Agreed - I think this is the right interpretation of the analyst. Revenue from a subscriber would be higher than ad revenue per user, so the NYT would need fewer subscribers than it currently has consumers. No argument there. But how many people will sign up? No comment in the article - hopefully the analyst's report addresses that question!
Judging by the fact that as of this morning it appeared that every link from their homepage was broken (wouldn't load in Chrome), the technology behind this should run seamlessly. I take it that is one of the remaining 200 glitches. I'll be interested to see if they have trouble with shifting customer expectations for reliability - if I'm paying for something that doesn't work, I'm mad.