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Math Traces Patterns In The Stock Market
from the yeah,-prove-it dept
For years I've heard all about mathematical predictions for things like the stock market, and every time someone comes along with a program that they think will predict the market, it's pretty quickly proven wrong. So, I'm a bit skeptical about any story that talks about such ideas. This time, researchers are looking at the ever popular "power laws" to predict big trends, such as crashes. They think their research could be useful for those trying to hedge on their investments.
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third line "like eartquake, trading on the market is random ..."
Math modelization of markets assumes it s made of unrelated events, i.e. random but it s factually false. I stop reading here
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Foundation
I am reminded of Hari Seldon's Psychohistory in this regard. It modeled the whole of a human society, and could make acurate predctions of large groups of people. But, that's fiction. The reality is that unforseen random events cause sharp changes of direction, in society and the stock market. You can't predict randomness - otherwise it's not randomness.
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