Frontline Shuts Down; Spectrum Buying No Place For Startups Apparently

Failures

from the can't-upset-the-world-without-some-money dept

There was tremendous hype and a number of big names behind the wireless startup Frontline, who was talked up as a possible upstart bidder (and potential winner) for a segment of the spectrum that the FCC is auctioning off later this month. However, if one thing has become clear over the years, spectrum auctions are not a game for startups to play — as unfortunate as that may be. On Tuesday, the news came out that Frontline had shut down after it was unable to find financial backers to pony up all the money it needed. There are some questions about this, as some of the company’s early supporters represent a ton of money, but some are noting that this could actually cause something of a domino effect impacting all of the spectrum being auctioned off. There are a variety of rules and hurdles that various bidders need to meet, and if those hurdles aren’t cleared, then the FCC can cancel the auction and try again — with different rules that could toss out the open access requirements the FCC put in place. It’s not clear if that will actually happen, but it appears to increase the likelihood significantly.

Filed Under: auction, spectrum
Companies: frontline

Forget Google, Watch Out For Chevron In The 700 MHz Auction

Wireless

from the my-ISP-is-Chevron? dept

Everybody’s been buzzing about the likelihood of Google bidding on the 700 MHz spectrum that’s up for auction in a few weeks, that’s allowed a few other interesting characters to get in on the auction below the radar. The FCC has now announced that 266 separate entities have filed to take part in the auction, so it’s quite a long list. So far, only 96 applications have been accepted, but the others have until January 4th to get their applications in order. Everyone knew Google was on the list, and it’s no surprise to hear names like Verizon Wireless, Alltel, MetroPCS, Vodafone and AT&T (who already got a head start buying some other spectrum in the 700 MHz realm earlier). There was some speculation about cable companies participating, and sure enough, Cox and Cablevision will show up at the auction. Then there are a few surprises. Qualcomm is planning to bid — which could upset some of the US carriers who consider Qualcomm more of a partner than a competitor.

In a list of 266 companies, there are always going to be some long shots — but it still doesn’t hurt to point out some of the more interesting bidders. Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen plans to bid via his Vulcan Spectrum LLC (reusing his favorite “Vulcan” name for companies). It’s unclear what he would do with the spectrum. Perhaps even more surprising is the news that oil giant Chevron is planning to participate. What the company would do with the spectrum should it win (and it certainly has the money to win) is an open question, but there are a few intriguing ideas. As for Google, don’t hold your breath for a win here. It has seemed pretty clear from the beginning that the company is only in the auction to bid $4.6 billion — the lowest point necessary to force open access rules to kick in. It would be a huge surprise if the company bid much more than that, and it would be an even bigger surprise if no one outbid Google.

Filed Under: 700 mhz, fcc, paul allen, spectrum, spectrum auction
Companies: at&t, chevron, fcc, google, verizon

Verizon Wireless' Triple [Open] Play

Predictions

from the competitive-pressures-at-work dept

The recent announcement that Verizon Wireless will support Android, Google’s new software platform for mobile devices, is an early warning sign that the traditional network operator model is fast becoming obsolete. To some this move seems to contradict a widely held presumption that two previous announcements (the choice of LTE with Vodafone and the inclusion of non-Verizon phones on the Verizon Wireless network) were a competitive strike at Google’s position in the upcoming 700 mHz auction. In conjunction, these three publicly declared commitments to openness are indicators that fundamental changes to the Verizon Wireless business model are set to occur over the next 3 – 5 years. Verizon Wireless is preparing to compete in an industry that will resemble more of a free-for-all where innovation and customer value are the rule of the day. Verizon can no longer afford to maintain strict boundaries between the devices and applications “inside” and “outside” their networks. By embracing openness on several different fronts the company is seeking to offload a large chunk of the costs associated with developing devices to a wider ecosystem of participants. Inclusive device policies will retain the same effect that outsourcing the development and support costs for new phones would. It is no longer tenable to develop devices and support customer issues for every single customer on its network, so the company is looking to basically exchange network access for ownership of support issues, with a larger group of handset and application providers.

Particularly, the Android move is to ensure that an assortment of niche devices powered by Google’s platform will have a home on the Verizon Wireless network. The company should begin to feature an increasing number of programs and incentives for an increasing number of handset makers and wireless application developers. Meanwhile Verizon will begin to slash the high costs associated with developing phones with the Samsung and LG types. As a result, the number of phone models actually supported by the company (currently at around 50) is set to drop significantly by 2012 even as the total number of models running on the network will escalate.

As the most profitable U.S. cellular business, Verizon Wireless also has the most impetus to begin the process of expanding a revenue base limited to subscribers who are content to choose from 50 or so the company’s handsets. Spurred by a shrinking number of first time customers it is fast becoming critical to find ways to attract subscribers from rival carriers and open access policies are a good start towards that end. Along the same lines, the aforementioned Vodafone LTE announcement is key to the company’s strategic play for subscribers who, in the past, shunned Verizon Wireless for carriers that enable easier roaming. The goal is to extend the availability of “America’s most reliable network” to both sides of the Atlantic to boost the value proposition of becoming a Verizon wireless customer.

Verizon’s open evolution is a response to the limited growth opportunities faced by US mobile carriers in the face of market saturation (250 million across the country already have cell phones). Over the next 2-3 years what is now a rumbling from consumers will expand into smoldering demand for choices on wireless networks that reflect the nature of those provided on landlines. In effect the company realizes that it must adapt to an open-centric marketplace to compete and survive over the long haul, not just in the upcoming 700 MHz auctions. In doing so, Verizon has begun the transformation from staunch gatekeeper of a closed network into the heart of a more open wireless ecosystem.

Filed Under: android, open, spectrum, wireless networks
Companies: verizon wireless

AT&T Buys A Little Head Start On 700 MHz Spectrum

Wireless

from the gotta-start-somewhere dept

Just as the FCC is pushing back the start of the highly anticipated 700 MHz spectrum auction, comes the news that AT&T couldn’t wait for that spectrum to come on the market and decided to buy up a different chunk of 700 MHz spectrum licenses from Aloha Partners for a mere $2.5 billion. There’s plenty of speculation about what the company is planning to do with the spectrum, with some thoughts that it’s going to ditch its Qualcomm partnership for mobile video and go it alone, but that seems like a market that’s DOA.

Instead, it seems likely that this is just the beginning of AT&T lining up to get its hands on the auctioned spectrum to combine with this batch. There’s been plenty of speculation about who might be the top bidder for the spectrum, with random startups, Google and Apple being tossed around as possible names along with the big telcos. Verizon’s been making plenty of noise (apparently both publicly and behind the scenes), but AT&T has always been up there as well. Now, that additional spectrum becomes even more valuable to AT&T, so it might be time to push up how much AT&T is likely to bid on the auctioned spectrum. And, in the worst case, if AT&T doesn’t win the auction, it can use this new spectrum it bought to try to barter a sharing arrangement — or, alternatively, as Glenn Fleishman posits, be able to keep a locked up network going, while whoever buys the auctioned spectrum will have to be more open. If true, that seems likely to backfire. It could give AT&T an initial leg up, but those walled gardens tend to have long-term problems when competing against open systems.

Filed Under: 700 mhz, spectrum
Companies: at&t

Invasion Of The TV Snatchers? White Space Devices Will Kill Us All!

Overhype

from the a-little-over-the-top dept

The debate over white space spectrum has gone on for quite some time. Basically, the FCC handed out a ton of spectrum (for free, mind you) to TV broadcasters years ago. In order to prevent against interference, there’s always been a requirement for some “buffer” space. However, as technology has improved, the need for this buffer space has decreased, and plenty of tech companies would be interested in making use of some of that basically unused spectrum by having it set aside as open spectrum. Earlier this year, some of those companies, led by Microsoft and Google, delivered a device to the FCC to test. Unfortunately, the device had some problems. However, the concept is sound — and with some tweaking, it’s quite reasonable that such a device could work without interfering with TV signals. But you wouldn’t know that from broadcasters, who love to hoard their spectrum. Matthew Lasar writes in to note that in responding to the device, the broadcasters have gone way over the top in describing the horrible things that will happen if the white space is made available:

“Why would the FCC consider allowing millions and millions of these interference causing devices, like ‘germs,’ to spread throughout America with the ability to attack the TV receivers in people’s homes, apartments, hotel rooms, hospital rooms, dormitories, etc., with no way for the owner of the TV set (the ‘victim’) to determine who was causing the ‘illness’ to his or her TV set?”

They also suggest that allowing this white space to be used would “risk the outrage of America’s citizenry.” Of course, it’s important to remember that only a small percentage of TV watchers actually run this risk. The vast majority of TV owners in the US have cable or satellite TV — meaning that they don’t use the over-the-air broadcasts that use the spectrum in question. So, the “outrage” would be limited to the small group of people who still use over-the-air systems to watch broadcast TV and are close enough to a device that uses this white space in the unlikely situation when that device might temporarily interfere with their TV signals. But, apparently, with that tiny probability out there, opening up that white space is like a “germ” that will “attack” people’s TVs, raising the “outrage of America’s citizenry.”

Filed Under: spectrum, television, white space

WiMax Spectrum Fight With School Districts Highlights Market Distorting Effects Of Gov't Monopolies

Wireless

from the worthless-spectrum...-oh-you-want-it? dept

We’ve tried to point out how government granted monopolies can distort a market, whether it’s in the intellectual property space or within wireless spectrum. For example, take a look at what’s happening in the 2.5 gigahertz spectrum space. A bunch of 2.5 gigahertz spectrum was handed over to schools and non-profits, supposedly for use in education. The rules on those licenses were that it couldn’t be owned by for-profit businesses… but could be licensed to them. Of course, for many schools, the idea that they owned any spectrum rights at all was a complete mystery. Many valued the spectrum at absolutely nothing (which was its real value to them) and let the licenses expire. However, with Sprint’s latest focus on WiMax, it could make use of more 2.5 GHz spectrum. It already owns a bunch, but not enough. So, of course, now that this spectrum is suddenly valuable to Sprint, schools are scrambling to renew expired licenses to the spectrum they valued at absolutely nothing, in order to turn around and license it to Sprint for quite a bit of money. In other words, you have a natural resource given to schools absolutely free. They didn’t value it and didn’t have any use for it at all. Then, a company comes along that actually can do something useful with that spectrum, and the schools are suddenly setting roadblocks in their way. That doesn’t seem like a particularly useful thing — but thanks to another set of gov’t granted monopolies, combined with a complete lack of a comprehensive spectrum allocation policy from the FCC, it’s what we’re left with.

Filed Under: spectrum, wimax
Companies: clearwire, sprint

Verizon Decides It Doesn't Like Open-Access Wireless Rules After All

Wireless

from the damn-competition dept

Discussion of the upcoming auction for licenses for 700 MHz spectrum has been dominated by the desire of Google and other groups to have “open-access” rules put in place. These rules would force license winners to sell wholesale access to their networks, allow any compatible device to be used on them, and follow net neutrality principles. The FCC paid some lip service to the issue by attaching just two of the conditions (net neutrality and allowing the use of any compatible device) to just a portion of the spectrum, and adding that the conditions will be dropped and the auction for the relevant licenses restarted without them if a reserve price of $4.6 billion isn’t met. This was a political show that made it look like the FCC was taking some action, but the likely overall impact on the market will be minimal. Perhaps what made it clear that the rules were toothless and wouldn’t have much competitive impact was the fact that incumbent telcos AT&T and Verizon voiced some support for them. But it would appear Google execs’ comments that the company will “probably” bid on the spectrum, even though the FCC didn’t adopt all its proposed principles has spooked Verizon, as the telco is now suing the FCC, saying it overstepped its authority in putting the conditions on the licenses.

When it looked like the open-access rules wouldn’t have any effect, and that the auction for the licenses with them wouldn’t attract enough buyers to hit that $4.6 billion reserve price, Verizon went the politically and PR-expedient route and voiced its support for them. Now that it looks like Google’s going to be ready to pounce on the spectrum and pay the reserve price, Verizon contends the rules are illegal. Without the involvement of Google or another deep-pocketed bidder, Verizon could wait for the auction to restart without the rules, then pick up the spectrum free from the open-access rules. Since it looks like Google will bid up to the reserve price, Verizon faces the prospect of getting caught in a bidding war with the company, and should it win, it would have to operate any network in the spectrum with the open-access rules — which it clearly doesn’t want to do.

Filed Under: fcc, open access, spectrum, wireless
Companies: at&t, fcc, google, verizon

FCC Not Convinced To Just Hand Over Spectrum To Startup In Exchange For Potential Future Profits

Wireless

from the FCC-prefers-its-money-upfront dept

In May of 2006, a VC-backed startup called M2Z petitioned the FCC to hand over some spectrum for free in exchange for a cut of future potential revenues. As you’re probably quite aware, the FCC has been focused lately on auctioning off slices of spectrum to private companies for use in various wireless projects. The spectrum seems to only be getting more and more valuable as demands for potential wireless applications and services increase. Of course, as we’ve seen in the past, these spectrum auctions don’t always work out so well, with companies overbidding and being unable to actually do much with the spectrum. Part of the problem is that the FCC wants to put all sorts of rules on the spectrum usage, rather than letting it be used for whatever makes the most sense, like some other countries.

However, the M2Z proposal seemed pretty questionable in its own way, promising nothing up front, and then making plenty of promises on the backend. The company claimed it would cover 95% of the country in broadband in 10 years, would have a “free” tier that was relatively slow and filtered, a more expensive upper tier, as well as offering priority for public safety uses. It may have been intriguing simply for the fact that it was different, but the FCC wasn’t convinced. As has been expected for quite some time, the FCC has rejected the proposal, though some believe that the debate over this topic may eventually lead to good things from the FCC with the spectrum it’s going to release in the near future. Of course, in the end all this really highlights is that the FCC still is focused on dribbling out bits and pieces of spectrum using different rules and regulations each time — rather than coming up with a truly comprehensive spectrum allocation plan. Of course, some of us have been pointing this out for years, and the FCC never seems to get any closer to a comprehensive spectrum allocation policy — and the country continues to suffer for it.

Filed Under: fcc, spectrum, spectrum auction, spectrum policy, wireless
Companies: fcc, m2z

Jury Out On The Impact Of 700 MHz Spectrum Auction Rules

Wireless

from the new-spectrum-same-players dept

The talk around the upcoming 700 MHz spectrum license auctions continues. After Google’s CEO earlier this week said the company would “probably” bid in the auction, even though the FCC didn’t implement the open-access provisions Google wanted, a couple of divergent opinions on the auction’s impact on the telecom landscape have come out. On the one hand, former FCC bigwig Blair Levin says the auction isn’t likely to result in a new nationwide mobile operator; on the other, a “source at a major cellular company” says the auction isn’t attractive for incumbent operators. Who to believe? As usual, the truth in somewhere in the middle, but we’re more inclined to take Levin’s view of things. Incumbent operators will likely shy away from the 22 MHz of spectrum with open-access rules — not just because they don’t want to operate under the restrictions, but also because if the auction for those licenses fails to generate $4.6 billion, the open-access rules will be lifted, and the auction will start over. Once it hits $4.6 billion on that first go-around, though, operators will bid because there’s simply too much spectrum on offer to ignore it. Their choice of technology could render the open-access rules useless, really — after all, if they pick a proprietary or unpopular technology for their network, they’ll be the only people selling compatible devices for it. When you get down to brass tacks, the incumbent operators are going to spend whatever’s necessary to acquire the spectrum, despite what anonymous sources within them say. Spectrum in general is their lifeblood, and this 700 MHz spectrum in particular has too many positive attributes for mobile broadband for them to pass up. They’ll bid aggressively to defend their turf, and if anybody is going to unseat them, it’s going to take a hell of a lot of investment.

Filed Under: fcc, open access, spectrum, wireless
Companies: at&t, frontline, google, sprint, t-mobile, verizon