How Much Is Amazon Worth?
from the looking-at-the-fundamentals dept
It’s funny how articles like the following couldn’t be found a year ago. Here’s an article that takes a close look at what Amazon.com is doing and how much their stock should be worth. The conclusion? A little over $3. I’m not sure I agree with all the assumptions and conclusions he puts into the article, but it does bring up some very good points about Amazon’s growth rate, and the likley profit margin they can eke out of certain businesses. The Economist is running a similar article that looks at what Amazon is worth and they also suggest it’s probably still overvalued.
Comments on “How Much Is Amazon Worth?”
The Problem with Hockey sticks and blind dog legs
IMHO the issue is market size. I have seen this problem in every business not just Amazon. My issue was books are books and even with there attempt to be media, it is fundamentally a piece of an existing pie and not the whole pie. All the projections in the past expanded beyond reasonable thought.
I have a friend who worked on the marketing of a drug that worked on ulcers. He got nervous when the market forecast exceed the population of the country let alone the people with ulcers.
We have this problem with many companies in telecommunications. Fundamentally, free phone service expanded the market, but it did change the dynamic of most phone calls. The projections that surf to talk would eat the phone companies alive were equally flawed.
I don’t work enjoy forecasts with hockey stick market projections. Mixing metaphors if you are golfing and you don’t know the turn of the dog leg its hard to place the ball.
Where do you find the $3 figure? The author of the first article gives his best-case and worst-case estimates as $17.30 and $6.80 per share.
Haha!! Last night when I posted it the number was definitely $3.40. Apparently he must have made some sort of mistake in his math and went back and changed it afterwards… Funny how it’s just different now without any mention of the original mistake. Too bad I don’t have an archived version of the original…
Re: Re: $3?
Who were we at war with yesterday again?