Techdirt. Stories filed under "pessimism"

Techdirt. Stories filed under "pessimism" Easily digestible tech news... http://www.techdirt.com/ en-us Techdirt. Stories filed under "pessimism"http://www.techdirt.com/images/td-88x31.gifhttp://www.techdirt.com/ Thu, 30 Dec 2010 19:39:00 PST New Year's Message: From Pessimism To Optimism... And The Power Of Innovation Mike Masnick http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101230/00394212461/new-years-message-pessimism-to-optimism-power-innovation.shtml http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101230/00394212461/new-years-message-pessimism-to-optimism-power-innovation.shtml
But the part that really struck me, was that immediately following these two meetings, I went to check on Techdirt, and was reading a series of comments about how reading Techdirt each day was making people more and more pessimistic -- what with new, more draconian copyright laws, domain name seizures, free speech violations and the like happening. And the juxtaposition of the two things struck me as odd. Yet, it seems to happen quite frequently. Just a week after those meetings, I was at the Monaco Media Forum, and I thought how nice it was that the opening of the event was entirely focused on optimism and all of the new opportunities that innovation has opened up for the media landscape. Having attended so many entertainment industry/media/policy/etc. events where most of the focus is on "the problems" or "the threats," I found that really refreshing. I mentioned on Twitter how cool it was that the conference was opening on such an optimistic note, rather than the pessimistic openings of other events. And the very first response I got back was: "look who's talking!"

And so, it seems, there's this odd dichotomy, where many people reading the site seem to feel that I'm angry or pessimistic in general, when the truth is quite the opposite (though, apparently, that only becomes clear to some people when they talk to me in person). For my last post of the year for the past two years, I've taken up similar subjects. In 2008, I wrote, On Staying Happy..., about how it was a myth that I was somehow filled with rage and angry about the world. There's so much wonderful going on, and it was excitement about all of that which keeps me happy. Last year, I expanded on that subject, in writing about Creativity, Innovation and Happiness, noting all the amazing achievements and progress made in 2009.

Once again, this year, I feel quite the same way. But I've been thinking a lot about the juxtaposition between those who think I'm extremely optimistic, and those who insist I'm extremely pessimistic -- and I think the best explanation I have goes back to a post I did in April, in which I explained how much I love seeing progress, and if I'm upset about anything, it's only about the roadblocks that get in the way of progress. I talked about the famous Louis CK video "Everything's Amazing & Nobody's Happy" where he discusses all of these amazing technological advances -- mobile phones, internet on airplanes, flying in airplanes itself -- and how people bitch and complain about it when those things don't work. Similarly, in that post, I compared two articles -- one complaining about the state of mobile phones today, and the other pointing out just how amazing it is that we have mobile phones today which are basically amazingly powerful computers in your pocket.

The point I was trying to make was that I definitely see both sides of that argument. I'm amazed every single day by some of the amazing things out there. And yet, at the same time, I'm frustrated by anything that gets in the way of making it even better. So, I'm super optimistic about innovation, and all of the possibilities out there. And I believe, quite strongly, that you cannot stop innovation -- but you absolutely can hinder it. So any "anger" that people feel, which may give them a sense of frustration and pessimism is my frustration about the roadblocks and barriers and hurdles that people throw in the way of this innovation -- either due to a misunderstanding of innovation, or through laziness and an unwillingness to change to take advantage of those new opportunities.

So, don't take the stories on Techdirt of negative things that are happening as reasons to be sad or pessimistic. Just look at them as highlighting the temporary roadblocks to innovation that need to be cleared out of the way. The faster those roadblocks are cleared, the sooner we increase that pace of innovation and there will be even more to be happy, excited and optimistic about. There will always be new roadblocks, but innovation cannot and will not be stopped.

Yes, it's frustrating to see roadblocks, corruption, monopolies and other efforts designed to hinder such innovation. It's frustrating because we know they're not necessary, and serve only to slow our own opportunities to experience great innovations. But, remain optimistic that as those roadblocks are cleared away, there will continue to be so much more that's wonderful to be optimistic about. Once again, a huge thank you to everyone who makes up the Techdirt community. While there may have been frustrating stories along the way, look at how far we've come. It's been a great year for the community as well, as it's grown significantly in the last twelve months, with many wonderful and thoughtful new participants that have made the experience of managing this site that much more exciting and fun. In the past year, I also believe we've had many more insightful and enlightening discussions, which I look forward to continuing in the new year. We've also got some goodies that we've been working on which will be coming during the year, so stay tuned...

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]]> love-the-possibilities,-upset-at-the-roadblocks http://www.techdirt.com/comment_rss.php?sid=20101230/00394212461 Tue, 7 Oct 2008 18:47:44 PDT Dueling Headlines On The Online Ad Market: Half-Full Or Half-Empty Mike Masnick http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20081007/1549232482.shtml http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20081007/1549232482.shtml

The most accurate may be from the AFP, who notes: Internet advertising revenue up but slowing, and the LA Times: Internet advertising grows slightly, but analysts worry about the future. Basically, the numbers are still up but at a slower pace than in the past. How you interpret that, apparently, depends on whether you're fundamentally an optimist or a pessimist. It seems pretty clear that there's still plenty of money heading into the online advertising world -- and it was going to plateau at some point. You can't keep up ridiculous growth levels at all times, especially when the broader economy runs into trouble. Plus, the fact that a healthy percentage of online advertising was tied to the mortgage/loan/financial services industry -- you'd have to expect some slowing of growth. No matter what you believe the future holds for the online ad market, you have to admit the juxtaposition of headlines is rather amusing.

Perhaps much more interesting, however, is this analysis of what happened to the advertising market during the Great Depression. It found that while some companies shied away from advertising, the ones that did well focused in on more effective advertising, which worked wonders. So the advertising market itself didn't collapse, it just got more focused, and those who used it wisely ended up doing quite well.

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]]> depends-on-who-you-read http://www.techdirt.com/comment_rss.php?sid=20081007/1549232482 Tue, 9 Sep 2008 21:37:00 PDT It's Not Internet Pessimists vs. Internet Optimists; It's Simply Reality Mike Masnick http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080908/0331032201.shtml http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080908/0331032201.shtml internet optimists and internet pessimists. I'm somewhat surprised to be included among the optimists for a few reasons -- not the least of which is that I'm surprised to see my name included with a lot of folks who are a lot more prestigious. I don't belong in such a group.

That said, I'm a bit torn about the overall chart. I am optimistic about what new technologies and innovation allow, but I hardly think of myself as an idealist -- and tend to agree with Adam that things like wikis don't solve everything, and that we haven't reached a post-capitalist world where traditional means of production are passe. However, perhaps I'm misreading some of the other "optimists" on the list, but I don't think anyone really believes that either. As I've pointed out in the past, none of what we talk about here is about any fundamental change or shift in economics. It's the same old economics that has applied for ages. It's just trying to explain how changes in technology impact those economics.

So, I agree that it's silly to think that peer production completely replaces professional production means, but that's another extreme scenario that I don't think very many are actually pitching. Instead, the point that they're making is that peer production models will also enter the market, meaning that traditional business models will face some competition. It doesn't mean that one wins out entirely over the other, just that it may force some models of production to adjust to the reality of the market. I don't necessarily think that's an optimistic viewpoint -- it's just a realistic explanation of what's happening. While some pessimists may not like it, they're basically just whining for a different world that doesn't exist any more, and don't like the fact that they can't continue to live in that world.

I also disagree that the "optimists" don't believe in property rights, as Thierer implies. I'm a huge believer in property rights. My point is simply that "property" needs to be applied properly -- meaning not to infinite goods, where it doesn't make much sense. So while I can see where Adam is going with this chart, I'm not sure the characterizations really fit.

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