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<title>Techdirt. Stories filed under &quot;trends&quot;</title>
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<image><title>Techdirt. Stories filed under &quot;trends&quot;</title><url>http://www.techdirt.com/images/td-88x31.gif</url><link>http://www.techdirt.com/</link></image>
<item>
<pubDate>Fri, 16 Nov 2012 07:28:56 PST</pubDate>
<title>Bad Reasoning: We Don't Need More High Speed Internet Because People Don't Use Fast Internet Now</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20121109/23353421001/bad-reasoning-we-dont-need-more-high-speed-internet-because-people-dont-use-fast-internet-now.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20121109/23353421001/bad-reasoning-we-dont-need-more-high-speed-internet-because-people-dont-use-fast-internet-now.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ There's been a lot of discussion lately about how far the US has fallen behind other countries when it comes to high speed broadband.  And many are taking it for granted that high speed broadband is important to economic growth and viability.  Yet Tim Worstall, over at Forbes, argues that <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/11/08/high-speed-broadband-doesnt-matter-a-darn/" target="_blank">"High Speed Broadband Doesn't Matter A Darn"</a> because a UK study showed that people don't use super high speeds.  He quotes <a href="http://www.go-on.co.uk/files/7313/5227/8439/Final_Booz_Embargoed_Nov7.pdf" target="_blank">a report</a> (pdf) from Booz &#038; Co.
<blockquote><i>
But speed in itself is not enough to encourage usage. Ofcom (an independent regulatory authority for U.K.
communications industries) has noted that in 2011 superfast coverage of the U.K. was at 60 percent, but only 6.6
percent of all connections were taking advantage of the top speeds. This suggests that focusing on availability is
no guarantee of deriving full benefit from the investment.
</i></blockquote>
Worstall then uses this to argue that speed isn't an issue and we shouldn't invest in faster broadband:
<blockquote><i>
As should be obvious, it&#8217;s not the speed of the internet that produces the economic growth. It&#8217;s the people using the internet that does. And if only 6.6% of the traffic is using the speeds we already have then there really isn&#8217;t much of a case for throwing billions at making it all faster. So that, presumably, only 6.6% of the traffic will use that higher speed.
<br /><br />
In fact, given the low numbers even bothering to use current speeds I&#8217;d say this is a very good argument for not spending a lot of money to roll out high speed broadband everywhere. The most important reason quite possibly being that I rather doubt that broadband is going to be the technology of choice for much longer.
</i></blockquote>
This reasoning is faulty on many, many levels.  First off, if you look at the full Booz report, almost every conclusion is exactly the opposite of what Worstall suggests.  He seems to take that one paragraph out of context, and assume that because only a small percentage of people were taking advantage of "top speeds" it means that there's no real demand for it and no economic benefit.
<br /><br />
That's making a big assumption.  He's right that "it's not the speed of the internet that produces the economic growth," and that it's the people, but he ignores that part of what brings in those people are the services online -- and new, better and more useful services are quite frequently enabled by higher speeds.  It's almost hard to imagine how much more can be done online as speeds pick up.  A decade ago, the idea of so much video online was <i>crazy</i>.  And yet, here we are.
<br /><br />
Second, the fact that only a small percentage of people are using full broadband capabilities is meaningless.  That's a snapshot, not a look at the trend.  What happens is that as more services offer up useful features that increase the number of things you can <i>do</i> with broadband, more people will use it.  The last thing you want to do is get caught waiting -- and then suddenly have all your users pissed off that the broadband can't handle the latest and greatest applications and use cases.
<br /><br />
Faster broadband doesn't immediately get soaked up, but it does lead to greater investment in bandwidth-intensive services, and that will increase usage and expand the economy.  Taking one quote out of context and then looking at a snapshot rather than a trend is not a particularly compelling reason to pull out on key infrastructure investment at a time when it's needed most.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20121109/23353421001/bad-reasoning-we-dont-need-more-high-speed-internet-because-people-dont-use-fast-internet-now.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20121109/23353421001/bad-reasoning-we-dont-need-more-high-speed-internet-because-people-dont-use-fast-internet-now.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20121109/23353421001/bad-reasoning-we-dont-need-more-high-speed-internet-because-people-dont-use-fast-internet-now.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>the-point-is-way-over-yonder</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Tue, 16 Oct 2012 09:52:09 PDT</pubDate>
<title>It Is Easy For People To Miss Disruptive Trends</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20121007/00064520631/it-is-easy-people-to-miss-disruptive-trends.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20121007/00064520631/it-is-easy-people-to-miss-disruptive-trends.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ People are notoriously bad at recognizing important trends in innovation.  It's most commonly seen in people dismissing some new technology or service as being unimportant. Over and over again, people seem to think that the world is static and thus, people "won't need" certain technologies in the future.  There are statements like Ken Olsen's from DEC claiming that "there is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home" (which he has since claimed was taken out of context) or Charlie Chaplin claiming: "The cinema is little more than a fad. It's canned drama. What audiences really want to see is flesh and blood on the stage."  Those are both from <a href="http://listverse.com/2007/10/28/top-30-failed-technology-predictions/" target="_blank">this excellent list</a> of failed technology predictions -- including a bank telling Henry Ford that "the horse is here to stay" and that the car is just "a novelty -- a fad," and multiple people arguing that there is no need for the telephone, including the head of the British Post Office, noting (helpfully) "we have plenty of messenger boys."  Oh, and "Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months.  People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."  That's from someone who worked as a movie producer for Fox.
<br /><br />
There are many more at that link, and I imagine in a few decades or so, the prediction from TechCrunch that <a href="http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/06/there-is-no-reason-for-any-individual-to-have-a-3d-printer-in-their-home/?fb_comment_id=http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/06/there-is-no-reason-for-any-individual-to-have-a-3d-printer-in-their-home/" target="_blank">"there is no reason for any individual to have a 3D printer in their home"</a> would fit nicely among those other ones.  There's just something about new and disruptive technologies that causes otherwise intelligent people to completely dismiss them.  I still chuckle at people who thought that cameraphones were <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20031120/212325.shtml">just a fad</a> because their initial quality wasn't that good.
<br /><br />
Technology advances and gets better and better.  And a disruptive technology's best trick is that it does something <i>completely new that you couldn't have done before</i>.  And that's the part that seems to trip people up.  You don't need 3D printing in your home now, the thinking goes, so it'll never be worth having in your home.  Entrepreneur Mark Birch has a really good response to the TechCrunch claim, noting that <a href="http://birch.co/post/33053668875/i-am-for-the-mad-ones" target="_blank">a lot of people completely miss disruptive trends when they start</a>:
<blockquote><i>
It is easy to miss the disruptive trend when it is first happening.  Because it is often the nerds that are leading the charge, no one pays it any mind.  There certainly is some initial hype, but it usually fades quickly because there is nothing for the mainstream to latch onto.  They need to see and touch something and thus it is hard for non-geeks to make the mental leap in how the novel technology could be important for their everyday lives.  People are looking for applicability when that does not exist in the early days.
<br /><br />
The reality of 3D printing is that it is not for everyone right now.  In fact, only the most hardcore techie could really get into it and fork over the $1000 for the setup.  Very few people can fathom why one would want a 3D printing in his or her home.  But people said the same thing when the first dot matrix printers came on the market.  They were clunky and slow and expensive and broke down all the time.  Plus, who would want to print stuff at home anyway other than computer nerds?  Now practically every home has a color printer capable of producing high-quality photos, greeting cards, spreadsheets, novels, and the kid&#8217;s homework.
<br /><br />
There are plenty of things to be skeptical about, but never underestimate what the geeks are working on.  When you get past the hype cycles of &#8220;next big thing&#8221; and look deeper, you find that all that tinkering and experimenting is leading to something that is pretty remarkable and world changing.  It might be hard to see at first, but with a little imagination and time, those early experiments generally lead to entire new industries and to the next generation of great companies.
</i></blockquote>
I'd take it even further.  I'd say that if people aren't missing the trend, then it's not disruptive.  What makes disruptive innovation so disruptive is often the very fact that so many people dismiss it and insist that nothing will come of it.  It's that dismissiveness that often helps the innovation become so powerful, because it gets better and better while people are so busy writing it off.  And then, suddenly, it's ready and the world wants it.  And the incumbent players, who dismissed it, all feel taken by surprise.
<br /><br />
It's easy to miss disruptive trends when they arrive -- but the long term impact of doing so can be quite disastrous for those about to be disrupted.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20121007/00064520631/it-is-easy-people-to-miss-disruptive-trends.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20121007/00064520631/it-is-easy-people-to-miss-disruptive-trends.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20121007/00064520631/it-is-easy-people-to-miss-disruptive-trends.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>and-then-they-look-silly-for-it-later</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Mon, 1 Oct 2012 15:54:17 PDT</pubDate>
<title>Yes, There Are Many, Many, Many, Many Legal Uses Of BitTorrent</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20120928/23265120546/yes-there-are-many-many-many-many-legal-uses-bittorrent.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20120928/23265120546/yes-there-are-many-many-many-many-legal-uses-bittorrent.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ When the VCR first came on the market, nearly 100% of the TV and movie content it was used for was "unauthorized," because the big studios refused to offer films.  Of course, thankfully, the Supreme Court eventually made it clear that just because it was "unauthorized," it didn't mean that taping TV for later watching was "infringing."  But, if the metric you used to judge whether or not a new technology is a "pirate technology" is what percentage of its use was "unauthorized," you get a very skewed picture.  Early on, all sorts of new and innovative technologies are mostly used for unauthorized copies... until the industry catches up.  However, people don't often deal with trends very well, and they assume, quite incorrectly, that if a technology is initially used in an unauthorized manner, it must be a "piracy tool" and no amount of discussing how trends and adaptation works will convince them otherwise.  Lately, there has been plenty of talk about BitTorrent -- with a few cases here and there pointing out that a high percentage (usually over 90% of works are infringing).  The argument being made is that there is little redeeming value with BitTorrent since it's almost exclusively used for infringement.
<br /><br />
Of course, over time, things change.  Content creators begin to embrace the new, realize that it might not be evil, and suddenly we see more and more interesting case studies.  And that seems to be happening with BitTorrent.  The recent MusicMetric analysis of BitTorrent downloads for the first six months of 2012 found that 31% of downloads were for authorized files.  Now, you can argue that this is still less than half of all files -- but it's a big step up from the standard claims that somewhere between 1% and 10% were authorized.  It seems quite likely that the trend is moving in the right direction.
<br /><br />
In an effort to highlight just how much authorized content is shared using BitTorrent, Bittorrent Inc. put together a <a href="http://featuredcontent.utorrent.com/too-legit/" target="_blank">neat graphic representation of just one day's authorized downloads</a>, creating a massive page that includes a single dot for every authorized download.  We've put a snapshot of just a small portion of that image below this post... but that's really only a fragment.  If you go to the full page, there's an awful lot of scrolling involved.  And that's because it's showing 689,955 authorized downloads.  In a single day.  Not bad.
<br /><br />
In case you're wondering who's actually offering up music that's getting downloaded like this, Eliot van Buskirk tracked down the top ten authorized music acts on BitTorrent, which turns up a few surprises.
<ol><i>
	<li>Death Grips: 34,151,432</li>
	<li>Counting Crows: 26,950,427</li>
	<li>Billy Van: 18,702,053</li>
	<li>Gods Robot: 12,172,672</li>
	<li>Way Too Sick: 9,974,321</li>
	<li>Paz: 6,485,001</li>
	<li>Bray: 5,878,492</li>
	<li>Pretty Lights: 5,005,061</li>
	<li>DJ Shadow: 4,349,048</li>
	<li>Chester French: 523,356</li>
</i></ol>
As Eliot notes, that number one legal download, Death Grips, is signed to a major label deal on Epic (part of Sony Music).  The Counting Crows are obviously a big name as well, and we <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/casestudies/articles/20120514/11021618915/counting-crows-distribute-songs-more-via-bittorrent.shtml">wrote about</a> their decision to use BitTorrent.  They're ex-big label, but now independent.  Also, DJ Shadow and Chester French were both associated with Universal sub-labels, though I do not know if either are still "signed."  Either way, it's interesting to see that it's a mix of artists, including some from major labels and some others.  It certainly looks like, perhaps, the idea that BitTorrent is just for infringement may have to be officially considered debunked.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20120928/23265120546/yes-there-are-many-many-many-many-legal-uses-bittorrent.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20120928/23265120546/yes-there-are-many-many-many-many-legal-uses-bittorrent.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20120928/23265120546/yes-there-are-many-many-many-many-legal-uses-bittorrent.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>too-legit-to-quit</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Wed, 9 May 2012 17:00:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>DailyDirt: A Logo With Any Other Name..?</title>
<dc:creator>Michael Ho</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100528/0853469618/dailydirt-logo-with-any-other-name.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100528/0853469618/dailydirt-logo-with-any-other-name.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ Some companies spend a lot of effort tweaking their logo and making sure their brand image stays shiny and new. But how much does it really matter? There are some truly iconic corporate logos, but it's really the businesses behind the logos that create the image of the company. Not the other way around. Or maybe a nice reliable-looking logo really does inspire a company and its employees to bleed purple or <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/yahoo-investor-says-ceo-lied-tech-degree-200908609--finance.html">something</a>....

<ul>

<li> <a title="http://www.logodesignlove.com/indifferent" href="http://bit.ly/JRoxLL">Would you even notice if the name and logo didn't match?</a> A project by Tommaso Guerra mixes up a few recognizable logos and brands; Guerra isn't the first to do this and he won't be the last... [<a href="http://www.logodesignlove.com/indifferent">url</a>]</li>

<li> <a title="http://static.colourlovers.com.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/top-web-brand-colors.html" href="http://bit.ly/LHTlF1">A hundred web brands and their logos make a pretty rainbow.</a> Except the main colors are either blue or red -- with just a little green, yellow, orange, purple and gray. [<a href="http://static.colourlovers.com.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/top-web-brand-colors.html">url</a>]</li>

<li> <a title="http://www.logolounge.com/article.asp?aid=llPo" href="http://bit.ly/Jc3ZEi">LogoLounge has published its 10th annual logo trends report, pointing out a few common logo elements that some designers are (over-)using.</a> With the potato chip logo, perhaps once you pop, you can't stop. [<a href="http://www.logolounge.com/article.asp?aid=llPo">url</a>]</li>

<li><b>To discover more interesting advertising-related content, <a title="http://www.stumbleupon.com/to/stumble/topic:448" href="http://bit.ly/osqk34">check out what's floating around on StumbleUpon.</a></b> [<a href="http://www.stumbleupon.com/to/stumble/topic:448">url</a>]  <a title="what's this?" href="#" class="whatsthis help_ddstumble">&nbsp;</a>
</li>
</ul> 

By the way, StumbleUpon can recommend some good <a title="http://www.stumbleupon.com/to/stumble/stumblethru:www.techdirt.com" href="http://bit.ly/fagV8c">Techdirt</a> articles, too.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100528/0853469618/dailydirt-logo-with-any-other-name.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100528/0853469618/dailydirt-logo-with-any-other-name.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100528/0853469618/dailydirt-logo-with-any-other-name.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>urls-we-dig-up</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Fri, 3 Dec 2010 11:03:10 PST</pubDate>
<title>The Inevitability Of Wikileaks</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101202/23130812100/inevitability-wikileaks.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101202/23130812100/inevitability-wikileaks.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ Yet another excellent post over at the Economist highlighting <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2010/12/after_secrets" target="_blank">the key mistake that those arguing against Wikileaks seem to be making</a>: it's the idea that these kinds of things can be stopped.  It's this idea that if Julian Assange is killed or if Wikileaks <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101202/22322512099/wikileaks-says-its-site-has-been-killed.shtml">loses its domain</a> or even if people are brought to trial over this, that somehow, somewhere, such data leaks won't happen any more.  As the Economist notes:
<blockquote><i>
<b>Jailing Thomas Edison in 1890 would not have darkened the night.</b>
</i></blockquote>
This is <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101026/01311411586/the-revolution-will-be-distributed-wikileaks-anonymous-and-how-little-the-old-guard-realizes-what-s-going-on.shtml">exactly the point</a> I was trying to make a couple months ago, in pointing out the impossibility of stopping truly distributed systems through conventional means (whether the distributed systems are doing good or bad things), and how little the people in power recognize this.
<blockquote><i>
Yet the debate over WikiLeaks has proceeded <b>as if the matter might conclude with the eradication of these kinds of data dumps--as if this is a temporary glitch in the system that can be fixed; as if this is a nuisance that can be made to go away with the application of sufficient government gusto</b>. But I don't think the matter can end this way. Just as technology has made it easier for governments and corporations to snoop ever more invasively into the private lives of individuals, it has also made it easier for individuals, working alone or together, to root through and make off with the secret files of governments and corporations. WikiLeaks is simply an early manifestation of what I predict will be a more-or-less permanent feature of contemporary life, and a more-or-less permanent constraint on strategies of secret-keeping.  
</i></blockquote>
This is about dealing with reality, but so many of those in charge are working from the wrong playbook -- the one that doesn't realize that this is the new reality.
<blockquote><i>
The basic question is not whether we think Julian Assange is a terrorist or a hero. The basic question certainly is not whether we think exposing the chatter of the diplomatic corps helps or hinders their efforts, and whether this is a good or bad thing. To continue to focus on these questions is to miss the forest for the texture of the bark on a single elm. <b>If we take the inevitability of future large leaks for granted, then I think the debate must eventually centre on the things that will determine the supply of leakers and leaks</b>. Some of us wish to encourage in individuals the sense of justice which would embolden them to challenge the institutions that control our fate by bringing their secrets to light. Some of us wish to encourage in individuals ever greater fealty and submission to corporations and the state in order to protect the privileges and prerogatives of the powerful, lest their erosion threaten what David Brooks calls "the fragile community"--our current, comfortable dispensation.
</i></blockquote>
Again, this is why I have pointed out the <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101202/02243512089/how-response-to-wikileaks-is-exactly-what-assange-wants.shtml">similarities</a> between the whole Wikileaks situation and the entertainment industry's response to file sharing.  In the latter, it was never about whether or not file sharing was good or bad, moral or immoral, or even (really) whether or not it helps or hinders the creative lives of certain individuals or companies.  What happened with file sharing was an inevitability, and the focus from the beginning should have been about figuring out "what do we do now, knowing this reality."  
<br /><br />
For years, I've said that one of the reasons I focused so much on the music industry was that I hoped other arenas that faced similar questions would learn from the mistakes of that one industry.  And, yet, we see time and time again that this almost never happens.  We've seen the movie industry, the software industry, the video game industry, the publishing industry and more follow the same path making the same mistakes.  And now we're seeing the US government do it too -- and this is a case where the stakes may be much, much bigger.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101202/23130812100/inevitability-wikileaks.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101202/23130812100/inevitability-wikileaks.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101202/23130812100/inevitability-wikileaks.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>if-you-strike-me-down...</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Tue, 24 Aug 2010 07:05:22 PDT</pubDate>
<title>TV, Cable Companies Convincing Themselves People Don't Want To Cut The Cable</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100823/01204410723.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100823/01204410723.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ There's a NY Times article that appears to have a bunch of cable & TV companies <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/business/media/23couch.html?src=twt&twt=nytimestech&pagewanted=all" target="_blank">congratulating themselves for beating the internet</a> in getting people to keep paying high monthly premiums to get premium TV channels on their TV, rather than using some of the various internet solutions out there.  Like so many awful NY Times "trend" pieces these days, it appears to key off of a <i>single anecdote</i> of one guy who tried to ditch cable, and then went back after a year.  How many people are actually doing this?  No idea.  It's not like the reporters at the NY Times tell us.  They do tell us that not too many people have dropped cable, but that's hardly surprising.  What's much more amusing is the suggestion that the cable and TV companies have somehow "beat" the internet by restricting content:
<blockquote><i>
In part that is because the television business took action to avoid the same fate. Heavyweight distributors and producers have protected their business models by ensuring that some must-see shows and live sporting events cannot legally be seen online. 
</i></blockquote>
Legally.  Yes.  But, just wait until you see what that enables on the less-than-legal side of the internet.  As for the fact that people aren't dropping cable yet, this all really sounds like the cable companies not recognizing <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/entrepreneurs/articles/20100808/00561810539.shtml">how trends accelerate</a>.  They do, indeed, start slow, and as Clayton Christensen has noted for years, the incumbents don't pay attention early on, because the other solutions just don't seem as good.  And... here in the NY Times article we get:
<blockquote><i>
Technology companies are pushing alternatives like Web-connected set-top boxes. But these are still not as easy as signing up for cable or satellite service, particularly for those who want to watch on a big flat-screen TV and not a computer. 
</i></blockquote>
Classic innovator's dilemma statement.  It's certainly true that, right now, it's not as easy to use these internet services as it is to sign up for cable, but it's getting easier all the time, and sooner or later, someone is going to create a breakthrough service that makes it really easy.  We've seen it time and time again.  Napster did it for music file sharing after we were told that people didn't want music online.  Vonage did it for VoIP after telcos insisted that VoIP quality would never sell.  Who knows who it will be, or when, but someone will figure it out, and then we'll see the cable and TV companies freak out, because the cable cutters will shift into high gear.
<br><br>
This is the problem we were discussing <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/entrepreneurs/articles/20100808/00561810539.shtml">recently</a>, where disrupted companies simply don't recognize the speed at which a disruptive offering catches on when it does finally catch on.  They think that they're successfully "protecting" their existing business with things like <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100629/13281010005.shtml">Hulu's subscription plans</a>, but that will cause them to miss the truly disruptive innovation.
<br><br>
At least the NY Times article hints at the growing undercurrent, in noting that the younger generation is four times as likely to go without a cable subscription.  That number is just going to grow, and as new offerings come along that make it easier and easier to get what you want, when you want it, without silly restrictions, the idea that the legacy guys "beat" the internet by restricting access to content will seem laughable.
<br><br>
<b>Update</b>: And look... just as this is published, out comes the news that cable TV has <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67N1A420100824?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtechnologyNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Technology%29" target="_blank">suffered its first ever decline in subscribers</a>.  Nice work, NY Times, in pitching a whole story based on a single anecdote, about how cable has nothing to fear... just as the numbers come out to show that people are, in fact, cutting back on cable subscriptions.  I'm sure stories like this will make the upcoming NY Times paywall that much more valuable.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100823/01204410723.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100823/01204410723.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100823/01204410723.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>the-self-delusion-of-the-damned</slash:department>
<wfw:commentRss>http://www.techdirt.com/comment_rss.php?sid=20100823/01204410723</wfw:commentRss>
</item>
<item>
<pubDate>Wed, 18 Aug 2010 05:43:19 PDT</pubDate>
<title>Now That The Ringtone Market Is Collapsing, Are There Lessons For Those Who Are Jumping On The App Bandwagon?</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20100813/17501710624.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20100813/17501710624.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ Back in 2003/2004, both the music and the mobile industries became infatuated with ringtones.  These short snippets of music were selling for 2.5 times (or more) what a single (full) music file was selling for, and the market was growing rapidly.  Of course, some of this was due to <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20050919/095941.shtml">incredibly shady practices</a>, such as tricking people into thinking they were buying a single ringtone, when they were really signing up for a monthly subscription.  However, from the very beginning of the ringtone revolution, we were amazed at how many folks in the industry talked about ringtones as a savior.  As we pointed out in 2004, it wasn't hard to predict that <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20040525/1141208_F.shtml">ringtone sales would peak and fall</a>.  First of all, it would become increasingly easy to take music that people had from elsewhere (authorized or not) and convert it to a ringtone, and secondly, it wouldn't be all that long until unauthorized ringtones became easy to set up as well.
<br /><br />
But the industry has a way of overhyping a fad that's happening "now," and betting it will be its savior.
<br /><br />
And, of course, exactly what was predicted way back when is now coming true.  The ringtone market <a href="http://paidcontent.co.uk/article/419-how-two-former-ringtone-giants-are-faring-as-that-market-crumbles/" target="_blank">has been on the decline for a few years now</a>, as people realized they didn't need to pay exorbitant prices for a tiny snippet of music anymore.
<br /><br />
This is why we should think carefully whenever we hear people claiming that "app stores" <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/itinnovation/articles/20100209/0300008093.shtml">are the new saviors</a> of various content industries (or, for that matter, the mobile industry).  While app stores are a bit more defensible than pure ringtones, it's likely to still face the same basic trajectory, as people realize that apps are just data, and there are increasing opportunities for <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20100730/00083610420.shtml">more open solutions</a> to route around locked-down versions.  People seem to think there's some sort of magic in "apps," but they're really just the same sort of digital content that has been hard, economically, to monetize long term.  There are ways to do it, but simply assuming that apps alone will be the answer is likely to end in disappointment.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20100813/17501710624.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20100813/17501710624.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20100813/17501710624.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>this-won't-save-your-business</slash:department>
<wfw:commentRss>http://www.techdirt.com/comment_rss.php?sid=20100813/17501710624</wfw:commentRss>
</item>
<item>
<pubDate>Fri, 2 Jul 2010 02:15:14 PDT</pubDate>
<title>Why iPhone Broadband Caps Aren't Actually A 'Good Deal'</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20100701/02485310041.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20100701/02485310041.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ There was a lot of attention paid recently to a study from Nielsen concerning <a href="http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/entner-quantifying-mobile-data-tsunami-and-its-implications/2010-06-29" target="_blank">how much data smartphone users consume</a>.  One of the things that some pulled from this report was the idea that AT&#038;T's new <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100602/0418289655.shtml">iPhone usage caps</a> were somehow <a href="http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2010/06/29/research-concludes-that-tiered-data-plans-are-a-win-for-consumers/" target="_blank">a "good deal" for consumers</a>, since many appeared to use less than AT&#038;T's first tier cap.  That's because of the following statement from Nielsen, which certainly implies that:
<blockquote><i>
Usage-based pricing may be more fair. The top 6 percent of smart phone users are consuming half of all data. The vast majority of customers, 99 percent according to the 60,000 phone bills that Nielsen collects and analyzes every month as part of their Customer Value Metrics product, are better off with a pricing scheme like AT&#038;T's new data pricing model than under flat-rate pricing where they are paying for much more than they ever use.
</i></blockquote>
Of course, the reality is a bit more complicated.  Thankfully, Broadband Reports explains why these claims <a href="http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/Average-Smartphone-User-Consumes-298MB-A-Month-109138" target="_blank">ignore important trends and other factors</a>:
<blockquote><i>
While many people are applauding AT&#038;T's new data pricing plans as money savers for light users <b>today</b> -- they're not looking at <b>tomorrow's</b> big picture. One, Nielsen ignores the fact that carriers are now making data plans mandatory for smartphone users who previously only used Wi-Fi. That's not "more fair," nor does it save money. Nielsen takes the stance that light users somehow need to be "educated" into consuming more data -- yet many of those users simply prefer to use their device's Wi-Fi functionality alone. That's no longer possible.<br /><br />

Two, the <b>average</b> user already consumes 298MB of data -- while AT&#038;T's base cap is 200 MB. That cap's set just low enough to push today's average user to the higher, $25 a month tier (plus overages, ETFs, an endless assortment of fees). That average is going to quickly skyrocket and the heavy user of today will become the average user of tomorrow -- yet instead of having the option of a simple, unlimited data tier at a fair price -- they'll face heavy and often confusing overages just as smartphones begin seeing interesting video service integration (Netflix, Hulu). That's not about saving money, it's about making money.<br /><br />

Again, incumbent wireless companies are not in the business of making less money, and this new media meme that a shift to low caps and high overages is about saving consumers money, or fairness, or <a href="http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/109058">helping minorities</a> -- is simply absurd. If telecom analysts want to analyze -- they should be noting that carriers and investors see the death of SMS and voice minutes heading their direction -- and are changing pricing models to  compensate and cash in on an explosion in wireless video (or streaming wireless audio) use. But the suggestion that this shift is driven by altruism is bizarre and disingenuous.
</i></blockquote>
There's also the fact that, with the new plans, if you want to use tethering, it'll run you an extra $20/month -- not to mention that tethering will increase data usage.  It also ignores the mental transaction costs when you know you have a cap and potential overages that discourages usage, just as more apps are coming online to encourage usage.  The really damning part, of course, is just the basic trend that data usage is increasing and that's not going to slow down any time soon.  AT&#038;T smartly set its caps so that it could get analysts to make these kinds of claims, ignoring that a couple years from the average data will be much higher and more and more people will be pushed to higher, significantly more expensive options.
<br /><br />
What's kind of amazing here is how no one seems to look back at the consumer internet access costs for comparison.  In the early days, when many people had AOL, there were caps and metered billing.  And some people used it, certainly, but it was nothing compared to what happened when AOL finally dropped its caps and suddenly people could really embrace and use the internet without worrying about hitting their usage cap.  Unlimited internet access is what helped drive internet usage, making it such a powerful and useful platform. Mobile operators seem to want to go in the other direction and are working hard to try to limit how useful many people find their phones, due to limiting data plans.  That doesn't seem all that compelling or "fair."<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20100701/02485310041.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20100701/02485310041.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/wireless/articles/20100701/02485310041.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>trends,-people,-trends</slash:department>
<wfw:commentRss>http://www.techdirt.com/comment_rss.php?sid=20100701/02485310041</wfw:commentRss>
</item>
<item>
<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 04:17:15 PDT</pubDate>
<title>The Google Trends Suicide Watch</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090710/0243185509.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090710/0243185509.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ Jeremy Wagstaff has done a fascinating (if morbid) little analysis using Google Trends to <a href="http://www.loosewireblog.com/2009/06/googles-suicide-watch.html" target="_new">track the popularity of the search phrase "commit suicide painlessly."</a>  Perhaps not too surprisingly, it appears to track the economy.  That is, it was relatively flat for a while, but spiked in October 2008 through March 2009 -- though, it's since come back down.  As he notes, this isn't exactly a small blip -- it was over an extended period of time.  He digs down a bit in the data, which suggests that while the US is a lot less suicidal these days, things are still a bit on edge over in the UK (you guys doing ok?).  What would be interesting now would be to correlate that data with <i>actual suicides</i>.  Oddly, Wagstaff notes that a similar boost is <i>not</i> seen in just the basic search of "how to commit suicide."  That makes me wonder if the "commit suicide painlessly" search is suffering from a small sample size problem.  Still, it's yet another fun little "economic indicator" found from public data, similar to the post we had recently on analyzing job trends via <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090601/1921425088.shtml">Facebook status</a>.  While the data might not mean much yet, the fact that there is so much more data so easily accessible is really powerful.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090710/0243185509.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090710/0243185509.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090710/0243185509.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>well,-that's-depressing</slash:department>
<wfw:commentRss>http://www.techdirt.com/comment_rss.php?sid=20090710/0243185509</wfw:commentRss>
</item>
<item>
<pubDate>Tue, 2 Jun 2009 11:11:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>When You Can Hold Every Song Ever Recorded In Your Pocket... Does $1/Song Still Make Sense?</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090530/2256555068.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090530/2256555068.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ Martin Thornkvist, who runs a (very cool) indie record label in Sweden that believes in treating fans right, has written up an opinion piece where he tries to <a href="http://www.digitalrenaissance.se/2009/05/29/musicians-and-fans-will-continue-to-gain-power/" target="_new">envision the role of the record label in five years</a>.  The opening is certainly right in line with my feelings of optimism for the music industry:
<blockquote><i>
When it comes to the future of music I've always consider myself an optimist.
<br /><br />
For one I'm certain that musicians and music fans have a prosperous future ahead of them. That's because music is the single most important ingredient in the music business soup and music is of course a result of artists' creative minds. And it's when musicians interact with listeners that a window for business is opening. Not before, and not just because some A&#038;R person, marketeer or CEO open their wallet. That the relationship between musicians and fans is the foundation to the business is the single most important piece of knowledge that we all have to submissively recognize. This is the key to the future for the middle men we call record labels â€&ldquo; we have to encourage the interaction and realize that it will live without us.
<br /><br />
We as middle men have to remember that we always need to convince our customers (musicians and fans) why they should engage with us. Music on plastic discs or plain mp3s just ain't enough anymore. Competition is hard and consumers don't take bullshit anymore. If they love something you don't offer, they'll go create it themselves.
</i></blockquote>
The whole thing is worth reading, but the final paragraph makes a really important point that we've <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20071008/162858.shtml">discussed</a> in the past, but which often gets forgotten in trying to understand trendlines and the music business.  It's that storage is growing ever bigger and ever cheaper at an incredibly rapid pace -- and as such it won't be all that long until you can carry every song ever recorded on a device in your pocket:
<blockquote><i>
In five years a hard drive available to ordinary consumers will carry 35 TB of data. Data = music. 35 TB = 2.5 million songs. Watch this development closely. It's easy to get blinded by Spotify, but imagine when file sharing on the street means transferring the entire music history. At least it is a wild card. Anyhow it seems that we will have to work on better ways of charging for music than 1 dollar a song. Don't you think?
</i></blockquote>
Indeed.  When you can carry every song ever... do people really think that $1/song is going to make sense?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090530/2256555068.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090530/2256555068.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090530/2256555068.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>think-it-forward</slash:department>
<wfw:commentRss>http://www.techdirt.com/comment_rss.php?sid=20090530/2256555068</wfw:commentRss>
</item>
<item>
<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 16:42:02 PDT</pubDate>
<title>Rethinking Print In A Technological Era</title>
<dc:creator>Insight Community</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.insightcommunity.com/case.php?iid=1320</link>
<guid>http://www.insightcommunity.com/case.php?iid=1320</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The business of print has always been a risky one.  While the printing press made it much cheaper to print, there were still significant fixed costs involved.  In order to make it economically feasible to print something, you had to make sure there were enough buyers, which involved significant forecasting.  There were also significant costs associated with setting up each print run, such that it wasn't economically reasonable to do really custom work.  Thankfully, in the past few decades advances in various technologies have made it cheaper and cheaper -- even as the rise of the internet has led many to write off the opportunities for print publishing, and even suggest that paper was dying.</p>
<p>Yet, what if that same trends, of ever decreasing technology costs combined with increasing quality and internet connectivity, enable a new era of print?  These trends have the ability to enable things that simply couldn't be done before.  We're seeing the beginnings of this with print-on-demand and self-publishing services, but where does it go from here?  How far will these technology trends take us in creating totally new opportunities for print?  When it's easy and cost effective to not just self-publish, but *micro-publish* suddenly the entire stream of possibilities becomes different.  A photographer can publish a special magazine for every attendee at a wedding (even with the attendee's photo customized to be on the front).  Or a novelist can let fans buy each chapter to be delivered fresh each month (or week!) as she finishes it.  A textbook maker can create a totally customizable textbook, listing out a series of chapters online, allowing professors/teachers/students to create their own combination based on what works best for them.</p>
<p>And those are just a few starter ideas.  HP is sponsoring this conversation (with more info at <a title="futureofprint.com" href="http://futureofprint.com/">futureofprint.com</a>) about how these trends will enable all sorts of new possibilities and business models.  What new opportunities will be enabled thanks to ever cheaper print-on-demand offerings that combine customization, high quality and the connectivity of the internet?  What new businesses may spring out of this convergence?  What new hobbies, side projects, cultural artifacts?  We're looking for creative thinking on where these trends will take us and what they'll enable.</p><p><em><img align="left" src="http://www.techdirt.com/images/ic-bauble.png" alt="ic" /> This is a case from the Insight Community, a powerful new marketplace that connects companies with intelligent communities like Techdirt.  <a href="http://www.insightcommunity.com/">Click here</a> to learn more.</em></p>
<ul>
<li>Earn up to <b>$200</b> for Insights on this case.</li>
<li>Insights Due: <b>27 May 2009, 11:59PMPT</li></p>
</ul>
<p><a href="http://www.insightcommunity.com/case.php?iid=1320">View Case Details at InsightCommunity.com</a></p>
 ]]></description>
<slash:department></slash:department>
<wfw:commentRss>http://www.techdirt.com/comment_rss.php?sid=20090520/163125</wfw:commentRss>
</item>
<item>
<pubDate>Tue, 28 Oct 2008 23:24:07 PDT</pubDate>
<title>Are Teens Listening To More Radio?</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20081027/0214572646.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20081027/0214572646.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ Here's a surprising study.  A survey from a company called Paragon Media Strategies claims that people between the ages of 14 and 24 <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/technology/27drill.html?partner=rssuserland&#038;emc=rss" target="_new">are listening to <i>more radio</i> than they were a year or two ago</a>.  This greatly contradicts the findings of Arbitron, which famously tracks radio listeners.  Paragon suggests that radio stations may be doing a better job connecting with people and that "the music may simply be more interesting."  Of course, all of this might depend on how you define "radio."  I wouldn't be surprised if many folks in that age range are listening to <i>streaming</i> radio online or downloadable podcasts -- that they might consider to <i>be</i> radio.  But that's quite different than actually listening to terrestrial radio.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20081027/0214572646.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20081027/0214572646.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20081027/0214572646.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>might-ask-them-to-define-radio-first</slash:department>
<wfw:commentRss>http://www.techdirt.com/comment_rss.php?sid=20081027/0214572646</wfw:commentRss>
</item>
<item>
<pubDate>Fri, 18 Apr 2008 19:49:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>Things I Was Wrong About</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080418/013552884.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080418/013552884.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ A friend just sent me a great blog post by Kevin Kelly where he talks about <a href="http://kk.org/ct2/2008/04/digital-things-ive-been-wrong.php" target="_new">some online things he was completely wrong about</a> -- including products or companies he thought would flop that succeeded, as well as those he thought would succeed which went nowhere.  He starts with the example of <i>The Sims</i>, which he thought would flop, but which just sold its 100 millionth copy.  In looking through his list he notes:
<blockquote><i>
Sadly I can detect no pattern to my mis-predictions. In some cases, I did not anticipate improvements and advances that would remake a pathetic first version into a truly cool tool. In others I anticipated advances that never came.
</i></blockquote>
It got me thinking about which predictions or trends I totally missed on, and thought it might be fun to post some of them here. In Silicon Valley, people are so focused on the future, they don't look back often enough.  Besides, it's healthy (and a bit cathartic) to review your mistakes every once in a while.  I'll admit that on some of these it took some serious thinking to remember my initial feelings about them, as my opinions have changed.  Anyway, feel free to think through some of your own in the comments.
<ul>
<li> <b>Google</b>.  Now, to be fair, I always thought that Google was a great offering, and I was one of the early adopters and users of the search engine.  What I didn't understand was how the company would make money -- and why Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia would put $25 million into a company that had no revenue and no clear path to revenue.  Given the founders rather vehement claims that advertising on a search engine was bad (and, yes, they were vehement about this early on), I thought the company would struggle to find a business model.  In fact, it did <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20011026/0015244.shtml">struggle</a> for a little while... but once the company figured it out.... </li>
<li> <b>RSS</b>.  While we at Techdirt were a somewhat <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20010427/0120200.shtml">early adopter</a> in providing an RSS feed, I wasn't much of a believer in the technology for a while.  I had been using various "multibrowser" systems that would load up a bunch of websites in a huge long list -- and that seemed like a perfectly efficient system for me to use.  I was on the record saying I thought RSS was <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20030902/0126227.shtml">too confusing</a> for most people -- and I still think it suffers from some of those problems, but it's become tremendously successful -- due, in large part, to the user-friendliness of various RSS readers, starting with Bloglines and moving on to Google Reader and the various customizable home page solutions.</li>
<li> <b>Skype</b>: It launched to a ton of hype and I <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20030902/1228238.shtml">wasn't buying any of it</a>.  There were already a bunch of voicechat products on the market, and there had been for years.  I just didn't see what was all that different about Skype.  To be honest, I'm still not sure what was so different about it -- but it got users, and for the most part "it just worked."  Never underestimate the power of those two things.</li>
<li> <b>The web itself</b>: I first heard about "the world wide web" in early 1994.  I had been using email, usenet and gopher for a while before that.  While I knew that the web was something special, as soon as I first tried out Mosaic in 1994, I didn't think it would become <i>this</i> big of a deal.  In fact, I just assumed that the world would move on to something else after a few years.  After all, after the web came along, gopher pretty much died out, and I assumed that some new offering would come along and make the web obsolete, just as the web did to gopher.</li>
<li> The original <b>Napster</b>: While I actually only played around with Napster briefly (at the time I had no broadband connection), I thought that it would revolutionize the music industry.  In a way, it did, but not the way I expected it to.  I honestly thought that (1) Napster would be found legal and that (2) the recording industry would quickly realize what a useful tool it would be for distribution and promotion of music.  Boy, was I wrong on that one....  Though, to be fair, at the time, there were plenty of others who felt the same way.  It's only in retrospect that people now say that Napster was obviously illegal.</li>
<li><b>Intelligent Agents</b>.  I had done a research project in college about some of the work being done on intelligent computer agents, and I really thought the technology had a lot of promise.  I figured that well before now, there would be virtual assistants everywhere, doing things and making people's lives more efficient.  Turns out the technology never really worked all that well, and at best, most of the early efforts in the space moved on to things like collaborative filtering.</li>
</ul>
Well, that's the quick list I came up with.  Like Kelly, I'm not sure there's a real pattern there, but it doesn't mean I can't learn from my mistakes.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080418/013552884.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080418/013552884.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080418/013552884.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>fun-stuff</slash:department>
<wfw:commentRss>http://www.techdirt.com/comment_rss.php?sid=20080418/013552884</wfw:commentRss>
</item>
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<pubDate>Fri, 7 Sep 2007 17:11:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>40,000 Explanations For Why The Recording Industry Is Wrong About Business Models</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20070905/230107.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20070905/230107.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ Among Apple's new iPod <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20070905/115922.shtml">announcements</a> was the inclusion of a 160Gb iPod Classic.  As Steve Jobs noted, that means you could carry around 40,000 songs in your pocket.  Forty thousand songs.  Leave it to Bob Lefsetz to use this fact to point out <a href="http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/index.php/archives/2007/09/05/160-gig-ipods/">how wrong the recording industry has been about music business models</a>.  He points out that this highlights how people want music -- in fact, they want <i>lots</i> of music -- and they want it conveniently and reasonably priced.  That means at much cheaper prices (are you going to carry around $40,000 worth of music purchases in your pocket?) and without DRM.  
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He also highlights how the idiotic focus on getting more per song just as everything else about music and technology gets cheaper is hurting the record labels much more than it helps them.  He compares the situation to how expensive it was to use mobile phones a dozen years ago.  People were scared to use mobile phones because the charges were ridiculously high.  You only used it in special circumstances.  Today, however, the rates are <i>much, much lower</i> and that's massively grown the market for mobile services.  Do you think the mobile operators would prefer to go back to $1/minute charges?  Yet, why does the recording industry insist on $1/song charges when the infrastructure can support an entirely different model.  Instead, make the music cheap and easily accessible.  Take advantage of the infrastructure that allows people to carry around 40,000 songs in their pocket.  Sell iPods that are pre-loaded with all kinds of music and watch them fly off the shelves.  The record labels (and their supporters) will claim that it doesn't make sense to sell music for less when people are clearly willing to pay $1/song, but that's misunderstanding the market potential.  People were willing to pay $1/minute for mobile phone calls too.  And they were willing to pay $150/month for broadband access.  But as all of those things got much, much cheaper it opened the markets up much wider, provided all sorts of new applications and services that made them more and more valuable -- and helped make the companies much richer by providing better services at cheaper prices.  Why can't the recording industry understand that?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20070905/230107.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20070905/230107.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20070905/230107.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
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