Will Bloom Energy Live Up To The Hype?
from the off-the-grid dept
The 60 Minutes piece hinted that Bloom Energy could be a flop like the Segway -- since both Segway and Bloom Energy share Kleiner Perkins as a backer. Beyond that, though, the amount of skeptical analysis for Bloom Energy seems a bit lacking. The story of a secret lab creating a solution to the world's energy problems is a great fiction. But the reality is likely far less inspiring. Plenty of others point out the reliability and cost issues for using a technology that hasn't yet been around for a decade and takes about 5 years (give or take a couple years) to pay for itself from savings in energy efficiency. A 100kW system costs about $750,000 -- so it's a sizable upfront investment for a company to adopt. Additionally, while the system can run on a variety of fuels, Bloom Boxes are currently using natural gas, which is still a fossil fuel with all the associated drawbacks -- even if the power is generated more efficiently.
Ultimately, more competition for generating clean power benefits all energy-intensive businesses. And as some observers note, these Bloom Boxes may help augment other energy technologies -- such as wind or solar -- for more consistent and reliable alternative energy. But there might need to be a much clearer advantage to installing Bloom Energy's off-the-grid generators. Certainly, Bloom Energy has done a great job of getting lots of attention for its technology, but it hasn't proven that fuel cells will revolutionize the economics of energy production. In fact, more efficient use of fossil fuels may actually delay our move away from non-renewable fuels, meaning Bloom would fall short of the hype in more than one way. Instead of a cost-effective alternative to fossil fuel-based energy, it has so far only delivered a somewhat expensive new way to continue using natural gas.
In the end, though, this demonstrates how true innovation is almost always an ongoing process rather than a "flash of genius." Time and time again we hear about amazing breakthroughs coming out of some secret proprietary lab -- but when they're actually revealed, the reality is just another marginal improvement. It's what happens next that's really important. Bloom is getting all sorts of hype for doing something revolutionary, but the result appears just kind of ordinary, at this point. The real question is: can it actually continue the process of innovation to become something that lives up to the hype? It's that process that's really important, not the initial concept.