing an argument

This comment has been deemed insightful by the community.
mick says:

Re:

Lifelong conservative here: You’re a nut, Elon’s a bigot just like Scott Adams, and Soros is pretty much irrelevant to just about everything unless you’re a) a recipient of his political contributions, or b) an idiot conspiracy theorist.

Your entire screed is fact-free, and based entirely in fantasy and fanboidom.

Not everyone who disagrees with you is a “leftists”; some of us are just educated and choose not to live in fantasyland.

That Anonymous Coward (profile) says:

Re:

IT HURTS MY EYES!!!!
So we’re removing snippets from links, and we’re gonna remove all the other buttons & stuff unless you click into a post so my eyes stop hurting.

Oh… oh hell.,, its Elon think.
If they don’t know if its a picture or a link, people will end up following links they might not have otherwise followed and then we can show advertisers how many clicks we are generating them and then Kraft will TOTALLY come running back to put Kraft Dinner ads next to the Proud Boys discussing why white is right!!!

This comment has been deemed insightful by the community.
Anonymous Coward says:

entirely because Elon literally has no one around him he can listen to that will tell him he has no clue what he’s doing and just keeps making everything worse.

… and that’s entirely a self-own, since every time someone criticized him to his face, he used Trump’s line: “You’re fired”.

That One Guy (profile) says:

Re: ... One sec, turns out the answer is 'any sane one'

Personally I’m not seeing what the problem is for the advertisers, I mean what company wouldn’t want their brand associated with an ever-snowballing dumpster-fire run by a petulant and spiteful manchild who will step in and defend the most heinous of people when he’s not using his power to ban people who make fun of him, and where ‘verification’ is for sale and identity fraud is therefore trivial and potentially very costly.

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