If this person's numbers are close to the mark (which seems at least possible) than it's a valid risk equation. Software estimates are regularly 30% or more shy, and sales estimates are ballpark figures at best. One standard deviation on that 50,000 copies is probably 20,000.
A risk-averse assessment might look for the 95% confidence line. The analyst might be able to say 'I am 95% confident that I will sell at least 15,000 copies', and 'I am 95% confident that the product will ship within four months'. This shows quite a substantial loss and is therefore not a risk-averse decision.
Having said that, I agree with most everything else you've posted, and Ubisoft are lying in a sloppy bed built from bad press and poor quality control.
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Re: Re: basic logic
If this person's numbers are close to the mark (which seems at least possible) than it's a valid risk equation. Software estimates are regularly 30% or more shy, and sales estimates are ballpark figures at best. One standard deviation on that 50,000 copies is probably 20,000.
A risk-averse assessment might look for the 95% confidence line. The analyst might be able to say 'I am 95% confident that I will sell at least 15,000 copies', and 'I am 95% confident that the product will ship within four months'. This shows quite a substantial loss and is therefore not a risk-averse decision.
Having said that, I agree with most everything else you've posted, and Ubisoft are lying in a sloppy bed built from bad press and poor quality control.