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<title>Techdirt. Stories filed under &quot;lottery&quot;</title>
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<image><title>Techdirt. Stories filed under &quot;lottery&quot;</title><url>http://www.techdirt.com/images/td-88x31.gif</url><link>http://www.techdirt.com/</link></image>
<item>
<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2012 17:00:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>DailyDirt: Taxes On The Mathematically Challenged</title>
<dc:creator>Michael Ho</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100408/1323598942/dailydirt-taxes-mathematically-challenged.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100408/1323598942/dailydirt-taxes-mathematically-challenged.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ Every so often, a lottery jackpot reaches such an insane amount that everyone starts to wonder if it's worthwhile to thrown down a couple bucks on a ticket. If you haven't heard yet, it's that time again, and the Mega Millions multi-state lottery drawing could hand a lucky winner over half a billion dollars. Here are just a few reality checks if you're thinking about playing.

<ul>
<li> <a title="http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/lottery-math-101-801/" href="http://on.wsj.com/HtsOHP">There are some interesting coincidences in the history of lottery drawings. For example, in one Bulgaria lottery, the same numbers were chosen twice in the same week.</a> Lightning actually does strike twice... [<a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/lottery-math-101-801/">url</a>]</li>

<li> <a title="http://www.slate.com/articles/life/do_the_math/2001/08/is_powerball_a_mugs_game.single.html" href="http://slate.me/HnA60m">If you want to see some math on expected values of lottery tickets and what the odds are for someone to win a given lottery, check out this advice from a mathematician.</a> "<i>If you play Powerball every day, stop playing Powerball every day.</i>" [<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/life/do_the_math/2001/08/is_powerball_a_mugs_game.single.html">url</a>]</li>

<li> <a title="http://sbronars.wordpress.com/2012/03/28/why-a-mega-millions-ticket-is-a-good-bet/" href="http://bit.ly/H4vyYq">It's likely that there will be multiple winners (2.5 according to the math), but even so, the expected value of a Mega Millions ticket is greater than the cost of the ticket ($1.23).</a> Still, the probability of zero winners is about 10%. [<a href="http://sbronars.wordpress.com/2012/03/28/why-a-mega-millions-ticket-is-a-good-bet/">url</a>]</li>

<li><b>To discover more stuff related to economics, <a title="http://www.stumbleupon.com/to/stumble/topic:137" href="http://bit.ly/mPvUHR">check out what's currently floating around the StumbleUpon universe.</a></b> [<a href="http://www.stumbleupon.com/to/stumble/topic:137">url</a>]  <a title="what's this?" href="#" class="whatsthis help_ddstumble">&nbsp;</a>
</li>
</ul> 

As always, StumbleUpon can also recommend some good <a title="http://www.stumbleupon.com/to/stumble/stumblethru:www.techdirt.com" href="http://bit.ly/fagV8c">Techdirt</a> articles, too.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100408/1323598942/dailydirt-taxes-mathematically-challenged.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100408/1323598942/dailydirt-taxes-mathematically-challenged.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100408/1323598942/dailydirt-taxes-mathematically-challenged.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
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<slash:department>urls-we-dig-up</slash:department>
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<item>
<pubDate>Mon, 8 Aug 2011 17:00:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>DailyDirt: Beating The System...</title>
<dc:creator>Michael Ho</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110712/15310915071/dailydirt-beating-system.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110712/15310915071/dailydirt-beating-system.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ Who doesn't like a great deal? Every once in a while, a deal that sounds too good to be true, actually pans out. Using bureaucracies to your advantage can be profitable (or just enjoyably satisfying for the vengeful). Here are just a few schemes that folks have (almost) gotten away with.
<ul>
<li> <a title="http://www.khou.com/home/Stranger-moves-into-foreclosed-home-citing-little-knownTexas-law.html" href="http://bit.ly/mVF2Il">Adverse Possession is an uncommonly-used section of the legal code -- that's allowed a Texas man to claim ownership of a foreclosed house for just a $16 filing fee.</a> This guy has called "Finder's Keepers!" and needs to squat for 3 years -- unless the HOA figures out a way to evict him. [<a href="http://www.khou.com/home/Stranger-moves-into-foreclosed-home-citing-little-knownTexas-law.html">url</a>]</li>
<li> <a title="http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2011/07/31/a_lottery_game_with_a_windfall_for_a_knowing_few/?page=full" href="http://bo.st/mUO2LU">The Massachusetts State Lottery has an interesting game called Cash WinFall -- which is exactly that for a few statisticians.</a> Statisticians who can buy over $100,000 in lottery tickets, that is. [<a href="http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2011/07/31/a_lottery_game_with_a_windfall_for_a_knowing_few/?page=full">url</a>]</li>
<li> <a title="http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/07/22/138610663/dollar-coin-loophole-closes-for-frequent-fliers" href="http://n.pr/o9SbcK">Some people collect pudding (we're looking at you, David Phillips). Others buy dollar coins.</a> Either way, the loopholes that let these people rack up frequent flier mileage are closing. [<a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/07/22/138610663/dollar-coin-loophole-closes-for-frequent-fliers">url</a>]</li>
<li> <a title="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/26/nyregion/a-revenge-plot-so-intricate-the-prosecutors-were-pawns.html?pagewanted=all" href="http://nyti.ms/qxEwN6">Apparently, watching too many cop dramas can give you some interesting ideas for revenge.</a> Justice is also a bit <i>too</i> blind, at times. [<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/26/nyregion/a-revenge-plot-so-intricate-the-prosecutors-were-pawns.html?pagewanted=all">url</a>]</li>
<li><b>To find some more bizarre/crazy stuff, <a title="http://www.stumbleupon.com/to/stumble/topic:426" href="http://bit.ly/rghIeN">check out some things that other StumbleUpon users have found.</a></b> [<a href="http://www.stumbleupon.com/to/stumble/topic:426">url</a>]  <a title="what's this?" href="#" class="whatsthis help_ddstumble">&nbsp;</a>
</li>
</ul> 

By the way, StumbleUpon can also recommend some good <a title="http://www.stumbleupon.com/to/stumble/stumblethru:www.techdirt.com" href="http://bit.ly/fagV8c">Techdirt</a> articles, too.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110712/15310915071/dailydirt-beating-system.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110712/15310915071/dailydirt-beating-system.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110712/15310915071/dailydirt-beating-system.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
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<slash:department>urls-we-dig-up</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Thu, 3 Feb 2011 07:00:05 PST</pubDate>
<title>Reverse Engineering Lottery Scratch Tickets For Profit (But Not Fame)</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110202/01553412919/reverse-engineering-lottery-scratch-tickets-profit-not-fame.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110202/01553412919/reverse-engineering-lottery-scratch-tickets-profit-not-fame.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ Jonah Lehrer has a fantastically entertaining article in Wired about <a href="http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1" target="_blank">cracking scratch card lottery tickets</a>.  It kicks off with a story about Mohan Srivastava, a statistician in Toronto who quickly realized that the scratch tickets couldn't actually be random, even if they try to give off that impression.  Since the lotteries want to control how often people win, the numbers have be chosen by a careful algorithm -- and if that's the case, there's almost always ways to reverse engineer the algorithm.  With the first game he tried it on, Srivastava was able to increase his odds to the point that he could pick a "winning" card 90% of the time.  He ended up alerting the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation -- though, he admits that he did so not for moral reasons, but because he quickly calculated that he probably wouldn't make that much money just by gaming the system:
<blockquote><i>
His next thought was utterly predictable: "I remember thinking, I'm gonna be rich! I'm gonna plunder the lottery!" he says. However, these grandiose dreams soon gave way to more practical concerns. "Once I worked out how much money I could make if this was my full-time job, I got a lot less excited," Srivastava says. "I'd have to travel from store to store and spend 45 seconds cracking each card. I estimated that I could expect to make about $600 a day. That's not bad. But to be honest, I make more as a consultant, and I find consulting to be a lot more interesting than scratch lottery tickets."
<br /><br />
Instead of secretly plundering the game, he decided to go to the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation. Srivastava thought its top officials might want to know about his discovery. Who knows, maybe they'd even hire him to give them statistical advice. "People often assume that I must be some extremely moral person because I didn't take advantage of the lottery," he says. "I can assure you that that's not the case. I'd simply done the math and concluded that beating the game wasn't worth my time."
</i></blockquote>
At first the Ontario Lottery ignored him.  Apparently, lots of crackpots claim to have beaten the lottery, but haven't.  So, instead, he sent a guy on the Ontario Lottery security team a package of unscratched cards, and sorted them into piles he thought were winners and losers.  Apparently, he was pretty accurate, because they called him quickly after that and then pulled the game.
<br /><br />
Of course, as often happens in these situations, the Lottery insisted that this was just a one-off error, and the rest of their games were secure.  Srivastava correctly noted that was unlikely, as the chances that the ticket he'd randomly been given was the only one with a flaw seemed remote.  And, even if he didn't think it was worth <i>his</i> time to game the system, that's not true for others.  In fact, Srivastava notes that there are ways to profitably game the system:
<blockquote><i>
I then ask Srivastava how a criminal organization might plunder the lottery. He lays out a surprisingly practical plan for what he would do: "At first glance, the whole problem with plundering is one of scale," he says. "I probably couldn't sort enough tickets while standing at the counter of the mini-mart. So I'd probably want to invent some sort of scanning device that could quickly sort the tickets for me." Of course, Srivastava might look a little suspicious if he started bringing a scanner and his laptop into corner stores. But that may not be an insurmountable problem. "Lots of people buy lottery tickets in bulk to give away as prizes for contests," he says. He asked several Toronto retailers if they would object to him buying tickets and then exchanging the unused, unscratched tickets. "Everybody said that would be totally fine. Nobody was even a tiny bit suspicious," he says. "Why not? Because they all assumed the games are unbreakable. So what I would try to do is buy up lots of tickets, run them through my scanning machine, and then try to return the unscratched losers. Of course, you could also just find a retailer willing to cooperate or take a bribe. That might be easier." The scam would involve getting access to opened but unsold books of tickets. A potential plunderer would need to sort through these tickets and selectively pick the winners. The losers would be sold to unwitting customers--or returned to the lottery after the game was taken off the market.
</i></blockquote>
Lehrer then goes on to point out that there is statistical evidence that, at the very least, suggests that some gaming of the system has been done in various places.
<blockquote><i>
Consider a series of reports  by the Massachusetts state auditor. The reports describe a long list of troubling findings, such as the fact that one person cashed in 1,588 winning tickets between 2002 and 2004 for a grand total of $2.84 million. (The report does not provide the name of the lucky winner.) A 1999 audit found that another person cashed in 149 tickets worth $237,000, while the top 10 multiple-prize winners had won 842 times for a total of $1.8 million. Since only six out of every 100,000 tickets yield a prize between $1,000 and $5,000, the auditor dryly observed that these "fortunate" players would have needed to buy "hundreds of thousands to millions of tickets." (The report also noted that the auditor's team found that full and partial ticket books were being abandoned at lottery headquarters in plastic bags.)
</i></blockquote>
Then there's the example of a woman in Texas, Joan Ginther, who has apparently won more than $1 million from the Texas lottery <i>four separate times</i>.  There are also some indications that organized crime groups have regularly used such lottery tickets as a way to launder money -- and if they can crack the code, that makes the laundering process a lot more profitable.
<br /><br />
Finally, the article notes that the Lottery industry around the world seems to more or less be in denial about the whole thing, frequently insisting that the new games are perfectly secure, and not even being all that aware of previous cracks and problems.  The whole thing is well worth reading.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110202/01553412919/reverse-engineering-lottery-scratch-tickets-profit-not-fame.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110202/01553412919/reverse-engineering-lottery-scratch-tickets-profit-not-fame.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110202/01553412919/reverse-engineering-lottery-scratch-tickets-profit-not-fame.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>scratch-and-sniff</slash:department>
<wfw:commentRss>http://www.techdirt.com/comment_rss.php?sid=20110202/01553412919</wfw:commentRss>
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<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jun 2010 18:34:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>Instead Of Bad Drivers, What If Speed Cameras 'Caught' Good Drivers Instead?</title>
<dc:creator>Dennis Yang</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100617/1144579869.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100617/1144579869.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ We've written at length here about the <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100524/0056329545.shtml">multitude</a> of <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100121/0946107858.shtml">problems</a> with speed cameras.  What if, instead of focusing on punishing speeders, the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcaKocRXCB4">speed cameras were used to reward good behavior</a>?   Drivers who obey the speed limit are automatically entered into a lottery and then notified by mail if they've won.  So, you might pick up your mail one day with a letter from local law enforcement and a check for good driving behavior, rather than a fine for bad driving behavior.   This is somewhat reminiscent of the idea from a few years ago where police would <a href="http://cbs4denver.com/watercooler/safe.drivers.sacramento.2.612778.html" target="_blank">pull over good drivers</a> and "reward" them with free coffee coupons -- but avoids the whole "pull over" part, which certainly upset some drivers.
<br />
<center><object width="560" height="340"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/KcaKocRXCB4&#038;hl=en_US&#038;fs=1&#038;"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/KcaKocRXCB4&#038;hl=en_US&#038;fs=1&#038;" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="560" height="340"></embed></object></center>
<br />
The idea is that the jackpot could come from the fines that were paid from speeders -- so not only do you get rewarded, you get rewarded from the pockets of worse drivers.  This method may <i>also</i> serve to make a speeding ticket feel even more painful than just a fine alone.  After all, a $500 ticket definitely stings, but a $500 ticket PLUS a little note that had you not been speeding, you could have won $10,000 instead?  Ouch, that hurts a lot more.
<br /><br />
The idea was the winning entry to VW's "<a href="http://www.thefuntheory.com/">The Fun Theory</a>" competition, where applicants were tasked to design ways to change people's behavior through fun.  This is a brilliantly viral campaign that showcases the fact that <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080318/004136567.shtml">advertising is content</a>, and if you make engaging content, people will beat a path to your door to watch it.  The "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lXh2n0aPyw">piano stairs</a>" entry alone has amassed over 12 million views.
<br /><br />
Of course, rewarding good drivers with cash awards does not help governments rake in quite as much in revenue, but speed cameras are supposed to be about safety and not money, right?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100617/1144579869.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100617/1144579869.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100617/1144579869.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>carrot-or-the-stick</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 15:25:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>Can The Lottery Make People Save More?</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090719/0140115590.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090719/0140115590.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ The lottery has often been described as a "tax on those who don't understand probability."  However, it seems some enterprising folks are trying to use that basic fact to help people who have trouble saving money (who often overlap with the folks who don't understand probability) to save more.  Apparently some credit unions in Michigan are experimenting with <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124786612839159989.html" target="_new">a lottery feature as a part of a savings account</a>:
<blockquote><i>
Psychologists have long known that people tend to overestimate the odds of rare events. Applying that behavioral insight, finance professor Peter Tufano of Harvard Business School has devised a clever program called "Save to Win." Launched earlier this year for members of eight credit unions in Michigan, it is a cross between a certificate of deposit and a raffle ticket. Members who put $25 or more into a Save to Win one-year CD are entered into a monthly "savings raffle" for prizes up to $400, plus one annual drawing for a $100,000 jackpot.
</i></blockquote>
Apparently, this program has attracted $3.1 million in new deposits, many (the article claims) from people who have never been able to save much money.  In many ways it is like buying a lottery ticket, except that you don't lose the money paid for the ticket.  The credit unions make this work by paying out a slightly lower interest rate on the CD in question, but the net effect works out to benefit everyone.  Many who put their money into such an account would never have put their money into a higher rate CD in the first place.  In some ways, it's a neat example of efficient price discrimination that expands an overall market.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090719/0140115590.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090719/0140115590.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090719/0140115590.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>tax-on-the-poor</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Mon, 25 Aug 2008 11:11:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>If You Had The 'Secret' To Winning The Lottery, Would You Patent It?</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080824/1645362076.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080824/1645362076.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ Okay, so this story is bizarre enough by itself, but there's an odd twist at the end.  A husband and wife <a href="http://www.wnbc.com/money/17263616/detail.html" target="_new">who held four separate winning lottery tickets claims to have figured out a secret formula for winning the lottery</a>.  That seems highly unlikely, of course.  There is no formula that can predict totally independent numbers.  The four winning tickets all used the same numbers, so there's no proof that the couple did anything other than get lucky by having the same number they played four different times hit.
<br /><br />
However, their lawyer is claiming that the couple is "exploring patent protection."  Want to see a sign of how ridiculous the patent situation has become?  If you had figured out the (non-existent) secret to winning the lottery, would you use it to (a) keep winning the lottery or (b) patent it?  It's only in these bizarre times that a couple would even think that (b) would be the more profitable option.  Of course, if there really were some secret to predicting independent numbers that the couple had figured out, wouldn't you think that any lottery commission would immediately change how their lottery worked the second that patent was published?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080824/1645362076.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080824/1645362076.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080824/1645362076.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>economically-challenging-questions</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 02:45:13 PDT</pubDate>
<title>Would A Skill Ranking, Rather Than A Lottery, Solve The H-1B Visa Problem?</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080422/013643912.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080422/013643912.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ With the applications for H-1B visas immediately <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080408/193137791.shtml">outstripping</a> the Congressionally mandated supply, the "winners" will be chosen by a random lottery that is supposed to be "fair."  But, as some are pointing out, that doesn't really make sense for H-1Bs.  The whole program was designed to bring in the most skilled workers and get them to work for American companies, contributing to our economy.  So, <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/print/technology/content/apr2008/tc20080421_944778.htm" target="_new">why not create a system that lets them in based on skill level</a>?  That's the question asked by a rather balanced Business Week piece, which also notes that recent research has shown "skilled immigrants boost the economy and create jobs."
<br /><br />
While ranking people based on skill certainly is better than a pure random lottery, it still has its problems.  Figuring out who's higher skilled is tricky -- and the suggestions on the table will favor large companies over small and may give too much weight to mediocre candidates who graduate from top schools over top candidates who graduate from mediocre schools.  In the end, as even the author notes, the real issue shouldn't be focused on the details of the H-1B program, but on figuring out ways to get more skilled immigrants into the US, helping to build out the economy and create more jobs.  That certainly could involve overhauling the H-1B program -- which clearly has far too many abuses -- but it shouldn't involve keeping foreign skilled workers out of the country.  That's a recipe for disaster, that will <i>shrink</i> the job market, by having some of the best workers competing <i>against</i> American firms, rather than working for American firms.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080422/013643912.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080422/013643912.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080422/013643912.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>only-a-little-bit</slash:department>
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