Cutting Through The Nanohype
from the top-down-numbers-are-useless dept
If you’ve been paying attention to the buzz lately, you’ve been hearing a lot about “nanotech”. Small stuff that’s going to make big money, they all say. Where there’s hype, “market research” soon follows, and the latest about nanotech says it’s already huge and growing. But, a closer look at the numbers suggests this isn’t quite true. The definition used for “nanotechnology” is way too broad. It includes lots of stuff that most people don’t consider nanotech at all. The predictions for how much VC is going into nanotech is equally useless. First, they asked a bunch of nanotech companies how much they expected to raise this year. If we compare these numbers to how much they actually raise at the end of the year, I would guess that we’ll be talking an order of magnitude difference. Then there’s my favorite: the top down prediction. “If venture capitalists as a whole invest this much, all we need is 2% to make this much.” I don’t care how big the overall market is, and I don’t care how much of that market you need. I want to know why and how you will actually get anyone to give you money. Don’t buy the hype. Don’t buy the studies.