Bill Gates Still Believes Speech Will Replace Keyboards

from the the-product-of-the-future... dept

Bill Gates has been an incredibly successful businessman, but that doesn't mean he's particularly good at predicting the future of technology. Remember his claim that spam would be gone within 2 years... which he made in 2004? However, if there's one prognostication that Gates just can't let go of, it's his belief that speech recognition will replace keyboards as the preferred input device for computers. He's been saying it for years and years and years, without much to show for it. I had thought (hoped?) that he'd realized maybe he was wrong on this one, but apparently not. In a recent speech, he's insisting that speech recognition (and touch screens) will start to surpass keyboards as the input method of choice for many people. I was going to go back and put together a list of the times he had predicted that in the past, but it appears that Matthew Paul Thomas already did that a few years ago. Note that his earliest predictions (starting in 1997) were that speech would surpass keyboards within a decade. This quote is from October 1997:
"In this 10-year time frame, I believe that we'll not only be using the keyboard and the mouse to interact, but during that time we will have perfected speech recognition and speech output well enough that those will become a standard part of the interface."
If you go to Matthew's site, you'll find a lot more like that, continuing on through the years, with some different prediction time frames. This isn't to say that speech recognition hasn't gotten a lot better, and isn't used in many more ways today than it was in the past -- but it's not come anywhere close to replacing a keyboard for a variety of good reasons that have much less to do with technology than with how people work. Imagine just how noisy your typical office would be if you had to speak to your computer rather than type? Typing isn't used just because it's efficient, but because it lets people work without disturbing others, and without letting everyone else know every little thing that you're doing. Yes, speech recognition technology is getting much better and it's useful in some situations, but it's certainly not the perfect interface for an awful lot of what people do on a computer.


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  1.  
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    Alex Chai, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 8:53pm

    still a long way to go

    Imagine an office with 200 staff and everyone is talking to their computers, you'll have a very noisy office! Don't get me wrong, speech recognition is good and it's cool, but the problem is you have to have a pretty good AI model before you can get people to use speech recognition for real, i.e. you have to have the computers doing 90% of the work and keep the user input as minimum as possible before you can make speech recognition work for real. Sorry Bill, like the author said, you are not that good at predicting the future of technology!

     

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    bob (profile), Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 8:59pm

    model m forever

    I would never give up my IBM Model M keyboard. But it may be the one keyboard that would be louder than speech recognition...

     

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    zcat, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 9:37pm

    I've seen worse

    I recall seeing a quote from Marvin Minsky that machine intelligence would surpass human intelligence in perhaps as little as three years. This was back about 1970 or thereabout.. I've since lost the book it was in, and can't find any record of it in the web today unfortunately. The book (I'm fairly sure this was the book it was in) was named "The Digital Villain; notes on the numerology, parapsychology, and metaphysics of the computer"

     

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    He is partially right..., Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 9:51pm

    I dont think you can call his predictions wrong...may be things arent moving as fast as expected.

    I mean, my comp can log me in by both speech and facial recognition, I would call that progress in the right direction.

    Its funny to hear people always associate anything Bill Gates says to computers. Using speech and touch recognition is is already widely used in phones, kiosks, kitchen equipment, stores etc to name a few.

    I-Phone and Microsoft surface is just the beginning....

     

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    Le Blue Dude, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 9:54pm

    Bah

    Keyboard is more efficient. I use macros. Hitting the up button takes less time then saying "up" and using macros means I can type common words FAR faster then I say them. 'course I've MEMORIZED the macros I made.

     

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    slimcat (profile), Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 9:56pm

    Perhaps' once you get beyond...

    "Dear aunt, let's set so double the killer delete select all"

     

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    you idiot, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 10:07pm

    hey mike - who the hell are you - a lousy writer for a lousy website to HOPE a great man whos done more for this world than your entire bloodline has ever or will ever do to criticize


    die of a heart attack, please.

     

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  8.  
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    Wonton, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 10:29pm

    Re:

    Heh.


    I don't know what it is about you Mike. But you sure attract retards, rejects, and wannabe trolls like no other blogger I know.


    More to the point, this blog is a *lot* more professional than most blogs. Course many blogs tend to be livejournal clones.


    Funny how they alwasy trot out the same argument too: "what have you ever done?"


    Well you Anonymous Cowards, if you hadn't noticed Mike has created a website that has grown in popularity rather than dissapear into oblivion. Furthermore he's actually created a pretty nifty analyst business that real companies are actually using.


    Meanwhile, you let some guy's blog get to you and seem to think that famous people can do no wrong. Or you are just really really bad at trolling and need to stop because you'll never ever get any better.


    I suppose they are good for the laughs but still. You'd think they'd be embarassed with themselves at this point.

     

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  9.  
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    Le Blue Dude, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 10:32pm

    Re: Re:

    Yeah, Trolls respond to the smell of success with mindless hatred.

     

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    you idiot is an idiot, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 10:34pm

    Re: you idiot

    Bill Gates is not a great man, he is a rich man and made many good business decisions. He is also terrible at predicting where technology is going, apparently. M$ is not the greatest this ever, not to mention this prefect creation your harsh defense of the owner of the business that made it would make it seem you believe.

    By the way, learn some English, please, before posing that mess. The you won't sound like such an idiot :)

     

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    Mr Smith, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 10:52pm

    Bill Gates deserves more thanks and less criticize

    Bill Gates has made our lives tremendously easier and has accomplished more in just over 40 years than 98% of people could accomplish in 200 years. Everyone has dreams and makes predictions and most of these dreams and predictions don't come true. So a few of Bill Gate's predictions didn't come true. Before you criticize him maybe you should look out how many dreams and predictions you have had that actually came to be and than at how many of Bill's that have come true. Maybe once you realize that he has been right about a lot more than you have been right about you will be less keen to criticize him.

     

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    angry dude, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 11:06pm

    He-He-He

    Billy owes me some money, LOOOOOTSSSS of money

    Bu-ha-ha...............................

     

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    EveningStarNM, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 11:30pm

    Keyboards and Abacuses

    Anybody seen a slide rule lately?

    The idea that touchscreens and speech interfaces can't replace keyboards in large offices is just as short-sighted as believeing that the slide rule would have to stay around because it could do logarithms and you wouldn't have to worry about the battery in critical applications.

    Maybe we can't see it right now, but we'll find a way to impelement it because speech-based word processing already is a more efficient use of time. You can do more faster, and you can free up your hands for other tasks than simple data entry, such as for information retrieval. That's the bottom line. The only problems we need to overcome are interface control --

    and the aforementioned noise factor. But I really don't think it's an insurmountable problem. Besides, the diminishing importance of large workstation farms means that they will not be such an important organizational structure that they will forestall the introduction of the touch/voice interface.

    It's coming, ready or not.

     

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    John M, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 11:37pm

    Did you read the quote before you wrote this? o.O

    I didn't click through to the other predictions, but from the one you quoted, I don't see anything untrue about it - that prediction has already come to pass with many devices we use currently.

    Also, in your article, you keep saying that Gates said "voice will replace keyboards" - but if you read that quote, Gates is saying that keyboards and voice would be used in tandem, not that voice would replace anything.

    Many, many people use dictation software on a daily basis. I can say "Call Jane" to have my cell phone auto-dial a number. I use voice exclusively when talking to friends online (when once upon a time we used keyboards to send instant messages). If you call just about any company out there, you'll get a message "Please say the name of the department you'd like to speak with". Most public terminal computer systems are touch-screen based... The list goes on and on.

    Again, I didn't click through, and so there may have been some larger claims made which didn't hold water, but what you had to say about the quote you quoted was completely off base.

     

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    Matt, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 11:50pm

    short and long term answer: nope, never

    Here's one of many issues.

    Handicap requirements for accessability and standards, people who are incapable of speaking, people who do not wish to speak, language barriers that are easier to convey messages by typing than speaking. None of those categories are ever going to go away and they are certainly large groups.

    With that said, don't expect to ever see speech replacing a keyboard in any lifetime. Not mine, and not the next. I mean really if someone can market (and sell out) 1500$ keyboards that are so well engineered that they represent the next generation of keyboards do you really think that keyboards are going to go away? That is a permanent flourishing market, even if speech recognition (or even brain recognition) goes 100%.

    Another failed Microsoft announcement full of lies, just like the "we're interoperating" claim (for what, the 12th time now?)

     

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    Nick, Feb 22nd, 2008 @ 11:54pm

    Not likely

    Yeha sure it'll replace alot of commands, but take over the keyboard, no way. You think im gonna be talkign dirty to my computer to send messages to my gf? LOL. It'll be like Star Trek.. a combo deal.

    Peace out

     

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    not angry dude, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 12:29am

    Re: He-He-He

    By day, I make a living as a voice over artist, certified by telephone doctor, and can pass as a man or woman in my recordings. At night, I troll on blogs telling people about who owes me money and have dreams of striking it rich by litigation.

    this is supposed to be in the stealing "Dating Profiles" story...

     

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    Justin Hollabaugh (profile), Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 4:00am

    Gates, and by extension Microsoft, have never done anything but buy (maybe) and sell other people's innovations. They bought DOS. Xerox made the first mouse/windows system.

    Gates had a talent for being in the right place at the right time, but when has he EVER done anything to advance UI?

    If anybody is right it is going to be Apple. There was some recent speculation that they are going to merge multi-touch, pointing, and typing into a single device.

    I for one will NEVER talk to my computer. And I don't want my computer to talk to me. I'm not wild about the idea of people listening to my interactions. Multi-touch is far more interesting to me.

     

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  19.  
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    Overcast, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 4:09am

    I actually prefer to type. Being a gamer, there are already 'voice chat' options available, but I find it annoying really. I prefer to just stick to the keyboard.

    I have no doubt personally, my written communication skills are much better than my oral communications, maybe it's the extra time you have when typing to polish off the concept you are trying to convey and the way you want to deliver it that are more of a benefit to me, can't say. I recall when I was younger when computers were just starting to become 'personal' that one of the things I found most interesting was typing.

    Although, voice recognition will have it's place, I don't really find it as desirable of an option as typing, generally.

    Heck - even now where I work, the IT staff can always call each other, of course - but most choose to use Instant Messages. Perhaps for counter-intuitive reasons many people actually prefer to type. Or maybe it's really just the convenience offered with a text based communication that, in many ways - at times actually beats oral communications. Just because something is quicker, doesn't necessarily mean it's better or more efficient. If so - why is email even amongst relatives and friends a very popular communication method, when they could just call on the phone?

     

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  20.  
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    Andrew, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 6:00am

    I like speech recognition in vista. The only problem is I am almost always listening to some sort of audio (Music/Shows/Movies) and that makes it useless.

     

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  21.  
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    Blaine Barrett, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 6:06am

    Think

    All you smart dudes seem to be limiting yourself to the office. What about all those applications where a keyboard is not available. We are living in an ever more digital environment. Use your imagination. You can already talk to your phone and your Northstar system, soon you'll be telling the toilet to flush!

     

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    Blaine, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 6:12am

    Re: Did you read the quote before you wrote this?

    I'm glad to see someone else is awake. Feels lonely, doesn't it?

    Have a good day!

     

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    Marc Downs, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 7:00am

    Bill is right

    Speech is the next logical evolution. As we continue to pack more power into the device, be it hand held or PC, and improve the capabilities of the recognition software, speech will replace tactile UIs.
    The noise factor is a non-issue. Speech would be much quieter than an IBM Selectric and there are always ways to dampen or cancel it.
    Sit back, relax, and have a chat with your techology.

     

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    Steve Jones, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 7:35am

    Who would listen to Gates anyway, he and his company have managed to keep software at least 15 years behind where it would be if his dad had pulled out early and he had been shot off on the wall. It's sad how much damage a few bad seeds, Gates, Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, etc, can do to this world in such a short time.

     

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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 8:16am

    ...how would call centers work if the person answering the phone had to speak your details into the computer?

    "Name please?"
    "John Smith"
    "John... backspace, backspace. Highlight jun. Delete. John."

    And so on. Although I guess call centers would be more fun to listen to, especially the ones where every answerer has a strong accent.

     

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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 8:38am

    I doubt reguardless of the future that keyboards will ever be completely replaced. I am sure a lot of people will be uncomfortable speaking the IMs they want to send to their wife or gf and just in general especially when others can hear them. I think we need to drop speech recognition and just go to mind-to-computer interface to cut down the work even more for us lazy people.

     

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  27.  
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    Jay Keating, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 8:58am

    Speech Recognition

    I think it is just a matter of time before something else replaces the keyboard...Speach Recognition, Thought Recognition or that something we have yet to imagine...

     

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  28.  
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    Iron Chef, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 10:12am

    A quick writeup..

    A quick write up courtesy of the Iron Chef School Of Scientific Endeavor And Snacks (Thanks, Angela Gunn, I think...):

    So it wasn't long ago (Maybe fifteen months?) when Microsoft closed on the Voice Recognition software company, TellMe.

    You have to hand it to them- the final product doesn't look too shabby. Especially considering they've already executed on a go-to-market strategy with software (ResponsePoint), hardware vendors and also engaged a VAR channel.

    Having acquired a mature and robust speech engine may help drive more product dev work in this area and replace/complement the keyboards.

    I remain more interested in touchscreen application and OneNote.

    So someone said something about the Surface Computer, and it seems like a niche product, hopefully it can really improve productivity. So from a product/branding perspective, it probably would have been better for Surface to debut with AT&T or Verizon in addition to TMobile. Why? Well, these carriers seem to have a customer base thats business focused, whereas TMo appears to focus on the value-conscientious customer, so Surface would probably have better day-to-day visibility to businesses who could afford a kiosk or want to implement a kiosk strategy. It's the weekend and I'm too lazy to go research the numbers, but a few searches through some 10K filings of VZ or T may give insight to customer segments.

    Anyways, enough rambling. Check out ResponsePoint-

    http://www.microsoft.com/responsepoint/

     

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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 10:28am

    Anyone heard of Sync before? That seems to be a pretty popular use of speech recognition, and there will be many more.

     

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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 10:45am

    Steve Jones...

    Did you honestly just compare Bill Gates to Hitler, Lenin and Stalin? Are you really that childish?

     

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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 11:03am

    Right.

    Lets see a software development environment working with speech recognition :D

     

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    Le Blue Dude, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 11:21am

    Not to say

    Not to say speech recognition is useless: But I can type faster then I can talk. Honestly it would work best if used the same way as the mouse... a third input channel

     

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    TW Burger, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 11:22am

    Bill's Predictions of the future

    Gates has a history of not too well thought out predictions. He once stated no one would ever need a personal computer more powerful than the IBM PC AT with a 80286.

    To be fair I admit I use speech recognition (SR) for dictating memos and articles and it works quite well. But I could never use SR for the complex tasks I do like, as someone else here has given as an example, software development.

    I design computer embedded medical equipment. I would never allow an SR system interface in life supporting machines.

    SR will only work when AI has developed to the point where the computer has rudimentary intelligence, a sort of idiot savant expertize on the subject being controlled by the software. This way an interpretation can be made based on the context. The computer will not interpret "center the asterisk" as "render the asparagus" in a publishing application.

     

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  34.  
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    Richard Nantel, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 11:58am

    Have you actually tried speech recognition?

    Most of the people I know who attack speech recognition tried it five years ago or haven't tried it at all.

    I recently bought a popular voice recognition product and, after having stuck with it through the training phase, use it daily for everything from e-mail to writing blog entries. For me, dictating text using this software is now faster and more accurate than typing.

    Like millions of people, I work in an office with a door and don't disturb anyone when dictating.

    Frankly, I can't believe we're still typing as much as we are when audio text alternatives exist that cost less than $200. I also can't believe voice recognition isn't built into hand-held devices such as PDAs.

     

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    Rob, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 11:59am

    Bill is right

    Speech recognition will become more and more commonplace. It will not completely replace all manual input, but one day we could find ourselves talking to our computer like a regular person: "Computer, can you look up information on " or "Computer, display all movies showing between 6pm and 9pm tonight within a 10 mile radius".

    It's really not that far off. I remember 5 years ago how bad dictation software was and how its fail rate was. There definately is a vast improvement in the dictation software.

    I'm not going to say a timeframe, but I do believe that it's only a matter of time before speech will be the preferred interface control for personal computers in a private office or at home.

    There will always be manual inputs, and situtions where speech input is not recommended. Doesn't mean that speech won't become a valuable part of computers in the future.

    Bottom line is, Bill may be wrong on timelines, but his goals of integrating speech, and getting rid of spam, are good ones and practical ones. They just take a lot of time to figure out.

     

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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 12:39pm

    Re:Have you actually tried speech recognition?

    Thats great... Now walk out of your office and listen to the cacophony of noise coming out of the cubicles you may or may not manage.

    And see if the cubicle farm is more productive because you have loud talkers screaming at their computers and the computer in the next cubicle is taking the commands from the loud talker and screwing over the person in the cubicle.

     

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    R3d Jack, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 12:54pm

    Straight talking

    Ex-Chairman Bill seems to come up with a new breakthrough technology every so often. How about handwriting instead of typing? I have some problems with speech...

    3. Talking code? Maybe I could get used to it...
    2. Ever tried talking non-stop for an hour, such as at a public speaking engagement? Vocal cords only last so long. 8-10 hours a day, every day? Some people could train to keep up that pace. Not me.
    1. I'm already crammed into a grid of cubes. Loud phone calls echo throughout the room. A room full of people talking to their computers, non-stop? Shut Up!

    The next big breakthrough will be neural implants that allow us to "type" without moving our fingers. Or not. I don't have $50b to get people to listen.

     

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    me idiot you idiot he idiot we idiot, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 12:56pm

    Re: Re: you idiot

    "the you wont"

    yea.

     

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    idiot again, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 12:58pm

    Re: Re: Re: you idiot

    "not to mention this prefect creation your harsh defense of the owner of the business that made it would make it seem you believe."

    huh?...wait for it...yea.

    all im sayin is that mike didnt need to be such a dick in his post..he coulda said it a lot nicer

     

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    4-80-sicks, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 1:32pm

    All predictions are terrible. I read The Road Ahead, which Bill Gates wrote sometime around 1995. It was full of musings about stuff that would be cool, disguised as predictions..."suchandsuch will happen," instead of "suchandsuch should happen for these reasons, and here's how technology could progress to that level."

    I also read The Age of Spiritual Machines by Ray Kurzweil, and it was the same thing. Futurism is always just a lot of boring masturbation, no matter who's writing it. Even when you can see echoes of what they meant years or decades later, it's very far off from the description. This kind of thinking is important, I'm not saying otherwise...but speaking as a non-developer, the signal-to-noise ratio is extremely high.

     

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    4-80-sicks, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 1:33pm

    * signal-to-noise ratio is extremely low

     

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    Richard Nantel, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 1:33pm

    Re: Re:Have you actually tried speech recognition?

    Reply to Anonymous Coward:

    This may come a surprise but not everyone works in a cubicle. Many people work at home or areas out of earshot from other workers.

     

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    Wes, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 2:35pm

    Get your shit straight

    Alright, so Bill Gates does believe in developing a better speech recognition system, but that is not his only goal.

    Like he stated in his recent speech, he believes the future is NUA (Natural User Interface).

    His vision (although I find this a little crazy myself) is that every surface in your office, and possibly home, will be a computer screen.

    So if you have to make a note, you take out your special stylus and write it on your coffee table.

    After you write the note on the table you can go to your cell phone/PDA and read that note, lets say you write "Pick up Joe from airport March 13th @ 3pm" on the table. Your phones calender now has a new reminder in it, even if its buried in your work bag.

    Thats pretty handy for taking a phone message even with no paper or pen around huh?

    Another vision of his is: You're writing on your white board and one of your clients sends you a video message. Well just click the new message icon flashing at the top of your white board and watch it right there, no time lost.

    So to sum things up, he believes in Natural User Interface to be the future, which includes speech.

     

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    Dkp, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 3:17pm

    what's next

    I do not see voice replacing keyboards at least not in all devices although I would like it to in my cell phone I sdee voice being used more in portable devices as well as somthing like multitouch and keyboards still ruling the desk with the adition of somthing like multitouch oh just look to apple they almost always get it right
    gui
    mouse
    usb
    Ipod
    multitouch
    what's next

     

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    Jim Klaas, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 3:53pm

    why

    Who the heck wants it.....touch is cool....and maybe some speech for somethings but in general.....ummm NO!

     

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    Darryl892, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 7:27pm

    Re: Bill Gates deserves more thanks and less criti

    Are you kidding me???
    BILL HAS MADE MY LIFE A LIVING HELL!!!
    I have to worry about viruses.
    I have to worry about spyware.
    I have to worry about why my laptop takes 10 minutes to start up now.
    I have to worry about why I get little pop-up windows CONSTANTLY in the lower right hand corner. (God I hate this!)
    I have to worry about why my mobile phone sucks at browsing the internet.
    For years Microsoft has not rectified any frustrations I have regarding their products...and now they have an idiot running the company.

    God! I am so stressed!!!!!!

    I think I feel better now.
    Thank you

     

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  47.  
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    Iron Chef, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 7:59pm

    Re: Get your shit straight

    Yeah, I admit Wes, these ideas would be pretty cool, but it's going to take time for adoption. From a 5280-foot view, all the sociopolitical changes in the past eight years is going to make people scared to trust a pervasive-data strategy this radical, at least initally.

    NUI is cool tech, but if it doesn't add productivity, it's going to be a hard sell. So work backwards, the last think you want to do is shock your customers to another platform because it's unfarmilliar. As a starting point, ask how do you economically get a tablet and OneNote into these peoples hands? Don Tapscott says "Personal Use is the Precondition to Any Understanding." If people see OneNote being used in the office, it will spawn the upgrades. Then once they are comfortable with a touchscreen and you've reached critical mass, consider moving in for bigger fish like NUI.

    But it's a drastic change for an "old-timer".

    I'm really just throwing this out there- but whats the % of Fortune 100 companies who upgraded to Office 2007? Maybe there's an opportunity.

    Here's a thought- If it won't break Office 2003, make available, to the Public, Word08 upgrade for six months or say, 500k copies at a jaw-dropping price with no phone support. (Whatever it is, it must be below the psycological $49.99) Also silently include OneNote.

    Once comfortable, whatever they write will look great with the stylesets, and their work product would become a trojan horse for a O2008 site license.

    Next, (and here's where the viral thing comes into play) The techies will wonder what this OneNote thing is. To drive tablet adoption, include a $50 instant rebate (Key Point- You got to work out the logistics to make it an instant rebate, and the Rebate Value has to be above the $49.99 psycological pricepoint.) for any touchscreen laptop. I imagine many techies will find themselves eyeballing a new Vista laptop for personal use that has a touchscreen within a few weeks. Then they essentially become your salesperson for a widescale hardware upgrade with their tablet at work.

    Anyways, just some thoughts. That's how I'd do it anyway.

    Then onto developing the pervasive data strategy, etc etc etc.

    Everybody wins.

     

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  48.  
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    R, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 8:13pm

    Other Uses

    Speech recognition is only going to be really useful for two things: home automation (so you don't have to looking for a terminal) and AI. I mean, who wouldn't want to talk to an AI?

     

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    Dan, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 8:22pm

    It takes time...

    The next big thing won't necesarily be total control over speech... we have to think in incremental stages and include the future steps in the plan... It won't be just a keyboard and mouse... or just those with speech... what about the inclusion of contacts that track eye focus on a particular point on the screen... video game controls are around the corner that will make todays HUD look silly... stop complaining about what Bill says it'll be and let's really figure it out. The major point that his statements are making is that it will not be what it is today. Here is the quote that reminds me of this: "The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it." - Mark Weiser (ubiquitous computing)

     

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    erik, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 8:48pm

    mmm

    touch screens yes, speech programs no

     

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  51.  
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    Celes, Feb 23rd, 2008 @ 11:03pm

    Re: Did you read the quote before you wrote this?

    The only quote I see in Mike's post is not from Bill Gates - it's from Matthew Paul Thomas.

    That said, I haven't clicked through either, so I don't know what Gates actually did say.

     

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  52.  
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    Rekrul, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 12:38am

    Why does anyone even listen to Gates's ideas? He and Microsoft have done more to lower the average level of computer knowledge than anyone or anything else.

     

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  53.  
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    Joe C., Feb 24th, 2008 @ 1:23am

    Speech recoginition

    This seems impractical for the work place. While I type I often talk to people at my desk. I also type while I'm on the phone. I don't see being able to do either of these things if I have to talk to my computer.

     

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    John, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 1:24am

    Minority Report

    Cognotive Psychologists and Neuroscientists will back me up on this...

    Visual processing and certain Actions are much faster then speach.
    Speach takes up more brain activity then just about any other type of brain function, and is therefore slower.
    Language can also be interpreted in multiple ways

    The future will be in presenting us with MORE densely layered VISUAL information and allowing us to PHYSICALLY manipulate it.

    I know this has all been said before....

    Think of Tom Cruise in the movie, "The Minority Report"
    Projectors, Layering images, 3D imaging, Holography, etc. coupled with Gesture technology is the true future
    atleast from a speed of cognition perspective.

     

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  55.  
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    SyD, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 3:46am

    I disagree

    Bill Gates isn't wrong, his timing is just inaccurate. Spam is technically gone with the right set of filters. You can't stop spammers completely, it's impossible. However you can regulate the amount of spam a person receives and I think that's what Bill was trying to say 4 years ago. The keyboard is out dated technology for an out-dated world. Believe me, when speech recognition is further developed, it will take the place of the modern keyboard.

     

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  56.  
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    SyD, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 3:47am

    Re: still a long way to go

    When speech recognition is fully in place, Office buildings will be gone as everyone will be working from home. :)

     

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  57.  
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    Amanya Wannahearfrom, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 10:11am

    Old man has it right- no keyboard or mouse here!

    Keyboard AND mouse are not any longer necessary (and the speech activation I just leapfrogged until the tech catches up). A tool that has a form factor of a bic ballpoint pen is better- and more natural - but those with big bucks have inventory to dump and cheesy intermediate versions to hock on you already in the pipeline. Earlier example of current tech being modified rather than the great tech leap occuring to leach out value and profit away from the purchaser: "Since CCD, a 4 gig hard disk drive, and DV (digital video in any form, we all could have been using video cameras that do not tax our time (and wear out a hundred times faster) by using tape" I look back and 4 of the last 6 video cameras (one at a time) could have just been a hard disc, CCD, and the DV format" I liken this article's creator (WITH RESPECT) to the boy who cried "Sheep"- when Mr Gates cried "Wolf" at seeing the wolf take away a baby- (our cash). He is calling it from the top of the heap- and a real view we can only dream upon. Pay attention. Yes, Man is going to be doing a lot of waving of hands in air for next X years- but voice will be back in under ten by far. (it is already here in most ways) (dragon speak naturally speaking program) Interestingly, Mr Gates is the wolf also. Might want to pay attention to him. Again, the Wii-mote and Johnny Lee (CMU) system works great- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s5EvhHy7eQ It uses, (I use) what looks like a bic ball point pen, and I now run my computer by looking DOWN at my desk-with the XP desktop superimposed. Nothing like a quantum leap forward by leaping backwards reciprocally (think about it- this is THE new system- nobody notices the return to Pen!!!!!) Yes if you want this setup you need a modest low intensity projector- about 400 dollars- but if you want it on your computer monitor (that you are looking at now) that is free. Typing? Just run the handicapped feature in XP accessibility features and voila! no keyboard on my desktop except a virtual "touch-sensitive" (on the wooden desktop) one that disappears the instant I do not need it. In other words the keyboard no longer exists, except as light on the desktop. Search parameters (youtube has a very clear demo of all three "new" technologies- VR desktop, Whiteboard, and finger tracking) Wii Lee Whiteboard VR or any combo. Geez 42 dollars is a lot of money to replace a 60 dollar Natural Keyboard and a 50 dollar trackball. NOT> C'mon America! Pull your head out and start DOING IT YOURSELF. Bill Gates is just as helpless as President Bush in aiding you with your problems with computing. Stop blaming and criticising others when you could fix the problem(s) yourself! I believe in all of you- get with it- I wanna (like Mr Lee says) "See some games and new applications" now that the hard part (holographic VR desktop, and whiteboard) is done and working perf. Best to all. Rock On. Mike

     

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  58.  
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    Amanya Wannahearfrom, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 10:12am

    Old man has it right- no keyboard or mouse here!

    Keyboard AND mouse are not any longer necessary (and the speech activation I just leapfrogged until the tech catches up). A tool that has a form factor of a bic ballpoint pen is better- and more natural - but those with big bucks have inventory to dump and cheesy intermediate versions to hock on you already in the pipeline. Earlier example of current tech being modified rather than the great tech leap occuring to leach out value and profit away from the purchaser: "Since CCD, a 4 gig hard disk drive, and DV (digital video in any form, we all could have been using video cameras that do not tax our time (and wear out a hundred times faster) by using tape" I look back and 4 of the last 6 video cameras (one at a time) could have just been a hard disc, CCD, and the DV format" I liken this article's creator (WITH RESPECT) to the boy who cried "Sheep"- when Mr Gates cried "Wolf" at seeing the wolf take away a baby- (our cash). He is calling it from the top of the heap- and a real view we can only dream upon. Pay attention. Yes, Man is going to be doing a lot of waving of hands in air for next X years- but voice will be back in under ten by far. (it is already here in most ways) (dragon speak naturally speaking program) Interestingly, Mr Gates is the wolf also. Might want to pay attention to him. Again, the Wii-mote and Johnny Lee (CMU) system works great- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s5EvhHy7eQ It uses, (I use) what looks like a bic ball point pen, and I now run my computer by looking DOWN at my desk-with the XP desktop superimposed. Nothing like a quantum leap forward by leaping backwards reciprocally (think about it- this is THE new system- nobody notices the return to Pen!!!!!) Yes if you want this setup you need a modest low intensity projector- about 400 dollars- but if you want it on your computer monitor (that you are looking at now) that is free. Typing? Just run the handicapped feature in XP accessibility features and voila! no keyboard on my desktop except a virtual "touch-sensitive" (on the wooden desktop) one that disappears the instant I do not need it. In other words the keyboard no longer exists, except as light on the desktop. Search parameters (youtube has a very clear demo of all three "new" technologies- VR desktop, Whiteboard, and finger tracking) Wii Lee Whiteboard VR or any combo. Geez 42 dollars is a lot of money to replace a 60 dollar Natural Keyboard and a 50 dollar trackball. NOT> C'mon America! Pull your head out and start DOING IT YOURSELF. Bill Gates is just as helpless as President Bush in aiding you with your problems with computing. Stop blaming and criticising others when you could fix the problem(s) yourself! I believe in all of you- get with it- I wanna (like Mr Lee says) "See some games and new applications" now that the hard part (holographic VR desktop, and whiteboard) is done and working perf. Best to all. Rock On. Mike

     

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  59.  
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    Amanya Wannahearfrom, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 10:26am

    Old Man..Sorry.. what happened to paragraphing.. I

    Paragraphing lost during HTML transition.

    Rewritten:

    Mr. Gates opens a door rather than letting you look in the window by making this announcement- and the point is missed- too easy to understand>??????

    Keyboard AND mouse are not any longer necessary (and the speech activation I just leapfrogged until the tech catches up). A tool that has a form factor of a bic ballpoint pen is better- and more natural.

    Those with big bucks have inventory to dump and cheesy intermediate versions to hock on you already in the pipeline.

    Earlier example of current tech being modified rather than the great tech leap occuring to leach out value and profit away from the purchaser:

    "Since CCD, a 4 gig hard disk drive, and DV (digital video in any form, we all could have been using video cameras that do not tax our time (and wear out a hundred times faster) by using tape" I look back and 4 of the last 6 video cameras (one at a time) could have just been a hard disc, CCD, and the DV format"

    I liken this article's creator (WITH RESPECT) to the boy who cried "Sheep"- when Mr Gates cried "Wolf" at seeing the wolf take away a baby- (our cash).

    Mr Gates is who he is- in a Attitude worthy of attention.

    He is calling it from the top of the heap in some tangible ways.- and a real view we can only dream upon. Pay attention.

    Yes, Man is going to be doing a lot of waving of hands in air for next X years- but voice will be back in under ten by far. (Hands will get tired, and laziness being the mother of invention it will happen pronto) (it is already here in most ways) (dragon speak naturally speaking program)

    Interestingly, Mr Gates is the wolf also. Might want to pay attention to him.

    Again, the Wii-mote and Johnny Lee (CMU) system works great-

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s5EvhHy7eQ

    It uses, (I use) what looks like a bic ball point pen for "mouse", and I now run my computer by looking DOWN at my desk-with the XP desktop superimposed upon it.

    Nothing like a quantum leap forward by leaping backwards reciprocally.

    A great idea is like fire- it takes off- some reader out there may realize the immensity of this- and get the word out.

    "A return to Pen and Paper" (virtual paper)

    Yes, you need a modest low intensity projector- about 400 dollars- but on your existing computer screen it is free.

    Typing? Just run the handicapped feature in XP accessibility features and voila! no keyboard on my desktop except a virtual "touch-sensitive" one

    In other words the keyboard no longer exists, except as light on the desktop.

    Geez 42 dollars is a lot of money to replace a 60 dollar Natural Keyboard and a 50 dollar trackball. NOT

    Stop blaming and criticising others when you could fix the problem(s) yourself!

    I believe in all of you- get with it.

    Best to all.

    Rock On.

    Mike

     

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  60.  
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    Amanya Wannahearfrom, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 10:39am

    Hardwareless GUI- 42 dollars and bic pen- no compu

    Dear Public,

    As "milady" suggests, I should stop telling you about, and tell you what it is NOT:

    No physical Keyboard, Mouse, or Monitor.

    Just a Bic Ballpoint pen is all the user sees.

    Imagine a empty room with a wood desk and chair, and this bic pen- that is all that is INSIDE the room to run XP.

    Got it?

    Good!

    Mike (and li'l Miss)

     

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  61.  
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    Anonymous Shepherd, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 11:07am

    predictions

    Hi,

    if you try to predict the future you can't be so one-dimensional.
    I believe that yes, speech or thought or something else more natural to human interactions will replace or supplement the keyboard. And it already happens, as others here point out.
    The simplistic arguments against it remind me of stories they told about when the car or the computer or [name what] was first introduced. Technology changes society and vice versa.

    Greetings, A.

     

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  62.  
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    Eris Tyler, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 11:16am

    Re: Re: Did you read the quote before you wrote th

    It seems obvious to me too! I think i've figure out a set of parameters that the application would work well for in the general consumer market, woe is me that I'm not a programmer...

     

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  63.  
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    Seko Seko, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 11:57am

    True prediction

    "those will become a standard part of the interface."

    Who said anything about replacing the keyboard. and from what i read in this qoute, we are already there.

    Thanks Bill, What's next?

     

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  64.  
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    Seko Seko, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 11:57am

    True prediction

    "those will become a standard part of the interface." Who said anything about replacing the keyboard. and from what i read in this qoute, we are already there. Thanks Bill, What's next?

     

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  65.  
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    Joe Smith, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 12:05pm

    Carpel Tunnel Syndrome

    Well you all can continue to type and get Carpel Tunnel Syndrome while my hands and wrist stay strong and healthy because I will be using speech recognition. By the way known of you have any right to complain about Microsoft software. If you don't like it there are plenty of other alternatives out there. Such as Apple, and Linux based OS. But don't sit there complaining about it if you continue to buy it.

     

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  66.  
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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 1:24pm

    Re: Re: you idiot

    what?

     

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    seatec, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 1:44pm

    Re: Bah

    And why could you not call a macro by voice. expand your mind my friend.

     

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    Hua Fang, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 1:54pm

    Again, imagine any thoughts in the form of codon

    Remember that no words have certain meaning before they are defined by your intuition or by common rules. So, to make words meaningful in the way you expect, they can not be alone like the individual letters, number symbol on the keyboard, they must be in the form of defined way. It is kind of DEFINITION + WORD. I call them Codon, so on and so forth. By doing so, any keyboard will be able to TALK. So equivalently to say, you have a "talking keyborad" as a tool to express your thoughts without a necessary mechanical keyboard.....
    Keep your imagination going...
    or Visit my website for the idea called "Codonology":
    www.Codonology.com
    Have a good future!
    Hua Fang, MD

     

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    orb24, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 2:04pm

    Did you say.........

    The speech recognition programs will have to learn how to understand everyone's accents from all over the world. Right now they have a lot of problems.
    www.orb24.com

     

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    TK, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 3:24pm

    I've been hearing this as a tech teacher for years! My first response was, "The day I have to sit in a classroom with 32 kids speaking into microphones is the day I leave." But the state, which is in bed with MS, pushes it. I remember about 5 years ago when the President of our state association did the entire program using SR. It was so full of typos it was HILARIOUS! Yeah, Steve, I'm sold! We all got out our red pens and started correcting it.

    Will SR replace keyboards? I'm sure that at some point it will. In ten years? I don't think so. It's still very buggy. Keyboards have a lot of benefits; I can type without advertising to anyone within earshot what I'm doing, I can multitask (watching TV and typing right now) without disturbing others, keyboards are MUCH more accurate (if you're an accurate typist), and some of us can type faster than we can dictate. I see SR in the next ten years as more of a quality add-on to a keyboard than a realistic replacement.

     

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    Fred, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 4:28pm

    I get no Spam with my Gmail Account

    "spam will be gone within 2 years... which he made in 2004?"
    Hey spam may not be gone on MSN, but since I've opened up my Gmail account I haven't received any spam in my inbox. Its all neatly piled underneath Spam where it belongs. So in away I guess Bill was right. You just have to have your email with the right people. GOOGLE ROCKS AND SHOULD RULE THE COMPUTER INDUSTRY!!

     

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    Michael O'Connor, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 5:37pm

    Parsing it is the trick

    Let's assume speech recognition is perfect - that the computer can understand every word spoken. There is still the problem of figuring out what the person means.

    We want computers to understand speech, but the grail is understanding natural speech, not carefully worded commands. We are getting pretty good at recognition. Understanding natural speech is a different problem and is the real trick. That's the thing to get working on now.

     

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    Iron Chef, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 5:49pm

    Re: Hardwareless GUI- 42 dollars and bic pen- no c

    Just a Bic Ballpoint pen is all the user sees.

    Imagine a empty room with a wood desk and chair, and this bic pen- that is all that is INSIDE the room to run XP.


    So something like the Nokia Digital Pen SU-27W?

    I think that first had it's debut in 2004. Again it experienced Also, many reviews on it didn't come until several years later.

    Nokia has long had a facinating legacy of creating a good robust UI, employing features that seem to be well ahead of others. I've had GPS directions (by way of TomTom) on my nokia phones since my Nokia 6600 which came out it 2003.

    So it's not surprising when I saw the SU-27W that something was up. I acquired a SU-27U for $50 almost a year ago.

    It's an interesting device, but has limitations- for one, it requires specially indexed paper.

    But the ability to acquire it for such a low price tells me two things:
    1) High R&D costs built into the device caused a non-commitity device. Which led to
    2) Adoption challenges partially due to it's high price.
    3) The surplus was sold at intrensic value, not at cost.

    Again, when discussing new Human Interaction Devices, it takes time and commoditization for it to reach critical mass, and needs a phase-in strategy. Somewhat related: consider acoption rates of with moving to SOA/BPM platforms.

    Where is Masnick anyway?

    /thread

     

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  74.  
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    Iron Chef, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 6:05pm

    Re: Re: Hardwareless GUI- 42 dollars and bic pen-

    * Correction SU-1B is what I acquired, SU-27W is a refresh of the product.

     

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  75.  
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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 6:34pm

    Re: Re: Bill Gates deserves more thanks and less c

    Ever though of just switching to Mac if you hate M$ so much?

     

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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 7:19pm

    thought recognition technology will one day replace (for the most part) both the keyboard & mouse, and speech recognition technology.

     

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    Sean, Feb 24th, 2008 @ 10:45pm

    News Flash: Man incorrectly predicts future!

    News Flash: Bread now sliced too!

    Welp that about summarizes this entire story.

     

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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 12:33am

    LumenVOX for asterisk

    Has anyone tried this voice recognition system for asterisk?

    http://freepbx.org/news/2008-01-29/microsoft-response-point-pbx-asterisk-and-beyond

    Says they have a $50 developer edition thru the end of Feburary. has anyone tried it?

     

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  79.  
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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 12:41am

    LumenVox Speech Starter Kit

     

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    John Kaduwanema, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 1:57am

    Speech Recognition V Typing

    Well my own view is that there are "no go areas" for technology. It doesn't seem like such a bad idea if you consider the claims for compensation due to Repetitive Strain Injury. Also in terms of the noise, my office is already quite noisy with all the endless telephone calls.

     

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    Brian, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 2:23am

    I know that I can't reliably predict the future, and I honestly do have an opinion about this. However, it's not that important.

    One fact I can reliably state is this:

    I will freakin' kill myself if everyone in my office started talking to their computer. I can't get them to shut up without talking to their computer (and some of them do so anyway). Pretty please, Mr. Gates, help me keep my sanity by not giving every idiot in the world an audible voice.

    Thanks,
    ~Brian, whose keyboard will not be replaced by voice recognition software for too many reasons to state.

     

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    Robert, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 5:04am

    Not that far fetched.

    If we can have tiny devices such as cell phones pick up clear voice transmission, then I don't believe that the cubicle hell will really play a part. As it is most call centres don't have partitions from one consultant to the next. Does that make it impossible to make out what they are saying?

    I've used a few speech recognition programs. Although not very smart the recognition bit was actually quite good. On a system a friend had set up! So perhaps it all comes down to how clearly one speaks.

    I don't think we'll have voice take over everything. But standard routine commands I have no doubt speech will take over.

     

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  83.  
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    Jeff Betherson, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 5:10am

    Everything must go

    Of course the keyboard will dissapear. An earlier comment stated the disappearance of the slide rule as a technology which has all but vanished. What about clubs? Clubs for bashing things? You know - cavemen clubs. They're use has almost completely expired in this modern world (exluding baseball players).

    If we consider the evolution of man, the evoluion of man's machines, and the evolution of man's relationship with the machines, I think their rate of evolution would increase in the same order. And if that carries on forever then of course keyboards will disappear, then screens will disappear, then speech input will disappear. Eventually, the machines themselves will disappear from our perception, and our thoughts, desires, wishes and wildest dreams will control our surroundings.

    On the paths of these lines of evolution, there will be thousands of intermediate stages, and we're on one where there happens to be less clubs and more keyboards. Sure, there'll be people who hang on to past technologies for resons other than technological advancement, 4-track musicians, vynl record collectors, screen printers, baseball players, but chores will disappear. Chores now handled by the machines - washing dishes, feeding the fire, finding food mental calculations - they're almost all gone.
    It's inevitable keyboards will disappear, I'd be very surprised if a suitable substitute isn't found within the next few decades.

    And I wish they'd hurry up, this took me bloody ages.

     

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  84.  
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    Anonymous Coward, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 5:18am

    Re: Re: Bill Gates deserves more thanks and less c

    I have to worry about viruses. I have to worry about spyware. I have to worry about why my laptop takes 10 minutes to start up now. I have to worry about why I get little pop-up windows CONSTANTLY in the lower right hand corner. (God I hate this!) I have to worry about why my mobile phone sucks at browsing the internet.

    I see a trend here:
    Viruses and Spyware aren't written by MS (and of course aren't limited to Windows). Boot up time of 10 minutes? My XP laptop boots in less than 1 minute. Popups? Stop loading crap in startup.
    Did you stop to think, maybe it's you?? (and your porn surfing habits).
    Btw, MS has a monopoly of mobile phone web surfing? News to me.

     

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  85.  
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    Killer_Tofu (profile), Feb 25th, 2008 @ 5:22am

    Speech Recognition

    Now, I did not read everyone's reply, as there are quite a few. But Speech will never fully replace a keyboard.

    Video gamers will be able to attest to that all the time.
    Playing a RTS or FPS with speech only would be impossible.
    You would lose every time.
    Maybe if it was a slow turn based system or puzzle game maybe. But definitely no FPS or RTS at the least (and a good amount of RPGs too).

     

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  86.  
    identicon
    Peter Safar, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 5:29am

    CPR

    Does anyone know CPR? Your going to need it if you pry the keyboard from me!

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  87.  
    identicon
    J.E. Henry, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 5:45am

    Speech replacing keyboards

    Hi

    That is ridiculous!! What about those hearing impaired people who can't hear or cannot speak cannot use speech. Or those that cannot speak well cannot use this sort of thing.

    Think about it.

     

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  88.  
    identicon
    Overcast, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 6:11am

    While it may be possible...

    From the feelings I've seem on it so far - it seems most people don't really care for it. And above everything else, that will be the main determining factor.

    Personally, I remember trying 'voice recognition' software like 10 years ago. It wasn't just the pain of configuration that made it undesirable, but the fact that it did depend on speech. It's been around for a while already, really.

    I really don't want to get up early on the weekends, go posting on blogs, forums, or whatever and have to talk. Nor do I really feel up to talking physically at work right now. Between the phone and everything else in the 'real world', mostly I just don't feel up to physically talking more. Especially to a computer.

    I'll keep the keyboard and mouse as long as I can... If it comes to me shelling out more $$$ for 'voice recognition' they can forget it! lol

     

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  89.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 6:18am

    I don't have time to read all the above comments, so sorry if I'm repeating this.

    Speech recognition may work great for some people, especially those who are handicapped or do dictation all day long. However, a computer tech will ALWAYS need a keyboard. Just imagine trying to write computer code or input complicated commandline sequences using speech. It ain't gonna happen, period.

    The key to speech recognition is its ability to understand the English language (or whatever other spoken language you use). Computer code and commandline environments are NOT comprised of basic English. They are not languages that can be easily spoken. Actually, this is somewhat ironic, because it's for this very reason that the people writing the speech recognition software will never be able to use said software to do their jobs.

    So yeah, Bill, take your predictions and go sit in a dark corner somewhere, quietly please. For the record, I haven't really taken much stock in your predictions since you said nobody would ever need more than 640K of RAM.

     

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  90.  
    identicon
    Alimas, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 6:25am

    I Remember

    ..using voice recognition software one 486 in Windows 98 back ten years ago. I thought it was awesome. But then I lost the software and hadn't re-gotten it.
    While it was fun, it wasn't always practical. I lost privacy when using it, as anyone who could hear me knew what I was doing. Most people, including me change their tones when their mood changes and that would be annoying.
    And actually, there were many things where it really was just faster with the mouse or keyboard.
    The only place I see voice recognition coming in is security and document writing. Its not really too practical past all that.
    It wouldn't be much help with graphic artists, it wouldn't be worth anything to gamers, etc..
    It has a future in security, document writing and stuff that isn't a part of the PC (cell-phones, PDAs, etc..)

     

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  91.  
    identicon
    On a plane, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 6:46am

    Kill me now

    I could see myself strangling the guy seated next to me on plane if he insisted on dictating a presentation out loud.

    Speech recognition technology does have practical applications in many situations but it is still very limited. For example, my credit card company uses speech recognition to supplement its voice menu navigation. It's handy but it is a far cry from a viable substitute for simply pressing a number key. Sign me up when I can call in then simply say, "What's my current balance and when is my next payment due?"

    For my money speech recognition makes sense when you don't have access to a keyboard/mouse/keypad, but it doesn't replace these entry mechanisms. The real innovation will be when we can control input through a combination of thought, hand motion and eye movement. Now that would be nifty.

     

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  92.  
    identicon
    Etch, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 10:54am

    Re: Perhaps' once you get beyond...

    hahaha

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  93.  
    identicon
    Amnon Mike Cohen, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 1:09pm

    Microsoft DOES NOT KNOW HOW to deliver what we hav

    USCIIIIII CODE is what will replace ASCII CODE, and my EchoLogical Machines' invention is the way it will be achieved - because without The GURU INVENTOR and where Microsoft does not want to work with THE INVENTOR Bill Gates DREAM will stay his hope, while he know I am living nearby and I believe he has seen my emails as well as Paul Allen who does not trust that I am the inventor of my invention and may be someone who came across the idea - but for me and my brainchild, it is silly, as I know and can prove I am the father of my children.

    Microsoft DOES NOT KNOW HOW to deliver what we have been expecting for 60 years, first because they do not trust what they can not control, and mostly because they do not want to work with inventors who are gifted with the solution - and in my case, where I made sure I do not go on the wrong road for the solution, they may be concerned with the fact that I come from outside the industry.

    It is good, that Bill Gates does like to see this come true, and I know it is The Salvation to Microsoft, if they work with me on the Universally Intelligent Internet Project of the EchoLogical Machines generation of Computers and Robots - but they need to accept that there are special none technological problems which must be addressed so we can have these computers which can think and sing as well as talk and listen in any natural language and not with the limitations of AI and Artificial voice to speech and speech to text and text to speech, and/or Automatic Translations and/or real and not only limited Virtual and Persona Machines.

    So I have posted some information if you search for the terms I use, or look at a developers' website where you can see a model but not the trade secrets I own, as this is bigger then IBM+INTEL+APPLE+Microsoft and so on, all put together...

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  94.  
    identicon
    darryl892, Feb 25th, 2008 @ 6:23pm

    Re: Re: Re: Bill Gates deserves more thanks and le

    Don't make fun of my porn surfing habits!
    Your mean..I don't like you.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  95.  
    identicon
    Ian, Mar 4th, 2008 @ 5:24am

    Re: Microsoft DOES NOT KNOW HOW to deliver what we

    THIS SOUND RIGHT. I SURE HOPE THEY DO CONTACT INVENTORS WHO CAN HELP THEM DO A BETTER JOB FOR US.

    I have been using Microsoft for years, and like to be able to have a head set instead of using my keysboard.
    I can not understandv why such a big and able company has not yet done so, if its rich owner does like to see this as I do?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  96.  
    identicon
    Happy talker, Mar 17th, 2008 @ 10:49am

    Speech recognition software rules!

    Bill Gates is absolutely right about speech recognition. I use speech recognition software every day. I use Dragon NaturallySpeaking professional version 9. I started with version 8 and now have graduated to version 9 which is even better as one would think. It is much faster than typing. I believe that speech recognition will change the way office areas are constructed and this will be a good thing! Noisy cubicle areas are horrible and I have experienced some terrible ones myself. Fortunately now I am in a quiet office situation.
    It is not necessary anymore to subject your body parts to potentially hazardous repetitive movement by continually typing. There is a much better and faster way to communicate to a computer. I originally obtained the software because I hurt my elbow and I was unable to type. By the way Anonymous Coward, it is not appreciated when you call us speech recognition users handicapped. We're actually the smarter ones! I would say that you are the one with the handicapped brain because you are so clueless and say things which are just simply not true. Just for your information, if you do have to make that sort of degrading comment then special-needs is a much better term. In fact I am certain that I can put written text into a computer faster than the fastest typist in the world and I am ready for the challenge. Bring them on! (This text just took me about 20 seconds to dictate) I feel really sorry for all you folks stuck banging away at your keyboards day after day, wasting your time and increasing the likelihood of carpal tunnel or other life changing physically painful problems in the future.
    Speech recognition software is like any other software, you have to learn how to use it correctly. It gets better with time as it continually learns to recognize your speech patterns. If you have words that it does not recognize you can train it easily to recognize those words.

    I think that most of the negative comments about speech recognition are written by people who have never used it and so they are meaningless. It does help to be able to speak clearly and quickly which some people cannot do. I am not sure if the software would work for somebody who stutters, slurs or mumbles (like Mayor Menino of Boston) when they speak. It is also helpful to have studied a foreign language so that you know how to take care in your pronunciation and to be sure that your pronunciation is very reproducible.

    The other thing that is really driving me crazy is that everyone is saying well "I'm going to have to give up my keyboard". That is simply not the case. You can still type and use your mouse but you would find that you never do this once you learn to use speech recognition. However if for some reason you get stuck on a particular word or you get tired of talking you can still type.

    Let's hear from other successful speech recognition users instead of this nonsense from people who really know nothing about it.

    Thank you for reading my long dictation/composition. I could go on and on and on and on because it is just so simple to put words into your computer when you say them. Effortless in fact. I simply lean back in my chair comfortably and talk to my computer and it does what I tell it to do each and every time.

    Bill Gates you are so right and I believe in you and your predictions!

     

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  97.  
    identicon
    Tony, Jun 12th, 2008 @ 6:09pm

    I absolutely love reading all these replies that claim that speech technology is so much better than typing because EVERYONE who types gets carpal tunnel syndrome and other repetitive strain injuries.

    Meanwhile, speaking for eight hours won't hurt your throat or cause any othr kind of problems. And of course when someone can't speak, becaus of a cold or other problem, I'm sure not having a keyboard will look even more ridiculous.

     

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  98.  
    identicon
    Donna Abate, Jun 19th, 2008 @ 3:57pm

    Speech Recognition

    I was hoping speech recognition would be perfected in a few years since I had double tennis elbow and now double carpal tunnel from 25 years of keyboard work.

    I also have a muscle problem and lost my earning potential since my experience and education relies on computers. I am 47 and have been trying to get another career going, one that doesn't use computers much and I have not had any success.

    Speech recognition was giving me some hope but after reading this article I am loosing hope that I will never be able to go back to office work again.

    That means a very limited life due to reduced income.

    Donna
    New Jersey

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  99.  
    identicon
    Jeff, Oct 27th, 2008 @ 7:06am

    Re: still a long way to go

    Gee, isn't that the way offices worked before we all had computers and e-mail?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  100.  
    identicon
    sandra, Jun 7th, 2009 @ 10:15am

    Speech replacing keyboarding

    I agree with Mr. Gates. I teach tablet computers and we use only speech and handwriting. It has not happened yet, but some day, both of these technogies will REPLACE keyboarding.

    I teach keyboarding (college) also, and we have lots of students. It's just that they don't know about voice and handwriting and that they don't have tablet computers.

    Once tablet computers and phones that use handwriting as well as speech technology are marketed correctly, the use of keyboarding will disappear in a few years.

    One of my students showed me her cell phone that has handwriting on it. She just wrote the text message on the screen and it was magically turned to typing as she wrote each word. No mistakes.

    A cell phone sales person showed me her cell phone (a model not sold by the company she was working for) that had speech recognition. She told it to "Text Robert." It opened a text message screen. Then she said "Where are you?" It wrote the message in a second. No thumbs!

    I was impressed. I am know looking for a cell phone that has handwriting (OneNote particularly) and speech. Does anyone know of one?

    Thanks.

     

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  101.  
    identicon
    Mathew, Jun 27th, 2009 @ 10:12am

    Speech recognition

    1. Typing is quick and private

    2. Some high percentage of employee output, is chit chat, gossip, tweets, chats, etc. Do they want people in the office to hear that? I for example, wouldn't want my colleague, sat next to me, to hear what I am typing right now on this forum.

    3. People have all sorts of noise interference coming from their machines, like music, and sound effects. Typing is immune to any effects of this noise. Voice isn't.

    4. With a mouse and keyboard, you can write documents and quickly/efficiently revise/edit them.

    5. I bought my first laptop 15 years ago, and got a word recognition package. Seemed like a great idea, but I quickly realised that it was useless. I have not since installed such a package, nor had the desire to.


    7. 20 years ago, I studied the paperless office. Hands up anyone, 20 years on, who hasn't got biros, scraps of paper, post.it notes, business cards, , pads, calanders, and wads of paper on their desks? It's hard to simplify a process that is already pure simplicity.

    The question is. If typing works, why try to simplify it with soemthing that is intrinsically more complicated, and even less desireable??

     

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  102.  
    identicon
    Sony, Nov 1st, 2009 @ 9:51am

    Re: Bah

    thats for someone who can memorize the macros

     

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  103.  
    identicon
    Sony, Nov 1st, 2009 @ 9:53am

    Re: Re:

    i agree

     

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  104.  
    identicon
    dont know, Nov 30th, 2009 @ 1:42am

    this really sucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

     

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  105.  
    identicon
    somebody, Jan 22nd, 2010 @ 10:38am

    first voice than brain recognition? i was searching about spyware and found this. i wanted to know why the programs on my pc spy on each other and hide my ability to see what data they are collecting from my program use. and how i can see exactly what information they are collecting... im guessing every every every thing.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  106.  
    identicon
    John paul, Nov 9th, 2010 @ 11:26pm

    pray

    I would pray for you if you like me to i will
    just ask me. any time. 501-525-1599 call after 12:00pm

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  107.  
    identicon
    Olam, Jan 21st, 2011 @ 1:46pm

    Inventing as we were created and blessed

    USCIIIIII CODE is the Universal answer - search for it on the www - be wise, and see the real future now.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  108.  
    identicon
    Charlie'sGirl, Jul 13th, 2011 @ 11:54am

    Re: Speech recognition software rules!

    I have been using Voice Recognition software for over a year and frankly I would not have been able to return to work after getting tendinitis in both elbows from mouse use. But it's a lonely experience with little support from my colleagues as so little is known about it and I have been stuck on a traders desk with all the noise factors. There needs to be more support as health problems from keyboard and mouse use are going to be A BIG issue in years to come...

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  109.  
    identicon
    Bill Gates, Jul 16th, 2011 @ 7:02pm

    shut the fuck up

    Shut the fuck up mother fuckers, who cares?
    Peace out,
    Billy G x

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]


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