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<title>Techdirt. Stories filed under &quot;extrapolation&quot;</title>
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<image><title>Techdirt. Stories filed under &quot;extrapolation&quot;</title><url>http://www.techdirt.com/images/td-88x31.gif</url><link>http://www.techdirt.com/</link></image>
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<pubDate>Thu, 21 Apr 2011 08:40:07 PDT</pubDate>
<title>New RIAA Evidence Comes To Light: Napster Killed Kerosene Too!</title>
<dc:creator>Tim Cushing</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110411/16551713858/new-riaa-evidence-comes-to-light-is-there-nothing-file-sharing-cant-destroy.shtml</link>
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<description><![CDATA[ <p>The RIAA has <a href="http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/how-recording-industry-intends-win-175739" target="_blank">stepped up its game in the final stages of its lawsuit against Limewire</a>, where the focus is on determining damages.  As part of this, it has cranked out an illuminating chart showing that the decline of the music business rests entirely on file sharing. Nowhere among the multi-colored lines will you find any references to an aging record-buying demographic, the proliferation of thousands of independent labels or even the ultimate game-changer itself, the internet. </p>  <p>As you well know, the internet was invented in 1991 by billionaire tycoon, Al Gore. In its infancy, the internet was nothing more than a forum for conspiracy theorists to exchange anti-government writings and ASCII porn. However, everything changed in 1998 with the simultaneous debut of Napster and the mp3, both invented by Shawn Fanning. With this new &quot;distribution system,&quot; the music industry could no longer afford to ignore the looming force of the internet, at least not for more than the next half-decade. Now, with billions at stake, the RIAA has unleashed its ultimate weapon: the line chart. Below is their devastating &quot;Exhibit A:&quot; filed in the lawsuit against Limewire:</p>  <p><img src="http://i.imgur.com/fjQ22.gif" alt="" width="560" /> </p>  <p>Broken down bizarrely into &quot;Albums per Capita,&quot; the RIAA's chart takes care to point out two things:<br /><br />1. Napster.<br />2. All else being equal, record sales will grow indefinitely.<br /><br />But that's not all. The number crunchers over at the RIAA have also entered the following charts as eye-catching evidence of the havoc wreaked by file sharing.&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Exhibit B: Napster vs. Kerosene Sales</strong></p><p><img src="http://i.imgur.com/btMmd.png" alt="" width="560" /> </p><p>Kerosene usage dropped off considerably before the 1990's, but was still growing slowly for most of the decade. As this previously unpublished RIAA chart clearly shows, 1999 (1 P.N.*) was kerosene's peak, which was then followed by a decade-long slide. Consulting economists from George Mason University have stated that Napster's arrival &quot;didn't have a goddamn thing to do with kerosene's decline.&quot; This testimony has been stricken from the record as &quot;irrelevant,&quot; as no economist consulted was a former employee of the major labels. Conclusion: the world would be a better (if slightly more odorous) place if Napster had never existed.</p><p><em>*Post-Napster </em></p><p><img src="http://i.imgur.com/Z78tk.png" alt="" width="560" /></p><p><strong>Exhibit C: The Internet vs. Vehicle Theft</strong></p>  <p>With this chart, obviously the RIAA intends to show a clear correlation between the internet's introduction and the decline of vehicular theft, an unfortunate situation that has put many honest car thieves out of work. It is also hoping to prove the old adage that &quot;illegal downloading is exactly like stealing a car -- which is why car theft declined as file sharing increased.&quot; </p><p>As the data shows, vehicle theft followed the music industry's decade-long climb from 1986-1996. Or tried to, anyway. Vehicle theft peaked in 1991 at an unsustainable level of .0066 vehicles stolen per capita. Unfortunately, the web turned these hard-working car thieves into lazy music thieves, thwarting a vehicular theft pattern that should have risen to epidemic levels over the next decade. The data points to one damning fact: you can do more financial damage with a single internet connection than has been done in the entirety of human history up to 1998.</p><p><img src="http://i.imgur.com/PdKsb.png" alt="" width="560" /></p><p><strong>Exhibit D: The RIAA and the Honest American Farmer </strong></p><p>As everyone knows, <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110407/06461813815/mpaa-real-patriots-dont-share.shtml" target="_blank">Real Americans Don't Share&trade;</a>. And nothing is more American than farming, one of the first victims of the internet's cruel efficiency. The American farm has been on a decline since well before records were kept (ca. 1992, apparently), and the arrival of file sharing decimated both of the U.S.A.'s prime cash crops: compact discs and <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101102/10471511689/blaming-popcorn-for-hollywood-s-troubles.shtml" target="_blank">popcorn</a>.</p><p>The fate of these declining industries are apparently forever intertwined, much like the essentially meaningless overlaid chart above. Both lines run downhill in an indictment of, well, everything un-American. In fact, if you look closely enough, you can see the two graph points bravely embracing each other as they weather the onslaught of progress. </p><p>And there you have it: incontrovertible proof that copyright infringement is killing American institutions one download at a time. </p><br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110411/16551713858/new-riaa-evidence-comes-to-light-is-there-nothing-file-sharing-cant-destroy.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110411/16551713858/new-riaa-evidence-comes-to-light-is-there-nothing-file-sharing-cant-destroy.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110411/16551713858/new-riaa-evidence-comes-to-light-is-there-nothing-file-sharing-cant-destroy.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
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<slash:department>i-can-math-like-the-music-industry</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Tue, 8 Sep 2009 11:01:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>How The UK Gov't Extrapolated 136 Self-Reported File Sharers Into 7 Million</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090904/1819236116.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090904/1819236116.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ A year ago, Julian Sanchez took the time to dig into the numbers that the US gov't was using to explain the "cost" of "piracy" on the economy and found that <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20081007/2155422486.shtml">they were completely bogus</a>, based on an offhand mention decades ago, based on no research, and then twisted, pumped up and given a government "seal of approval."  It looks like something similar has happened in the UK.  <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/article.php?sid=20090904/0253006102#c59">Joseph Young</a> points out to an investigation into the UK's oft-repeated number of 7 million illegal file sharers as being the reason for kicking people off the internet.  But a dive into the details <a href="http://www.pcpro.co.uk/news/351331/how-uk-government-spun-136-people-into-7m-illegal-file-sharers" target="_new">finds a massive extrapolation</a>.  That 7 million number is based on 136 people responding to a survey paid for by music industry lobbying group BPI, and conducted by Jupiter Research (now owned by Forrester).  Not surprisingly, the research director who ran that study was also a guy who has claimed in the past that <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20081118/1647262872.shtml">music can't be free</a> and that without copyright there's no way for musicians to get paid.
<br /><br />
Think those survey questions were unbiased?
<br /><br />
Either way, the survey reached 1,176 net-connected households, of which 136 (11.6%) said they did file sharing.  The researchers then just decided that 11.6% was too low, and bumped it up to 16.3%.  Why?  "To reflect the assumption that fewer people admit to file sharing than actually do it."  Fine.  But how was the number picked?  They won't say.  So... you've basically added 40% to the number there for totally unclear reasons.  Then... the extrapolation gets more ridiculous.  Jupiter Research said that there were 40 million people online in the UK, and they applied their made up 16.3% number to that number.  Only problem?  The 40 million number is made up to.  The real number was 33.9 million.  Thus, their "estimate" was first boosted by about 40% and then another 20%.  And all that on top of likely leading questions to appease the music industry lobbyists paying for the study.  And this is what the UK gov't is basing its decisions on?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090904/1819236116.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090904/1819236116.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090904/1819236116.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
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<slash:department>nice-work</slash:department>
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