Finding The Long Tail In Music

from the it's-out-there dept

In the past we've had an ongoing discussion with some folks on this site concerning whether or not it's now a better time to be a musician than before the internet became central to everything music-related. We've argued that today there are more options and more opportunities for bands than ever, and that's only a good thing. It doesn't mean that every band will be a success or can make a living. That's never going to be true (and has never been true, either). Many will still fail, but there are more tools and opportunities that if you learn to embrace them, you can absolutely do much better than you ever could under the old system -- which required massive backing to become successful. It was the golden lottery ticket story of musical stardom.

Last week, we wrote a post about an interview with Tommy Boy Entertainment boss, Tom Silverman, claiming that just 14 unsigned artists "broke the obscurity line," -- which was defined as sales of 10,000 albums. Amusingly, three days after this post, I met Silverman on an airplane over the Atlantic... and only realized it was him when he started talking to the guy seated next to me about my post not realizing who I was (small freaking world). We had a brief, but quite enjoyable conversation, and while I see his point, I'm still not convinced his conclusion is correct on the issue of breaking artists (his view of business models, however, seems right on). Meanwhile, in the comments to our post, Peter Wells from TuneCore disputed Tom's numbers. Since then, both have expanded on the discussion.

Tom provided more details on the number of totally independent success stories (decreasing the sum from 14 to 12 due to the fact that they had mischategorized 2 of the bands) over at the site. He then went on to claim that the long tail doesn't seem to be working for the music business:
Clearly the ease of making and distributing music does not benefit "breaking" music. Breaking music requires mass exposure which requires luck or money or both. I can say with great authority that less new music is breaking now in America than any other time in history. Technology has not helped more great music rise to the top, it has inhibited it. I know this is a bold statement but it is true.
Certainly bold words, though they did not address my original criticism with the point -- which is that number of albums sold is a poor measure of "obscurity" (or non-obscurity, as the case may be). As I said then: "You don't have to sell albums to become well known, and just because you're well known, it doesn't mean you sell albums. It's not the best proxy for figuring this stuff out." This week, at Midem, musician Hal Ritson of The Young Punx put it much more succinctly: "Sales are not how you measure success any more. You figure out how to get as many people as possible to hear your music, and then you figure out if you're profitable." Also, I still think it's wrong to only count totally independent artists in this list, because many artists signed to labels (both indie and majors) may use new technology to help breakout (with or without massive support from their labels).

Either way, even beyond that, it looks like Silverman's numbers may be suspect. Peter Wells Jeff Price (from Tunecore) followed up Peter Wells' comment on our site with a super detailed post about the problems with Silverman's numbers -- which rely on Nielsen SoundScan data, which Wells Price notes is massively incomplete. He quickly names multiple artists who sold hundreds of thousands of tracks, which aren't measured by SoundScan, and suggests the real issue isn't that new artists can't break, but that the measuring system doesn't take into account how they break these days.

I have to say that Wells' Price's post is quite convincing. It's incredibly well-detailed and provides multiple examples of clearly successful (and hardly obscure) artists that aren't counted by Silverman's method. I still think that the points raised by Silverman about new business models in his original interview were dead on (and even he made the point that sometimes it made sense to release albums totally for free and use other ways of getting money -- which under his own definition would have made them impossible to "break out."). But it seems like there's an awful lot of evidence that our original assertion is still true: there are plenty of artists that are, in fact, breaking out thanks to new technologies -- and many are able to do so without a label. Whether or not it's "harder" to break out today due to increased competition may be another issue, but I'm not yet convinced this is a real problem.

Filed Under: breaking artists, data, long tail, music, peter wells, sales, soundscan, success, tom silverman
Companies: nielsen, tommy boy entertainment, tunecore

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  1. icon
    Peter Wells (profile), 25 Jan 2010 @ 1:27pm

    Re: Finding The Long Tail In Music

    Lots of points to address here, I'll take a few.

    Re: Sadly, Silverman appears to have a good point... (by Lonnie E. Holder):

    ...I do not have hours to scour the internet for new bands and to then find a copy of that band's music. To do so is almost a hobby in itself. Perhaps I had that time as a teenager, but certainly not now.

    But that's the point. If there really were solid ways to show the success artists are already enjoying, then that data could be measured and used and mined. When Tommy says 12 bands (!!) "broke through," he's saying he's got a measure, and by that measure, 12 bands "made it," and if you trust his authority, presumably those are the 12 you'll listen to in your minimal spare time.

    But the data Tommy's using is at best incomplete, and it should be far, far more than 12--and even the definitions of "success" and "breaking through" need to be changed to reflect the new ways people produce and consume music. If that number climbed to something else arbitrary, say, 1,000, then maybe a service would come alone that used the better data to break even that down to manageable chunks you can use to find what appeals to you. The point is, the definitions and existing data (and what we choose to COUNT as data) are way out of step. Pandora, among others (as Mike Masnik noted), is point guard on this. Imagine their algorithms combined with new kinds of data, more complete data, and put into a framework where "success" was given new and multiple definitions. Finding music is going to be FUN.

    That's part of The Anti-Mike's great point, one I make over and over again: success is a big, monolithic and practically useless word, in any general sense. But leaving aside even the vanity case, the point is people ARE hitting "traditionally successful-level" numbers (to coin a phrase), they're just not being counted properly, and the industry is way behind HOW to count them, let alone what to do with the data if they had it. And I'm unfair even to restrict this to "the industry" as if it were one thing located in NY, LA and Nashville. Regions are key, and not just as "stepping stones" to some larger geographical success.

    Alan Gerow's point about people having to buy albums to get songs: that's certainly the way it used to work. But now, people can buy songs, and that's just one thing that's being improperly measured.

    One final note: I appreciate the praise, but Jeff Price, our CEO, wrote those articles. You should hear him talk, too, he brings the same passion and accuracy and attention to real-life examples when he speaks. Back when TuneCore was just the three of us (with Gary Burke), we'd all talk late into the night about how we were going to change this industry.


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