rosspruden 's Techdirt Comments

Latest Comments (104) comment rss

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 08:16pm

    I'm done.

    Somehow, we've had a loss of respect in this conversation. I'm trying to be reasonable, and civil, and you're giving me nothing. I was happy to have this conversation earlier, but I think I'm done here.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 08:13pm

    Workers vs. Partners

    This is a nuanced point I didn't want to get into because I was typing on my phone, but here's a more detailed version. Writers are employees. They are hired to do a job and they have zero risk if their project flops. They accept an agreed-upon wage per project, along with benefits the WGA has negotiated so writers can have a decent living. Lower risk = lower pay. Producers are management. They don't do the work themselves, they hire everything out. But they do assume risk—huge risk. If a project they produce flops, it can prematurely end their career. In the worst case, the entire studio can go under. Greater risk = greater pay. If writer wants to be paid more, to be paid like a producer, they could consider assuming greater risk. Not a huge amount, but 1-10% seems fair. If their project tanks, they lose big. If the project explodes, they win big. I'm not saying all their income comes from a profit percentage, but maybe 10-20% of their income? Certainly it should be offered it as an option. Perhaps writers don't like that level of risk. Perhaps they just want to punch in, do a job, and go home. Guess what? That means they're just employees and that also means they should expect to be treated as employees. They don't take any risks. But they also get paid according to that level of risk. So. What is an equitable arrangement when producers want to pay the least amount of money possible and writers wants to be paid the most amount of money possible? If you're a writer and you only want to be an employee—with zero desire for risk—then surprise! It's going to be an uphill battle to fight for more pay from the studios. If you're a producer and you want to minimize expenses, of course you're going to want to streamline as much of the production process as you reasonably can—to get the best possible creative output for the least amount of money possible (and that means employing new tools like AI). When you win big, you buy a yacht. When you lose big, you get fired, blackballed, or both. It's big stakes, high stress... and accordingly big paychecks. Producers aren't villains... they're just acting according to their interests. As are writers. Perhaps the WGA as a whole can be given a percentage of all movies' profits (before notorious Hollywood accounting depletes everything). Then writers aren't mere employees but partners with a vested interest. Imagine how huge studio profits could then benefit writers as a whole? What if the the WGA could pay writers a decent living wage (paid from studio profits) and then studios could supplement that on a per-project basis? That will never happen, unfortunately. But that would definitely sidestep the whole AI-is-stealing-my-job issue.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 07:19pm

    Apologies

    Did not mean to offend, but you must see the analogy. Some neurodivergent people seem superhuman in their abilities. Do you disagree?

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 07:17pm

    Not being rude but...

    ...this comment was so unintelligible that I first suspected it was written by AI. Was it?

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 07:15pm

    Accept it, or perish.

    I'm not trying to put artists out of business—I'm telling artists that they will go out of business unless they embrace AI as a new tool. (Or define themselves to their fans in such a way that fans flock to them because they don't use AI. It sounds as if you want me to advocate for some sort of regulation or legislation that somehow protects artists. That's a fool's errand—AI is already here, it will soon be ubiquitous, and you'd better get used to it in a hurry or you will indeed go out of business. An artist's best strategy to stay in business is to remain competitive, and that means—like it or not—using AI.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 07:04pm

    We stand on the shoulders of those who came before

    It’s an interesting point. I don’t think anyone is really paid much attention to it. Personally, I think it’s a red herring. Humans read voraciously and use all that data collection as inspirations for new works of art. And the broad strokes, I don’t really see how this is any different from what AI does. The only difference is really the speed AI can learn and its ability to retain what it learns. Imagine I had an autistic screenwriter who remembered everything and could quote entire works of literature verbatim. If he wrote a screenplay and I handed it to you and said, “this was written by AI”, the same objections of “plagiarism” et al would come up. Are we then going to insist that the autistic screenwriter forget entire works of literature because it’s not fair he has those in his memory when he is writing a screenplay? Of course not.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 06:52pm

    The market will decide

    You may be right, but bad writing from AI will get panned by critics and audiences. Or not. Either way, the market will pay for what it wants to see more of.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 06:49pm

    Moore’s Law is a good metaphor

    I absolutely think this technology will continue to improve an exponential rate. My anecdotal evidence seems to verify it; every week (sometimes twice a week) offers up some major new technological advancement with AI. Is this a hunch? Sure. But I’m not the only one who’s worried about it, as I see headlines all the time how AI engineers are freaked out. So I’m going to go with my gut on this one.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 06:45pm

    Free to create for its own sake

    I think the end goal here is to free everyone from doing a job that they do not have to do. To be able to pursue whatever they want simply because they enjoy doing it. Obviously, that’s a utopian vision, but I think that’s ultimately what everyone wants. Maybe some people enjoy working themselves to death in a job they hate, but for some reason, I don’t think that’s exactly true, is it? Because the future I see is a future where AI and Robots are doing all the scut work and we are finally free to be able to work on improving society for its own good. If you are hearing a chorus of “universal basic income” in the background, that’s not by accident. I fully think this is where we are going as a society, and I’m quite certain there will be plenty of social upheaval along the way as people discover that AI‘s can do their jobs better than they can. Obviously, I think we are decades away from that, but we are starting to see the first blips in how automation is taking over our lives. It began with the Industrial Revolution (I don’t see anyone complaining about how automated machines removed our need to harvest or hunt for food, or wash our clothes, or what have you), this is just the next major chapter.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 06:17pm

    Less time doing bad work

    I am extrapolating from the larger truth that automation increases productivity, which means we get more time to do other things. That also means you’re free to do other work if you so choose or spend time with your family or whatever. Instead of working 18 months on one project, if I could use AI to work only 16 months and then use the extra two months to work on a completely different project, that would be a productivity boost unavailable to me previously. Same amount of time, but able to work on more projects. Or not. Maybe I spend time with my family. The point is, automation is a tool to make writers who embrace it more efficient, and thus more competitive.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 06:08pm

    What will you do with your free time?

    In the future: Bad news? AI can do almost everything now. Good news: AI can never be fully human. The whole comment thread here is essentially an acknowledgment that 1) AI is here to stay; 2) it’s going to be massively disruptive to everything; and 3) your most competitive strategy is to embrace it, warts and all. Bemoan that all you want, but it won’t change anything.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 06:01pm

    The market always chooses

    This is the ultimate metric. When consumers can’t tell if it’s written by AI, or more surprisingly, prefer it because it’s written by AI, then the market will lean away from human-centered art. I’m agnostic about that. Will it suck for writers? Yes. Totally. Devastatingly. But maybe the best place to be in this race is learning how to use the best tools available, instead of petulantly refusing to use them?

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 03:48pm

    That's the curse of a free market—everyone can compete and there's no guarantee you can win. I mean, let me just add here: I want everyone in the world who wants to write to be able to write without ever having to worry about mortgage or benefits or whatever. But what I want and what I think the market should support (or not support) are two different things. The WGA is taking a decidedly anti-competitive stance and positioning writers to be disrupted from non-WGA competitors. I don't think that the right way to "take care" of writers. Actually, I think it's the opposite. Rather, writers should be leading the charge to master this new tech so that they can never be disrupted by noobs.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 03:39pm

    WWPD?

    Imagine you're a producer for a moment. What would you do? You have access to these incredible tools that can save a huge amount of money when applied across the board to all the products you're managing. That money you save can go into created more projects, to hire more writers, more cinematographers, more makeup, etc. Sure, you can be skeptical and say it might all go up a producer's nose, but imagine if it made the difference between 1 extra film/year? Isn't that worth a try? Personally, I think writers should be cut a percentage of every movie they're involved in. Then they're not employees—they're partners. And partners always have a different perspective on the bottom line.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 03:33pm

    Can you even tell the difference?

    If I handed you two treatments—one written by a human and one not—do you think you could always immediately tell the difference? More importantly, even if you could tell it was written by AI but it still got the gist across, would you even care? My bet is that most producers wouldn't care. And even if they did, that attitude will likely change as AI becomes more prevalent in our daily lives.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 03:29pm

    Plurality

    Fair point. I'll concede that. I don't actually know how the WGA leadership arrived at their position, but I think it's safe to assume they represent screenwriters at least in the same way that a government represents its citizens. If the WGA leadership is way off topic, they'll get voted out. So I'm betting they speak for the majority. I'd love to be a fly on the wall to see what their strategy was here. Was it, "Let's start with zero tolerance and walk it back from there"?

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 03:10pm

    I think you got the most important point I was trying to make. A lot of people think I'm all about Eff the writers, too bad for them, blah blah blah. I'm not. I love writers, and think they deserve to earn a decent living. But they're going to lose the battle sooner or later. They are coachmen in your analogy.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 03:04pm

    2023 is the inflection year

    A more likely outcome: 1) The WGA forces studios to only use human content. 2) Non-WGA unpaid noob filmmakers around the world start creating content outside of the WGA's limitations. 3) AI gets smarter and creates content indistinguishable from Hollywood content. 4) Amateur filmmakers create and publish highly polished 3–5 minute movies on YouTube. Then 10 minute movies, then 20 minute, then 1 hour. 5) Feature films are "suddenly" generated in less than a month, a week, a day. 6) Hollywood finally wakes up and realizes that 20-30 YouTube channels run by an army of 20 year olds (who grew up mastering AI prompts) has eclipsed their view time. Instead of being the innovators, Hollywood will have been beaten by more nimble competitors unwilling to abide by union restrictions on what tools they can and can't use. Disruptive innovation at its finest.

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 02:49pm

    Let the writers do what they do best.

    If AI can do what writers do, what can a writer do that AI can't?

  • On the post: The Writers’ Strike Makes Sense; Their Demands About AI, However, Do Not

    rosspruden ( profile ), 11 May, 2023 @ 02:48pm

    If AI can do your job, what job can you do?

    No, I didn't say that. You seem to be intentionally misreading what I'm saying, so let me clarify. Let's assume a single writer spends 1 month building the premise for a movie, 1 year writing it, and 6 months in rewrites. If I, as a writer, could shave off 2 months of that time by using Ai, am I doing less work? Yes. But hold on—what am I doing with those extra 2 months? I'M WRITING MORE. So on thew one hand, I'm working less... but on the other, I'm also being more productive and can actually do all the stuff I'd rather be doing anyway—writing the scenes, tightening the dialog, fleshing out the world building. Basically, all the stuff AI is crap at. Remember, I'm in strong support of writers getting paid more fairly in all other points of their strike. But if AI can do some heavy lifting here and there to free me up so I do more work—the more rewarding work—why wouldn't I want to do that?

Next >>