The put down of the current business model for baseball is way too pat. The Dodgers will reap something like $425 million/ year (!!!) for their current local TV deal. They are able to do so because they are collecting probably $3-4/month from nearly every cable subscriber in Greater Los Angeles (at least, that's the plan).
Compare that to $10/month from only the most ardent fans. Making the $10 package freely available would mitigate the incentive the strongest fans have to pay upwards of $100/month to cable companies just to watch the Dodgers. Without those hopeless fans getting cable just to watch the Dodgers, I reckon the amount cable companies would be willing to pay would drop more than 50%.
Exclusives have always come at a premium in entertainment, and baseball is no different. The policies suck for fans and may harm the sport in the long run as fans lose interest, but in the short-to-medium term there is no rational way the Dodgers would earn $425 million/ year for local TV rights if the new Dodgers cable channel did not have an exclusive. Back of the math reveals that pretty quick, with probably about 10 million households, the Dodgers/ MLB would need to collect $42 from each household. Since the package runs about $130/year, they would need fully 1/3 of all households to sign up for the MLB streaming package. That's simply not going to happen.
This article is the biggest piece of shit ever posted on Techdirt. It feels almost like a parody of the scare pieces Techdirt loves to mock with such hysterical lines as "I wonder if he's considered what might happen if his system were taken over as part of a botnet that took out a hospital's computer system, say, or were used to host and distribute child pornography: would he be happy about accepting responsibility for those too?"
Or how about hey, maybe the dude just doesn't care if his Techirt password is stolen. Or NYTimes password. Or the password for any of a million other sites that pose no risk to the user if stolen. Nope, making that logical inference would require more common sense than Mr. Moody could possibly muster.
Subtraction: 314 million people. Less 74 million children. That's 240 million adults.
Multiplication: 12 months a year. $2800/month. That's $33,600/year.
Multiplication: 240 million adults. $33,600/adult/year. That's a mere $8.064 trillion/ year.
Addition: $8.064 trillion in new benefits. $3.539 trillion in the 2012 budget. The new budget is now $11.603 trillion.
Division: $11.603 trillion divided by $3.539 trillion. The new budget is 3.28x the old budget.
Division: The US Gross Domestic Product is about $17 trillion. Glyn's simple plan to curb piracy would merely result in the US budget consuming just 68% of the US gross national product.
Final answer: this is one of the more absurd proposals ever to appear in Techdirt. Hopefully I'm simply missing the Swiftian subtlety & this is not actually a call for the US to more or less impose full-fledged socialism in order to solve what is, by most accounts on Techdirt & elsewhere, a mosquito of a problem. Tactical nukes seem a bit of overkill, don't they?
Re: Re: What are the odds an outbreak would strike there?
Maybe insightful, but wrong. You need to divide by 6, since the CDC stats are for the full year. So the death rate among the general population over 60 days is 0.7995%/365*60= 0.131%. Which is pretty damn close to the 0.1186%. Demonstrating pretty clearly that there is no obvious correlation between vaccination and near term mortality.
I reckon the difference could be chalked up to many people near death would not be vaccinated when otherwise they would be. Of course, there are many other convoluting factors-- the elderly are more likely to get the flu vaccine and have higher mortality. Ditto very young children. The least likely to be vaccinated are healthy folks in 20s, 30s, 40s. Who also have among the lowest mortality rates.
But we agree on on thing, the OP's assertion is laughable.
Re: Re: This may not be the popular opinion here...
Right. Which is why the NSA needs to stick strictly to its mission of being a foreign intelligence agency. The NSA should never spy on domestic communications, and they should never share that information with law enforcement unless it relates to a foreign/ terror threat.
It is unclear if the NSA, as an organization, is capable of sticking to their assigned mission.
See, this is a good example to use to explain why I am personally torn on some of these matters. And also reveal how some of the more extreme NSA actions have put "good" parts of the program in trouble.
Personally and in theory (because the practice have proven the theory moot), I don't have a problem with the NSA having the capability of digging into any communications. My issue with the NSA has been how they have been exercising that capability-- with no oversight, no accountability, not even auditing. Storing vasts amounts of data, and using even the most tenuous excuse to collect & store more data even when a plain reading of the lie makes it clear that the NSA is spying on those they're prohibited from spying upon.
There are good reasons for the NSA to have this capability, and if properly used could be properly employed to find the bad guys. Instead, we see the NSA abusing this power (which may, I concede, be an inevitable outcome of the program) to simply enlarge the haystack. As a consequence, the NSA ability to dig into any & all communications will be hurt, even as the haystack grows in other ways. Meanwhile, all the needles will have moved elsewhere.
If the NSA wasn't so broadly overreaching elsewhere, I'm not sure that leaking this information *alone* would serve any purpose other than to harm the NSA's ability to perform its mission. However, we know how far beyond its mission the NSA has crept, and this simply provides more evidence that the NSA can crack just about any data on the internet.
The program is brilliant in a way, and if they were just using it to narrowly target foreign or terrorist agents acting against the US, as a citizen I would support the program. In light of the whole mess, it's just more evidence that the NSA wants to vacuum up everything. Laws be damned.
but I think we're all witnessing the ongoing mental breakdown of Edward Snowden. From joining an NSA contractor with the goal of stealing state secrets, to his half-planned attempt to flee, to his embracing of Russian autocrats and Wikileaks provocateurs, it looks like the progression of someone who is having difficulty staying sane. His self-created situation has only exacerbated and accelerated the process.
How long before the University of Michigan chimes in with a trademark claim? Gosh, all we're missing is a patent attorney and we'd have the grand slam of intellectual property: copyright, trademark, patent & publicity.
Not exactly a Venn diagram that would contain a lot of smart listeners."
It's juvenile & insulting. Bad enough that it got voted funniest comment of the week. It's downright pathetic that it got voted most insightful, given the high level of insight Techdirt commenters come up with week after week. As someone who has been following Techdirt for the better part of a decade, it's clear to me that while the audience has grown considerably, the level of reason among the average contributor (commenter) has fallen notably. The best stuff is still there.
If you think I'm just being curmudgeonly, how well would the comment have been received if there were a couple small changes?
"Hardly surprising, given:
A) It's Baltimore, and
B) It's a Rap station.
Not exactly a Venn diagram that would contain a lot of smart listeners."
Either way it's juvenile, factually incorrect, intolerant and elitist.
musicFirst is an organization founded by a group of co-aligned cartels. Collectively, they have not earned profits by competing on the basis of creating better products. Rather, they conspire amongst each other to maintain high prices in order to extract monopoly profits. When even that fails as the market routes around a broken business model, they resort to Plan B.
Plan B, of course, has been spectacularly successful. Essentially they compensate (via lobbying jobs, campaign contributions, and movie cameos) elected officials to pass laws that guarantee these dieing businesses a certain level of revenue. They enlist the FBI & other law enforcement personnel to act as their private police force against the interests of the citizens they are supposed to serve & protect. And finally, public prosecutors serve as their personnel law firm, pursuing average citizens and imprisoning them for what are, at worst, minor torts.
Given the massive sense of entitlement that these failed industries have come to expect, it's no wonder that they have no idea how real businesses work. As the RIAA continues to fail financially, there only recourse is to enlist the state to increase their legally mandated compensation. So, of course they expect Pandora and other businesses to do the same. Not making enough money? Just tell people to give you more! Maybe Pandora should follow the RIAA playbook and begin bribing (because that's what it is) government officials to force advertisers to spend a minimum amount advertising on Pandora each year.
Of course! That's the real solution. Let's make Apple & GM & Coca-Cola support the lazy, unethical RIAA executives by forcing them to each spend $100 Million/ Year on Pandora so that Pandora can continue to pay government-mandated monopoly rents to 4 failing businesses. Or maybe it's 3. I dunno, but pretty sure it will be zero eventually, then maybe we can move past all this. Once the rent-seekers are removed from the equation, I suspect revenue will increase at a greater pace and artist income will likely double or triple as the inefficiencies of the dieing record labels are eliminated and the middlemen found themselves out of a job.