Predicting The Future

from the is-that-the-best-you-can-do? dept

Everyone tries to predict the future when it comes to technology. Here’s yet another try. This one is okay, but goes for all the obvious choices that everyone has been talking about for months. Wireless is big, broadband is for everyone. We’ve heard this all before. I also think that a lot of his predictions are based on the idea that everything stays as they are now. For instance, he predicts that Blackberry (from RIM) will blow Palm and Handspring away. While this may be true, I think it’s pretty shortsighted to assume that Palm and Handspring won’t fight back with competitive devices of their own.

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Comments on “Predicting The Future”

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Ryan says:

Talking about the future....

I just got back from “The next 20 years”, a very cool set of lectures here in London. I have to agree with you mike, a lot of people believe that you can predict these trends in things as small as dominance of one handheld brand over the other, it’s a thought that isn’t supported and therefore just a possibility rather than a trend.

P.S. Check me out in the Q&A for my question on nanotechnology, it’ll be on the web feed at the the next twenty years site for London. ๐Ÿ˜‰

mhh5 says:

Why does everyone agree with Mike?

Just cuz he moderates this site? Sometimes I wonder if he “big-brothers” the comments to control what techdirt readers are allowed to think. OK. I know he doesn’t (otherwise many of my past comments would’ve been deleted), but isn’t that a cool paranoid delusion that he’d have that much free time? ๐Ÿ™‚

Seriously, though, this article isn’t really predicting anything really “out there”… which is probably why he’s going to be wrong. It’s like predicting larger diameter pipes when plumbing was first invented. And you’d totally be wrong about the popularity of bottled water….

Mike (profile) says:

Re: Why does everyone agree with Mike?

Me? “Big Brother” comments? How dare you think such a thing… I’m the “benevolent dictator” around these parts. ๐Ÿ™‚ Actually, in the history of Techdirt I have deleted one comment (a pointless obnoxious insult laden comment directed at me – and not the article posted – for no particular reason. I think the guy had just discovered that he could comment and thought it would be cool if he trashed me personally because that would prove how totally cool he was), and never edited a single one.

Actually, I wish more people would speak up and disagree with me already. The site is a lot more fun when we have arguments. You people are way too boring. Either that or I really am right all the time, and we all know that my ego doesn’t need that sort of satisfaction.

Little Brother says:

Re: Re: Why does everyone agree with Mike?

I disagree with Mikes lots and lots, but I just can’t be bothered posting responses simply because I don’t want to get involved with what can degenerate into flame wars when opposing political and philosophical views meet up. Look what happens on /. – hundreds of bonehead ignorant posts and if you disagree with them or point out where they are wrong, then hundreds more. Posters need to realise two things (at the very least), USA != the world (whatever they might think) and Computing was around before 1990. (Techdirters are generally much better informed of course….)

Ryan says:

Re: Re: Re: Why does everyone agree with Mike?

I agree that the presently it seems that the USA=World but that will soon start to change as the composition of net users changes from being primarily US users to primarily global (with US users being in the minority). I wonder which VC’s will make that global leap (or die in Sand Hill), any guesses?

Mike (profile) says:

Re: Re: Re: Why does everyone agree with Mike?

I’m not trying to create flame wars, but informed discussions. I realize that a lot of times they degenerate into flame wars, but for the most part, any time there have been serious disagreements on Techdirt they haven’t gone that badly. I’d like to attribute it to the high quality readership we have. ๐Ÿ™‚

Anyway, who knows how much better informed we are. I actually don’t think that’s the case. Sure, I know computing was around pre-1990, and occasionally I even remember some history to make a point, but there’s just too much going on for any one person to really be as informed as they’d like to be. We’re all going to make completely stupid posts from time to time, but I hope that people reading them here call us on it, so that we know better next time…

mhh5 says:

Re: Re: Re:2 Why does everyone agree with Mike?

No one likes flame wars. I personally hate them. Which is why I simply stop posting when they start. And I think I’ve been around Techdirt long enough to confidently say, there are almost no flame wars here. But whether that’s a consequence of no one commenting or no comment thread being longer than ten comments…. So come on, Techdirt readers, disagree with Mike! ๐Ÿ™‚

Sorry, Mike, I just hate it when you’re right….

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