Recession Predictions Are Useless

from the ignore-'em dept

Apparently, back in February, 95% of American economists thought there was no way we were heading into a recession. Now that it turns out the recession began in March – just one month later – they shouldn’t feel that bad. Economists are very very bad at predicting recessions. They’re only slightly better at predicting when recessions will end, so don’t buy any of those predictions either. The safest bet is that you can say “yes, it will end at some point in the future” and leave it at that. I’m sure, when it really does end, someone will make themselves marginally famous by saying they “correctly” predicted it – and will probably get to write a book saying how smart they are.

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