The Shrinking Twitter: Most Active Users Posting Less

Predictions

from the going-down-with-the-tweet dept

It’s already bad news for Elon Musk that advertisers have been abandoning the site in droves. But, Musk keeps trying to claim that it’s worth it so long as users are using the site more. Unfortunately for him, it appears that many users are either leaving or posting a lot less. A new study from the Pew Research Center has lots of bad news for Musk.

Much of it is survey data, which I’m not sure is particularly trustworthy (what people say and what they actually do can differ widely). But, the data on how people are actually using the site seems, well, concerning (as Musk might say).

The Center’s new analysis of actual behavior on the site finds that the most active users before Musk’s acquisition – defined as the top 20% by tweet volume – have seen a noticeable posting decline in the months after. These users’ average number of tweets per month declined by around 25% following the acquisition.

It’s not that all users have left the site, of course. The same study still reports that many of the top posters have remained top posters, but it does suggest that the site may struggle to keep users or find new ones willing to engage.

A minority of adult Twitter users in the U.S. continue to produce the bulk of the content. Since Musk’s acquisition, 20% of U.S. adults on the site have produced 98% of all tweets by this group.

As for the survey part, again, it should at least raise some concerns for Musk, even though (as noted above) survey data may be less reliable than seeing what people actually do.

Six-in-ten Americans who have used Twitter in the past 12 months say they have taken a break from the platform for a period of several weeks or more during that span, while roughly four-in-ten (39%) say they have not done this, according to the survey of U.S. adults, conducted March 13-19, 2023.

[….]

The survey also asked current and recent Twitter users how likely they are to use the platform a year from now. A plurality (40%) say they are extremely or very likely to use the site in a year, and 35% say they are somewhat likely to use it. But a quarter say they are not very or not at all likely to be on Twitter a year from now.

We’ll see what actually happens. I still think inertia is more powerful than most people realize, and it’s still possible that Musk figures out ways to stop driving people away. But, at the very least, these have to be concerning, given that Musk keeps pretending that he doesn’t care about the economics (his actions show otherwise) and he only cares for Twitter to be the main place that people spend their time.

So far, instead, he seems to be driving his users away, including those who provide much of the content for the site.

Filed Under: elon musk, tweets, twitter users
Companies: twitter