From sources very close to the matter, I can tell that it's not happening anytime soon. The HADOPI is well aware that it can't monitor streaming activities, and it won't. Technically they can't collect IP adresses on streaming and direct download websites. But also legally speaking, watching a movie online is not counterfeiting per se. Counterfeiting is defined in French law as reproducing, making available or performing works in public without authorization. The act of simply accessing a copyrighted work is not punished. You can be prevented from copying a book, no reading it.
What is noticeable is that they try to make people believe the contrary. In their second warning, sent by paper mail, they say that "we remind you that volontary conducts of consulting (...) works protected by copyright, commonly called 'piracy', are offenses of counterfeiting punished by courts".
When I asked them why they such thing whereas it is false, they answered that the warnings "were written primarily in order to be understandable by those who receive". They never denied that they say something the law does not mandate, and they even said that people can read the law if they want an accurate view of it. That is to check they are lying.
I think your last paragraph is mistaken. Please allow me to try and tell why. As it's French law, it is not easy to explain in English, but I'll do my best. French reading fellows can refer to this story for details: http://www.numerama.com/magazine/16995-comment-free-bloque-l-hadopi-et-tacle-frank-riester-au-passag e.html
- The Hadopi law says that in order to face penalties before the court, Internet suscribers must have received at a least one previous warning by paper mail.
- It also says that in order to send this paper mail, the HADOPI must have been noticed of new infrigements which must have occured within 6 months after an e-mail was sent.
- Therefore, if the e-mail was never sent, no paper mail can be sent either, and the users can't face penalties.
Currently the law does not mandate an ISP to send the e-mails. But it does mandate them to hand out personal infos.
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