Predictions

by Mike Masnick




DVDs Are The Last Hard Data Format

from the not-if-Hollywood-can-help-it dept

George Colony is predicting that DVDs are the last "hard" data format for carrying around bits. Instead, we'll just have everything on the network, and you can access your movies and music and whatever else from anywhere with any device. Why carry around a DVD when you can just download the movie? Of course, this makes sense to a bunch of people, and it's been discussed to death. The entrenched entertainment industry will fight this as much as possible, but they won't be able to hold back. If they realize in time what's going to happen, they might be able to embrace it and survive. If they continue to fight it, it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy, and those companies will go out of business (while others start to make lots of money based on new business models).

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  • identicon
    Phillip Bond, 11 Dec 2002 @ 10:57am

    Mr. Colony is right

    Mr. Colony is dead right. The preconceived notions that most of us hold regarding music, entertainment and distribution will be revised in short order. We can begin to realize the change coming by looking at one simple observation, the album. Ten or twelve songs constitute an album, why, because thatís all they could fit on a vinyl disc. Itís funny how we hold on to our old ways. With the advent of digital technology and the Internet it is no longer an album world, but a singles world.
    Change is coming and it will be difficult for artists and consumers too.
    Forget about the music or entertainment industry, they are dinosaurs making a lot of noise before they hit the arena floor. Donít worry; the entertainment dinosaur falling wonít go unnoticed, there will be a lot of noise and dust when this giant hits, and the screams are being heard even as we speak.
    Who rises from the dust of the fallen giant is what concerns me

    reply to this | link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 11 Dec 2002 @ 11:15am

    Yeah, right

    Like D-Theater does not exist

    reply to this | link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    dorpus, 11 Dec 2002 @ 1:42pm

    What about obscure music?

    I listen to small-label or old stuff that could never be found on the net.

    Every format change inevitably loses the more obscure data available only in the old version. The media industry is rushing to lose old things, it seems.

    reply to this | link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    Regeant, 11 Dec 2002 @ 4:50pm

    Not going to happen

    Pieces like this assume a Sci-Fi type network, like on Star Trek, that never goes down or loses huge chunks of data. The real internet is nowhere near that reliable.

    I would rather buy a CD for $15 than pay a cent each time I listen to it. And if I buy a CD, I want a physical copy that I can do with as I please. I don't want something that will be inaccessible if my internet connection goes down. And I really don't want to "buy" something when the only record of my purchase exists in someone else's system, and if they lose that record I no longer "own" it.

    reply to this | link to this | view in chronology ]

    • icon
      Mike (profile), 11 Dec 2002 @ 4:55pm

      Re: Not going to happen

      Ah, but what if you owned the server...? What if you could buy music that you could host on your own server and access anywhere? Even better, what if it were replicated across the network on a trusted P2P network that would recognize you as the owner, so if one machine went down you'd still have access to all your digital files.

      reply to this | link to this | view in chronology ]

      • identicon
        Anonymous Coward, 12 Dec 2002 @ 8:22am

        Re: Not going to happen, redux


        The issue isn't storage, it's access, speed and control. And as we move toward wireless networks, they become even more important considerations. I'll take massive local/removable storage over network storage, if only because the latter can be instantly gone - by chance or design. I don't really have a lot of faith or trust in either MS or the Fed really making an effort to protect my interests.

        reply to this | link to this | view in chronology ]

        • identicon
          Tatum, 12 Dec 2002 @ 1:00pm

          Re: Not going to happen, redux

          "The issue isn't storage, it's access, speed and control." I completely agree with this statement- which supports the network metered delivery argument others are making here. The delivery mechanism for media products will be *mostly* done through the network- and it's already happening. Services like Rhapsody allow you to "rent" music as well as "own" music by purchasing downloads. The music that you own can be downloaded to your laptop, iPod, etc, and accessed when the network is unavailable. That should appease your ease of use issues. You may also decide to burn your digital assets to DVD/CD for more convenient access, storage and/or portability too. As soon as there are enough devices and platforms that enable convenient access to digital assets, there will be more content available through the network- at reasonable prices. So forget the limited availability of content and price point for the moment. This is a temporary problem.

          Whether DVD, portable storage devices, or home media servers are the best storage media for your assets remains to be seen. Personally, I use both the iPod and ripped DVD/CDs to serve my needs, and Iím sure I will utilize a media server once I find one at a price point that meets my needs to store and distribute. I think all three will be a part of the landscape moving forward, as consumers determine their preference.

          reply to this | link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    kai, 11 Dec 2002 @ 6:05pm

    No Subject Given

    Hmm. I see instead a future where you have very large storage capacity on a small, credit-card sized object. You would slide that card into local computers/mp3 players/dvd players/ whatever; and it would have all your data/music/movies on it.

    reply to this | link to this | view in chronology ]


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