Overhype

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
bottom up, sales, top down



There Are Numbers Less Than 1%

from the reasons-to-buy... dept

I've pointed out in the past, that any time you hear a company talk about their business model in terms of "if we only get 1% of that market... we'll still be huge," you should run away (and, it's even more ridiculous when you hear some talk about 10% or 15% of a market). This is top down thinking, but it's not how businesses work. There's no guarantee of any percent. Instead, any business needs to focus on bottom up reasoning -- explaining why the very first person will buy. Then the second. Then the third, and so on. Taking the top down approach is wishful thinking. It's making a huge assumption that people will just buy. Taking the bottom up approach is actually building a business. It's recognizing who the customer is, what they want and how to best get it to them. It's tempting to do the top down approach, because it looks so tantalizing and easy. But business isn't easy. It's hard work.

I'm reminded of this, with a submission from JohnForDummies about a Derek Sivers blog post, discussing a musician friend who took out an ad in a magazine with 1 million subscribers, repeatedly saying:
"If only one percent of the people reading this magazine buy my CD... that'll be 10,000 copies! And that's only one percent!"
But, as the musician learned there are numbers much smaller than 1%, as he ended up selling just 4 copies of the CD.

This is, in some ways, similar to the give it away and pray business models that we sometimes see people trying. Giving stuff away for free is a good part of a business model, but it's not an entire business model by a longshot. Anyone looking to use free as a part of a business model also needs to go further and do the hard part, the bottom up part, where they figure out how they're going to get anyone (not a percentage, but specific people) to actually find something worth paying for on its own. Because $0 from a million people is still $0. But, reaching 1,000 people with something of value that they want and can't get any other way... that's the start of a business model.

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  1. identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 29 Sep 2009 @ 11:22am

    Re: Re: Along those lines...

    Wow, lighten up. It was hardly spamming; the guy didn't even leave a link (other than his name). If he was trying to spam Techdirt as free advertising, then he did a pretty poor job of it.

    The games are actually not bad. My kid is still playing plunge and enjoying it. Perhaps they don't have the polish of the really big game companies, but they don't seem to install the crapware that comes with those, either. If they are fun for the intended audience, then they are doing what they are supposed to do.

    Still, you do make some valid points. I don't think the games in their current forms are going to make anyone rich. But who knows, perhaps someone from the big companies hires them. Perhaps they hook up with someone who knows how to market what they have. It could work out. And if they are having fun making them, then anything beyond that is pure profit.


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