Wed, Aug 1st 2007 1:59pm
When Apple reported its opening weekend iPhone sales, Wall Street was disappointed that the 270,000 figure it gave out failed to hit much loftier estimates. Of course, this raises the old question: did Apple miss estimates or did analysts mis-estimate? In a sense, the answer is always both, although its worth exploring why the numbers were so far apart. Looking into this question, Carl Bialik notes that Wall Street analysts basically got caught up in emotional hype, as each one tried to outdo each other by making bolder predictions. Their mistakes were exacerbated by the use of small sample sizes, which they mistakenly extrapolated across the country. Analysts make predictions about unit sales all the time for all kinds of products, but you have to wonder how they can accurately predict the future when they can't even correctly gauge what's already happened.
If you liked this post, you may also be interested in...
- That Story About Uber Tracking People After They Deleted The App? Yeah, That's Not Really Accurate
- Apple Takes Heat For Software Lock That Prevents iPhone 7 Home Button Replacement By Third-Party Vendors
- No, The Wall St. Bull Sculptor Doesn't 'Have A Point'
- The Bull Statue Copyright Claim Is Ridiculous... But Here's Why It Just Might Work
- Techdirt Podcast Episode 114: Alexa, Play This Podcast