Re: Re: Re: Re: I have to disagree with you on this one
It is not the getting there you should be thinking of. It is the transition from a capitalist based system to one where the cost of manufacturing approaches zero. This "Tween time" is going to be a really bumpy ride, demonstrations, riots, corporations and governments failing due to loss of revenue.
Right now in the US we have 120 million people filing taxes, and 86 million people paying taxes on a country of 300 plus million with a huge debt load. Using the numbers from the report the number of people paying taxes will be in the 50 million range in 20 years. Using Moore's law and just the projects in the works to forecast forward you end up with between 28 and 34 million people working in the US 20-25 years.
Financially this is unworkable. With the current debt load the failure point for the US federal government in is 50-60 million taxpayer range. After that they are bleeding money to quickly to survive.
Ever increasing taxes on a shrinking tax base is also a huge issue. One thing that will likely occur is the inevitable surprise increases in taxes that reduce peoples tax refund checks to negative values. Another is a Cyprus style raiding of bank accounts. All in all it does not bode well.
I just tried to look up the government report that shows this inflection point but got Due to the lapse in government funding,... instead. There are actually 3 reports the NSF, US military and another agency that show growing trends in automation and job loss. Look them up when the .gov sites come back up.
I have been working on robotics for about 20 years now and have been thinking about this alot. Most of what you have said is unrealistic. Companies letting go of profits and paying a decent wage... not going to happen. The services sector is going to be automated away also. Doctors and lawyers are also not safe from automation. With projects like the qualcomm tricorder xprize 80 percent of what doctors do can be automated. It does not bode well ...
You don't think that self-driving cars won't *also* open up tremendous new jobs for people?
Quite the opposite, I also see the secondary job losses. More efficient use of roads means less people building roads. The lack of accidents means job loss in the automotive repair arena and insurance industry. The reduction in the need for meter maids as cars move themselves or pay the meter as needed. The lack of speeding and unsafe driving means no more tickets and a reduction in revenue for local police. Car sharing (not ridesharing) also means the loss of jobs in automotive manufacture.
We have reached an inflection point where robotics and automation are concerned and there is no going back.
We are getting to the point where the decreasing cost of technology and the increasing capabilities are actually beginning to affect the job market. Like most of the disruptive innovations before this one is creeping up on us slowly but is beginning to go exponential.
A great example is Foxconn purchasing 1 million robots, to replace about 1 million workers, in a nation (China) with relatively low wages. Another is the robot Baxter, by rethink robotics, which will be used to manufacture more Baxters, removing the need to hire employees for manufacture. Google's self driving car has the potential to remove about 10 million primary driving and secondary insurance, mechanics, body shop workers, etc out of the US economy. The secondary effects are due to accident reduction.
The 3D house printer I am working on, by generation 3, will be able to set itself up and print a house unsupervised in under a day. The finishing, wiring, plumbing, glazing, tiling, painting, etc will take another day and will be fully automated. I foresee major job losses in the construction sector, about 3-4 million of them.
The quest for profits will drive this forward, with companies that refuse to automate or roboticize becoming financially unviable and failing. No laws, rules, or regulations can prevent this from occurring. Any laws passed, by specific nations, to slow job loss, will cause the companies burdened by them to fail, as other nations become more efficient and cost effective due to automation.
The most amusing part of this whole story is the pseudo he used ... The Dread Pirate Roberts. Gut feel tells me someone will restart the silk road using that same exact name. Much like the books and the movie.
In the end, the NSA spying program is probably going to kill closed source software. Microsoft, Oracle, and their ilk are likely going to be feeling the repercussions for the next 20 years. If they last that long.