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<title>Techdirt. Stories filed under &quot;causation&quot;</title>
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<image><title>Techdirt. Stories filed under &quot;causation&quot;</title><url>http://www.techdirt.com/images/td-88x31.gif</url><link>http://www.techdirt.com/</link></image>
<item>
<pubDate>Tue, 16 Apr 2013 08:03:11 PDT</pubDate>
<title>EFF On IsoHunt: Bad Facts Make Bad Law</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130415/17080722714/eff-isohunt-bad-facts-make-bad-law.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130415/17080722714/eff-isohunt-bad-facts-make-bad-law.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ As Gary Fung is seeking a rehearing of the <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130321/12104822407/isohunt-still-guilty-contributory-infringement.shtml">IsoHunt case</a> in the 9th Circuit, two amicus briefs were filed yesterday.  The first from <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/684467-eff-amicus-brief-in-isohunt.html" target="_blank">the EFF</a> and the second <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/684466-google-amicus-brief-in-isohunt.html" target="_blank">from Google</a>.  Neither brief suggests that Fung should get off as innocent, or that he did nothing wrong.  Rather, both are worried about how the broad ruling by the court for the specific situation regarding Fung and IsoHunt will lead to further abuse by copyright holders and massive chilling effects on service providers.  The EFF notes that while Fung/IsoHunt may have been bad actors, it appears that the court used this to go way overboard in creating new and dangerous standards for copyright.
<blockquote><i>
This Panel Opinion is a classic case of bad facts making bad law. Amicus Electronic Frontier Foundation does not file this brief to dispute the Court's factual conclusions regarding the conduct at issue in this case. However, the Panel Opinion went far beyond what was necessary to address that conduct. As a result, it has created new legal uncertainty for online service providers and their customers, undermining over a decade of legislation and jurisprudence designed to help reduce that uncertainty. A predictable legal environment has proven to be crucial not only the growth of the Internet generally, but the growth of innovative platforms for free expression, in particular. This case should not provide a vehicle to impede that development.
</i></blockquote>
In particular, they're quite (reasonably) worried at the court's broad interpretation of causation here, in which the court suggests that the most minor example of inducement can lead to liability for all infringement, even if the site had nothing to do with it.
<blockquote><i>
Most important, the Panel Opinion adopts a "loose causation theory" that disconnects the scope of inducement liability from the defendants' acts&#8212;raising the troubling possibility that a single inducing act (such as a message to one customer) could open the floodgates to liability for third-party infringement entirely unrelated to that act. The Opinion's loose causation theory conflicts with fundamental common law principles of proximate cause essential to both predictability and fairness. The Panel's decision to depart from those principles was apparently based on the unfounded assumption that the Supreme Court's decision in Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Studios Inc. v. Grokster, Ltd., 545 U.S. 913
(2005) requires it. Not so. First, Grokster expressly recognized that secondary liability under copyright derives from common law principles. Second, given that Grokster's specific inducement standard was imported from patent law, it is more likely that the Court also intended to import the analytical framework patent law applies where, as here, a service is capable of both infringing and non-infringing uses. 
</i></blockquote>
Meanwhile, Google's focus is on the question of "financial benefit directly attributable" from infringing activities.  The DMCA, of course, includes that as one of the prongs for testing whether or not a site gets safe harbor protections.  Most courts have found that indirect profits don't make you lose safe harbors: i.e., if you're just making money on ads from a page that has infringing content, that's not "directly attributable".  Most people recognize that for it to be "directly attributable" then it needs to be something like actually selling the infringing content, and the direct profits from that action need to be shown.  Instead, copyright maximalists have tried to argue that if you have infringement on a site <i>and</i> some money is made (i.e., there are ads or affiliate links) then, that violates that prong of the test and you lose your safe harbors.  Most courts have realized that's crazy.  But the Fung ruling went very close to the maximalist view, and that (quite reasonably) has Google concerned.  Specifically, it's concerned that the ruling could be read to mean that any "influence" a site has over content means it's liable for all of the content on the site:
<blockquote><i>
There is a danger that this passage could be misconstrued to stand for a broader proposition that we do not believe the panel intended: that any time an online service provider is found to have exercised "substantial influence" over any user-submitted content on its service&#8212;no matter what that finding was based on&#8212;it thereby loses its DMCA safe harbor protections for all user-submitted content on the entire service. This is how some copyright plaintiffs have already tried to read the panel's ruling. In a recent submission to the Southern District of New York in the Viacom v. YouTube case, for example, the plaintiffs have asserted, citing the panel opinion, that this Court &#8220;made clear that where DMCA eligibility is unavailable due to the right and ability to control prong of the safe harbor, the DMCA defense is broadly lost as to all clips in suit.&#8221; Ltr. from Paul M. Smith to Hon. Louis L. Stanton at 2 (March 22, 2013) (attached as Ex. 1).
</i></blockquote>
As Google right notes, this would lead to "absurd results."
<blockquote><i>
Imagine, for example, a video-hosting service that was otherwise eligible for the section 512(c) safe harbor, but that on one occasion commissioned a particular user to upload a video that, unbeknownst to the service, turned out to be infringing. A court might conclude that the service exerted a &#8220;substantial influence&#8221; over that instance of infringement and, if the service earned a direct financial benefit from it, there would be grounds for denying the safe harbor for a claim based on that video. But it would make no sense to thereby disqualify the service provider from DMCA protection across the board&#8212;even for countless other videos whose posting it did not control or from which it earned no benefit.
<br /><br />
Likewise, consider a search engine eligible for protection under the section 512(d) safe harbor for linking to infringing material online. If one of the millions of links provided by the search engine pointed users to infringing material that had been authored by the search engine itself and that users were charged to view, a finding of control plus financial benefit might be warranted for that particular link.

But, again, there would be no plausible basis for categorically depriving the service of the safe harbor for the millions of unrelated links it delivers to material that it does not control or financially benefit from.
</i></blockquote>
But, of course, that's crazy (even if it's exactly what many maximalists actually do seem to want).  Hopefully, the court is willing to revisit these issues and recognize that its original ruling went overboard because of the situations in this case, and that could unfairly mess up other legitimate offerings.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130415/17080722714/eff-isohunt-bad-facts-make-bad-law.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130415/17080722714/eff-isohunt-bad-facts-make-bad-law.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130415/17080722714/eff-isohunt-bad-facts-make-bad-law.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>don't-get-distracted</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Wed, 13 Feb 2013 15:44:34 PST</pubDate>
<title>Bad Economics: Confusing Correlation And Causation When It Comes To Patents And Innovation</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20130201/16463921862/bad-economics-confusing-correlation-causation-when-it-comes-to-patents-innovation.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20130201/16463921862/bad-economics-confusing-correlation-causation-when-it-comes-to-patents-innovation.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ This is unfortunate.  Despite plenty of research showing that patents do not, in fact, <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090824/1430475981.shtml">lead to increased innovation</a> (but rather increased <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101015/02035211440/patents-create-incentives-for-more-patents-not-innovation.shtml">patenting</a>), many still assume that there's a direct linkage.  Of course, it <i>is</i> true that many successful industries see high rates of patents, but there is evidence that patents tend to <i>lag</i> the actual innovation, rather than predate it.  That is, once an area or industry is innovative and successful <i>then</i> everyone rushes in to get patents and try to extract their piece of the pie, often slowing down the pace of innovation.
<br /><br />
So it's fairly disappointing that the Brookings Institution, which normally does pretty good work on these kinds of things has put out a study about patents and innovation, and <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/why-patents-yes-patents-matter-to-economic-and-jobs-growth-20130201" target="_blank">appears to be confusing correlation and causation in saying that patents lead to innovation</a> and even (more ridiculously) that areas that aren't doing enough patenting need to beef up their patents to increase innovation:
<blockquote><i>
<p>Metro areas that produce a lot of patents&#8212;and the inventiveness that that implies&#8212;are more likely to see above-average gains in population, productivity, jobs, and education, according to <a onclick='var x=".tl(";s_objectID="http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2013/02/patenting-prosperity-rothwell_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true' href="http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2013/02/patenting-prosperity-rothwell">a report from the Brookings Institution</a>, a nonprofit research and policy think tank. And the bottom fourth of metro areas, the ones that produce the fewest patents, could gain as much as $4,300 per worker over a decade if they amped up their patent production to match the top fourth.</p><p>&#8220;If we were able to get the roughly 250 metropolitan areas that do very little patenting up to the level of the 100 that do a great deal of patenting, we&#8217;d be richer in an extraordinary way,&#8221; says Jonathan Rothwell, a lead researcher on the study. &#8220;It would make really a huge difference to economic development.&#8221;</p>
</i></blockquote>
Since the report focuses on successful metro areas, it seems that there are many, many other factors that may have resulted in the successful economic situations in those areas, and those other factors may also have led to the increase in patenting.  Assuming a causal relationship and (worse) suggesting that all other regions need to do is up their patenting, is a dangerously ill-informed suggestion.  While the report claims to account for "reverse" causation, it appears to make little to no effort to really account for the many, many variables that are easy to observe in every day life that lead to a correlation between patents and economic output.
<br /><br />
I'd been working on a response to some of the many methodological problems I spotted in the report, and it was growing ever longer and longer... and then I saw that Eli Dourado did a much better and more concise job of it in explaining <a href="http://elidourado.com/blog/brookings-patents/" target="_blank">why the report is bogus</a>.  Dourado points to two possible explanations for the correlation, neither of which are accounted for by the paper:
<blockquote><i>
These conclusions are unwarranted given the model and findings expressed in the paper. To see that this is the case, assume temporarily that patents do nothing to incentivize real innovation, and that they merely transfer wealth from consumers at large to the patent holder through firm profits. If this were the case, then we would find that measured output per worker was higher in metropolitan areas with more patents&#8212;exactly what the authors found!&#8212;because they are gaining profits at the expense of consumers in metropolitan areas with fewer patents. In other words, the authors could be laboring under a fallacy of composition. Just because patents enrich the MSAs that generate them doesn&#8217;t mean that they are a source of prosperity for the nation as a whole or that they increase social welfare.
<br /><br />
Alternatively, assume temporarily that patents do nothing to incentivize real innovation, but that firms that produce valuable innovations must defensively patent them to avoid being taken to court for using their own inventions. If this were the case, then patents would correlate with real innovation, and therefore with output per worker, but they would not cause an increase in productivity. In addition, at least some of the measured increase in output would come from an influx of highly-paid intellectual property attorneys, which by assumption does not represent real added productivity. Note that the top-patenting MSA in the study is Silicon Valley, the part of the country where people are most concerned about defensive patenting. But the word &#8220;defensive&#8221; does not appear even one time in the report, the appendix, or the working paper.
<br /><br />
The authors have done nothing to identify the effect of patents on productivity, which is to say, nothing to rule out either of the possible assumptions above. They are simply relying on the assumption that more patents means more innovation.
</i></blockquote>
This is a major major flaw in the paper.  It seems to assume that a whole bunch of things that simply aren't seen by folks who actually work in the industry, and makes little to no attempt to account for those other variables.  In the comments, the lead researcher on the paper, Jonathan Rothwell, tries to defend the paper, by saying (in part) that they're just using patents as a proxy on inventiveness, and the paper should not be seen as supporting patents or the patent system itself:
<blockquote><i>
Right up front, I think it is important to keep in mind that our study aimed to examine the effects of invention rather than the effects of patents themselves. Hundreds of economic papers have been written that use patents as a proxy measure of invention (based on detailed firm and industry level analysis), so I think that is fairly uncontroversial.
</i></blockquote>
Just because lots of folks do it, it doesn't mean it's right.  But the bigger issue is that while he claims that the paper is not an endorsement of patents specifically or increasingly patenting activity, that's not what he's telling the press.  Just look at the quote we have above from what he told the National Journal.  He specifically is saying that we should boost patenting in other metropolitan areas, suggesting that it would make "a huge difference to economic development."  In other words, contrary to his claims in the blog comments, when talking to the press, he's pretty clear that he believes there's a direct causal relationship between <i>patents</i> and economic development.  Furthermore, if he really believed that, he should have disclaimed, publicly, the title of that National Journal article, which explicitly says that patents (not "inventiveness") "matters to economic and job growth."
<br /><br />
Also... if the report really is about "inventiveness" and not "patents," perhaps the paper should not have been called "Patenting Prosperity."  Just saying.
<br /><br />
Brookings, of course, is quite well-established and respected, and you can bet that pro-patent-system folks will be using this report to claim that "more patents are better" and that any reforms that are designed to push back on bad patents or to start limiting the number of patents we issue, would be a bad thing.  Even though the report does, in fact, contain some arguments in favor of limiting certain types of patents and patent system abuse, those nuances will undoubtedly be lost.  This report is going to get cited repeatedly as "evidence" that we need more patents and stronger patents, despite the fact that the actual evidence says no such thing.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20130201/16463921862/bad-economics-confusing-correlation-causation-when-it-comes-to-patents-innovation.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20130201/16463921862/bad-economics-confusing-correlation-causation-when-it-comes-to-patents-innovation.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20130201/16463921862/bad-economics-confusing-correlation-causation-when-it-comes-to-patents-innovation.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>don't-go-there</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Fri, 26 Oct 2012 17:00:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>DailyDirt: The Unquestioned Benefits Of Chocolate</title>
<dc:creator>Michael Ho</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101011/11402311369/dailydirt-unquestioned-benefits-chocolate.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101011/11402311369/dailydirt-unquestioned-benefits-chocolate.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ In a few days, a lot of chocolate will be eaten by kids (and maybe their parents), and there will also be a lot of discounted candy and chocolate on sale in many grocery stores. Just so that we don't feel too bad about indulging on Halloween treats, here are a few studies that might ease our guilt for a while.

<ul>

<li> <a title="http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/smartnews/2012/10/more-chocolate-more-nobels/" href="http://bit.ly/TnZ4yV">The chocolate consumption of an entire country can be correlated with the chances of winning Nobel prizes.</a> This study brought to you by the Correlation Is Not Causation Foundation. Seriously. [<a href="http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/smartnews/2012/10/more-chocolate-more-nobels/">url</a>]</li>

<li> <a title="http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/pressreleases/fruity_science_halves/" href="http://bit.ly/XfahWN">Chocolate can be made even healthier by replacing its fat content with fruit juice.</a> By the addition of a Pickering emulsion of fruit juices and milk, a low-fat chocolate can maintain its chocolatey taste and texture -- which will just encourage chocoholics to eat even more chocolate than they should.... [<a href="http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/pressreleases/fruity_science_halves/">url</a>]</li>

<li> <a title="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577305611908900258.html?" href="http://on.wsj.com/T5Wfba">If you're looking for an excuse to eat more chocolate, a study of 1,000 adults found a correlation that people who eat chocolate more frequently tend to be thinner.</a> To really complete this study, the researchers would need to compare chocolate eaters with non-chocolate eaters -- and come up with a realistic chocolate placebo. [<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577305611908900258.html?">url</a>]</li>

</ul>

If you'd like to read more awesome and interesting stuff, check out this unrelated (but not entirely random!) <a title="http://www.stumbleupon.com/to/stumble/stumblethru:www.techdirt.com" href="http://bit.ly/fagV8c">Techdirt post</a>.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101011/11402311369/dailydirt-unquestioned-benefits-chocolate.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101011/11402311369/dailydirt-unquestioned-benefits-chocolate.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101011/11402311369/dailydirt-unquestioned-benefits-chocolate.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>urls-we-dig-up</slash:department>
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<pubDate>Thu, 25 Mar 2010 07:10:00 PDT</pubDate>
<title>Syphilis (Or Was It Facebook?) Blamed For People Not Understanding That Correlation Does Not Mean Causation</title>
<dc:creator>Mike Masnick</dc:creator>
<link>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100324/1058468694.shtml</link>
<guid>http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100324/1058468694.shtml</guid>
<description><![CDATA[ I really really really wasn't going to write this post, but so many people kept submitting it, I figured it needed to be done.  The Telegraph has some ridiculous story claiming, without any actual evidence, that <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/facebook/7508945/Facebook-linked-to-rise-in-syphilis.html" target="_blank">Facebook is "linked to the rise in syphilis."</a>  Quite a claim.  The evidence?  Oh, that's not included.  There's just some public health guy claiming that there's evidence -- without presenting any.  About the only thing in the article is that (a) more people in this particular area of the UK seem to be reporting that they got syphilis (b) people in that area are also (marginally) more likely than in other areas to use social networking (c) at least some of the people who got syphilis mentioned that they have met sexual partners via Facebook.
<br><br>
So, yes, you have a bit of weak correlation combined with self-selected anecdotal bias.  And that proves what?  Uh, absolutely nothing.  So, please, for the sake of the sanity of statisticians everywhere, please learn to practice safe statistics, where before you claim something is linked to something else, you actually use "protection" in the form of some real data.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100324/1058468694.shtml">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100324/1058468694.shtml#comments">Comments</a> | <a href="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100324/1058468694.shtml?op=sharethis">Email This Story</a><br />
 ]]></description>
<slash:department>not-without-a-chi-square!</slash:department>
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