Re: Re: Everybody is overreacting - I make a prediction
My optimism remains intact.
Your summary of the past is pretty accurate.
But networks are driven by technology, and there are technologies on the horizon that will change the situation.
Google has given up on GFiber because they see cheaper and better ways to get bandwidth deployed - their own Project Loon, yes, but moreso SpaceX's Seattle-based satellite project. (Google is a big SpaceX investor.)
And there are lots of other technologies, including mesh networks, next-gen WiFi and WiMax, etc.
Where there's a need, people will find ways to profit from filling the need. The telecom cartel is digging its own grave (as do all cartels, eventually). And the Trump administration is going to help dig.
More, even if there is no new infrastructure, what I said about Internet Protocol remains true. Even China's Great Firewall isn't more than a bump in the road - most of its effectiveness comes from the threat of jail time for bypassing it, not from its technical abilities.
Net neutrality is a good thing as long as we have government-protected telcom cartels.
But the Internet, and the Market, are tougher than they get credit for.
Since it seems the Trump administration is going to gut net neutrality, here's my prediction of what will happen:
1 - If telecom carriers don't give customers what they want (open access to data anywhere), that will create a huge business advantage to new carriers that do. Look for more entrants into the market as the traditional cartels limit choice.
2 - Internet Protocol is pretty flexible. If carriers limit choice, look for vastly popular traffic tunneling apps that route forbidden/surcharged traffic disguised as permitted traffic.