Elon May Have Accidentally Revealed How ExTwitter Usage Has Dropped Massively Since His Takeover
from the fun-with-numbers dept
Over the last few months, Elon Musk and Linda Yaccarino keep trying to claim that exTwitter is actually growing and more used than ever. Yaccarino has talked about “largest usage days” without defining the term, and Elon says it’s “user-seconds per day of phone screentime as reported by iOS & Android” even though that’s not actually a stat that anyone uses.
Meanwhile, multiple other reports have suggested otherwise. Similarweb has repeatedly noted that its stats show exTwitter’s traffic trending downward. Apptopia, which tracks app usage, has said that the actual time spent on the Twitter app has tracked downward all year since there was an initial post-Elon bump:
And a new report, again from Apptopia, is saying that its app downloads have sunk to new lows as well. Looking at Data.ai’s app download charts, the exTwitter app… is barely in the top 100 downloads. At last look, it was 96th. Which is embarrassing. More people are downloading the Jersey Mike’s app and “GeometryDash” than exTwitter.
That’s for downloads. What about usage? Well, according to Data.ai, exTwitter is now 25th in active users… right after the Samsung Clock.
But… even more notably, Elon Musk may have accidentally revealed how much exTwitter usage had dropped himself — mainly by hoping that people won’t notice how he changed the metrics being used. You see, at the same time that Elon was talking about potentially putting exTwitter behind a paywall, he also claimed that he site now has 550 million users who generate “100 million to 200 million posts per day.”
During the livestream, Musk also divulged some new metrics from X, saying it now has 550 million “monthly users,” who generate 100 million to 200 million posts per day.
Some people took that to mean that his running of exTwitter was a success, since when he took it over, the ex-Twitter (as opposed to exTwitter) management were reporting 237.8 million users. But, that’s wrong. The two things are being measured very differently, and when you break it down, Musk seems to be admitting a pretty big drop in exTwitter usage.
The 237.8 million was “mDAU” or monetizable daily active users and the first two words there are important in how Musk’s number and old Twitter’s numbers are different. As we explained (and which Musk never seemed to understand), mDAU was actually a much more conservative estimate on users, because it excluded anyone they could not monetize (meaning bots, some foreign countries, etc.). The whole point of mDAU was to be more accurate in telling advertisers how large the potential audience reach is.
Second, Twitter’s number is daily active users. Musk’s number was monthly active users. DAU/MAU ratios are actually a useful tool in determining just how sticky an app is (basically it’s looking at what percentage of your monthly users visit every day). Years ago, Sequoia Capital noted that the “industry standard” for DAU/MAU is between 10% and 20% with it being very rare for a company to be over 50%. Andrew Chen from Andreessen Horowitz has shared similar numbers, noting that if you’re DAU/MAU is 20% that’s good. And “World Class” is 50%.
Of course, this differs based on the type of app, and exTwitter is more likely to be an app that people come back to use more regularly than something like Uber or whatever. So, it seems at least somewhat likely that its DAU/MAU is somewhere closer to 50% than 20% (giving exTwitter the benefit of the doubt here!). The last stats that I found that determined a DAU/MAU for Twitter came in 2020 from The Audience Project, which put Twitter’s DAU/MAU at about 52%.
But, remember, mDAU is significantly lower than just DAU, as mDAU excludes bots and other unmonetizable accounts (remember, Musk’s big complaint was that mDAU OVER counted bots, which is why it’s hilarious that the numbers he’s now trotting out don’t even try to exclude bots). So if we assume that mDAU is 80% of DAU (which is well below Musk’s own estimate of 33% bots!), that would mean that the DAU would basically be 300 million, and if we have a 50% DAU/MAU that would put the MAU pre-Musk at around 600 million.
And now he’s bragging about… 550 million (which isn’t even in any official report, so who knows how accurate it is, given his propensity to exaggerate).
That suggests a noticeable decline in users.
Even if the mDAU/DAU ratio is closer, the MAU was at a minimum somewhere close to the 550 million he’s now claiming.
Supporting this even further, the good folks at DataReportal do phenomenal work tracking data on social media platforms, and they’ve been tracking the market that exTwitter’s own internal tools tell advertisers regarding potential market reach. And they found… something weird.
When they looked in January, Twitter’s AdManager said that there were 556 million user accounts that could be reached via ads. In April… it said 177.2 million! DataReportal knew that was too steep a drop, and reached out to Twitter, only to see that number disappear from the AdManager tool. exTwitter re-enabled the tool later in April, again with MUCH LOWER figures on accounts: 373 million. DataReportal charted all of this, and it’s… eye opening:
They note that there are many possible explanations for this change, including problems with the data, human error, and other things as well. The report goes on to conclude that traffic appears to be “slipping” but not in freefall. This would be consistent with my back of the envelope calculation above that exTwitter at 550 million monthly users is likely somewhat below the pre-Elon high of around 600 million.
But… we’re not done yet. Because the other data point Musk revealed: “100 million to 200 million posts per day” also tells us something.
That is… below what Twitter used to have. Way below. A study in 2019, that had tracked tweets per day from 2012 through 2019 showed that in 2019 tweets per day were between 320 and 340 million per day. Or… somewhere around twice what Musk is claiming today.
If Musk is accurate in saying that there are between 100 and 200 million “posts” per day (he no longer calls them tweets), that would mean not only are users dropping by some amount, and download dropping by a noticeable amount, but the number of posts per day has fallen off a cliff.
None of this speaks well to exTwitter’s chances at survival. Beyond the advertising revenue, which the company already admits is down by 50%, downloads are dropping, users appear to be dropping, and the usage by the remaining users may be significantly down as well, based on Musk’s own statements.
No wonder he seems increasingly desperate.
Filed Under: dau, elon musk, linda yaccarino, mdau, twitter traffic
Companies: twitter, x
Comments on “Elon May Have Accidentally Revealed How ExTwitter Usage Has Dropped Massively Since His Takeover”
I mean, what would you expect, when a lot of people defending the chief Xeet and his antics tend to literally chase people off the platform with Xeets like “And yet you’re still here” and “Yeah, go away, nothing of value would be lost”. Yep, the kind of crowd that adores Musk and buys his silly checkmarks (making them inescapable in the discussion) is pretty toxic. Of course, the effect is additive with the new “moderation” style, Musk’s dog whistles and so on.
One of my favorite TV shows had this running saying: “You set the tone”. With a social media, it appears, the tone can’t be hidden behind non-disclosures, fan obsession and physics setting the boundaries.
it's over
I deleted 14 years of history and use it for view only now. It got banished down the home screen list, and it’s still the old Twitter app. If it ever goes to X app required it will be over for good. But my usage is down since the takeover. A few minutes in the morning and that’s it.
'No I said look at ME, stop looking at the leaving users!'
If you don’t like the numbers just change the method you’re using to count them.
New manager running a store seeing the number of customers drop after they roll out a ‘harassment of other customer will not get you kicked out’ rule change? Don’t just count those that buy something, start counting people when they enter and leave!
How now DAU/MAU?
I’m curious how much of this drop in users is due to renaming Twitter to “X” vs all other decisions he’s made.
Re:
I guess that searching for “Twitter” (a very popular app for more than 10 years) in an app store showing an “X” (with no mention to “Twitter”) doesn’t help to get more downloads (and since most user download what’s popular, mostly in top 10).
If only this “X” was a real product, not some sort of rebranding, it may have as much popularity now (with all the money pour into it) as the “Samsung Clock”.
Re: Re: I wonder if any other content uses 'X' in it's name/description...
Before name change: Potential user searches for ‘Twitter’, social media platform almost certainly the top result.
After name change: Potential user searches for ‘X’, gets plenty of results but ‘social media app’ is probably not the top result.
Re: Re: App stores
I tried it on the Play Store. First result searching for “twitter” is an ad for TikTok, second is X from “X Corp.”, with no mention of Twitter. Searching for “x” is the same but the ad is for Instagram.
Observation confirmed
I have noticed many users posting less over time, and more users finally leaving and moving to Mastodon.
I only check on a handful of accounts these days.
I went over to Bluesky. Kinda interesting.
Re: same sociopath
Bluesky is going to end up a worse cesspool than Twitter was before Elon bought it because it’s run by the same sociopath that started Twitter except now he’s even worse because he’s been surrounded by nothing but yes people for the last decade.
Re: Re:
Did he poo in your shoes or something?
I’m asking because you seem angry and bitter as evidenced by how you are lashing out.
Re: Re: Jack *was* involved
While Jack was involved with Bluesky early on he’s not any longer. And he is very unhappy with Bluesky because they take moderation seriously and Jack hates that. It’s not to say they’re perfect, they’ve had slips, but they do correct and they do listen to the users. I prefer it to Mastadon, myself.
Re: Re:
This is false, and I don’t understand why people are so focused on repeating it.
Jack gave Bluesky its initial funding 3 years ago. However, he does not “run” it, has no day to day role with it, and as of last December decided they were going in the wrong direction as compared to nostr (which he has also now funded), and recently Jack deleted his Bluesky account.
Not only does he not run it, he’s not even on the service.
Even more to the point, the people who DO run it have deliberately set it up such that it is not subject to the same pressures as Twitter was.
So, basically everything you said was wrong.
Re: Re: Re:
“Not only does he not run it, he’s not even on the service.”
Still on the board, though?
Re: Re:
I agree it’s likely to be a shitshow, but not because of Dorsey (or at least, not mostly because of Dorsey. I don’t believe he’s as hands off as Mike claims below, because I’m a nasty suspicious person like that.)
It’s going to be a shitshow because it’s not distributed like Mastodon, so it’s going to be like Reddit or Twitter eventually once the current owners decide they would like their nice profits now, thank you. Been burned so many times by platforms owned by a single person or company, and that’s just in the last 12 months 🙁
If and when it joins the Fediverse, it might be worth looking at, but I’m also pissed off by the gadflies who set up accounts on Mastodon, creating a following and a community, then fucked off to Bluesky or Post or whatever without even a goodbye. The ‘social’ in social media is important. Otherwise it’s just another monetisable outlet using our input and data for their profit and resale.
Re: Re: Re:
Not yet decentralized like Mastodon, but it is designed to be even more decentralized than Mastodon, and that feature is in testing and will roll out soon.
Thankfully, the team working on it is designing it so this is an impossible result. They literally keep that end result in mind as a failure state, and are designing to make sure that can’t happen.
It’s okay to be skeptical given the Dorsey funding. But, the claims that it’s centralized and just like Twitter that way are not accurate.
Re: Re: Re:2
Mike, forgive me if “jam tomorrow” coming from venture capitalists and billionaires is…not beguiling.
“the team working on it is designing it so this is an impossible result.”
Right. So…when they finish designing it, and federate with the rest of the Fediverse, and decentralise, perhaps you can tell me how inaccurate I am in my opinion.
But given the repeated ‘enshittification’ you keep reporting about on platform after platform, perhaps you could be a little more cautious in your enthusiasm.
It’s up to Bluesky to prove to me and other potential users that (a) Dorsey’s taint does not linger over the project; (b) it will play nice with the places many of us have set up home in and not be a closed shop; and (c) it’s not just going to be another data grabbing project which users will have no real control over.
It’s not up to me to pray harder to the tech gods to help Bluesky achieve their lofty promises. I pray to no one, and definitely not to anything or anyone that Jack fucking Dorsey has anything to do with.
Re: Re: Re:3
I agree with Anathema Device here. While I have a bluesky account just to follow people who aren’t on Mastodon/The Fediverse, I’ve been enjoying my Fediverse experience better as there’s less of a penchant towards toxicity and more engagement.
Re: Re: Re:2
I wouldn’t be so sure of it. Last time I checked, they said hosting a full-network BGS – a fairly important part of the network – will be “fairly resource-intensive” (read: expensive) and hosting a partial-network one will require it to be dependent on a bigger one (read: their one).
Add to that that – unlike mastodon communities, where each has their own flavor – a BGS seems to be a fairly transparent part of the network, with few incentives to host your own – and I get the feeling bluesky will be less decentralized, if anything.
That, and even if they enable federation on the main instance – the protocol actually uses a centralized user index at the moment.
Though, to not be too negative, if they do succeed, their federation will be a lot more transparent and convenient than it is on mastodon. Just gotta actually make it happen and see how well it stays decentralized. :p
Re: Re: Re:3
This is true, but as they clearly note, each approach requires tradeoffs. They deliberately did not want to have that Mastodon issue of “each has its own flavor.” The whole point of Bluesky is to be a single protocol that can be used across a large community.
And, yes, the issue of the BGS is a potential problem, but my basic argument is that if the network is too small to support others coming in and offering their own BGS, then the whole thing is a failure anyway. If it’s successful, then it becomes worthwhile for there to be more BGS setups.
Re: Re: same Sociopath
Jack Dorsey isn’t involved with Bluesky anymore. In fact, he disagreed with how it was being run so much that he deleted his account and went to Nostr instead.
Wait, if he no longer calls them tweets, does that mean he is no longer the chief twit? So, what is he then?
Re:
The Echthroi are evil and powerful creatures whose desire is to turn all of creation evil. Those that the Echthroi do not manage to corrupt, they X (annihilate, extinguish, unname).
Re:
Emerald Space Karen.
Nope
I left the circus earlier this year but it’s been a lot of fun watching a $44 billion investment go down like the Titanic..
So thats why they are letting the bots run free, so they can count the time it takes me to block each one of them and try to get better ad rates for that random handmaidens tale looking womans pickle business.
This is excellent sleuthing. Hard to get a glimpse at all with all the moving metrics and marketing, and then a slip in the facade came from internal reframing. So many unforced errors and cracks starting to show and now numbers to at least start that convo. Thanks for the diligence.
Musk is going to sell the name “Twitter” and increase the monthly charges to $100. 😉
Comment sections are not returning
Years ago, I remember several news sites eliminating their comment section and directing readers and viewers to their social media pages. Now that everyone is dumping those services, I figured we’d see a return of the comment sections for some engagement. Nope.
Re:
They got rid of those to offload moderation onto some other party. If they brought them back, they’d have to set rules, hire people to manage them, do something to detect spam and trolling… which is the same reason they’re not going to use a distributed platform for anything except sharing their own stories.
Pretty humiliating when your social network’s app gets overtaken by a clock.
I deactivated my active account started in 2010
I just couldn’t take it anymore. It broke my heart to see what he did when he took over. I lost all my friends/interests/news and anything I ever cared about in my feed when he just flipped it to neo-nazis and misogynistic tweets. He even showed up in my following page, when I had him blocked.
The original Twitter helped me get sober from opiates. I took that time to get involved with the recovery community on Twitter, and then it spread into politics, which allowed me to evolve as a human. I realized how everything and everyone is connected. For the first time in my life I was on top of the world with instant knowledge at my fingertips. It’s amazing to know exactly what’s happening everywhere and being able to watch it with your own eyes and not having to be influenced by TV opinions.
I had over 360k tweets and I was extremely invested on that site with my activism (as previously mentioned).
I stopped watching cable news 7 years ago because I realized when Maddow came on, I knew more about a topic than she did because I had spent all day/week reading about it.
My feed went from being able to interact with my political party members and members of Congress to threats of violence and deportation (Hispanic last name through marriage). I also started getting spam calls just a few days after he made me reconfirm my phone number when he took over, and they have never stopped (it’s a private phone. Literally no one but my family has this number and it’s used for social media verification and no one else had me verify).
I’m glad I’m off the site now that I know what he really is. Threads is still growing. But the old Twitter is missed. Took me 13 years to build that beautiful feed. Regardless, when the 30 days are up and my account is officially deleted I will be delighted.