Future WiMAX Better Than 2002 EV-DO
1) cellular broadband at 400-800Kbps with a 5GB/mo cap and a $60-$70 price tag and covering all major cities; or
2) WiMAX service at 2-4Mbps for $40-$50/mo with no usage cap and only covering your city and 1/3 of major US cities.
OK, in general I'm fine with that comparison, so long as it's positioned correctly. It's what's called a "scenario", and that scenario is a stacked deck, with a bias towards WiMAX based on some optimistic assumptions. It hardly provides conclusive evidence of whether people prefer one technology over the other. But I bashed this last time, so let's move on.
The linked article above is chiefly commentary from Jane Zweig of the Shosteck Group, who wonders if Mobile WiMAX will be the next Iridium. Remember that Iridium's plan was to capture a large share of the mobile phone market by offering service based from a global constellation of satellites. The problem was that in the 10 years it took Iridium to launch, GSM and CDMA had reached scale economies and spread from big city cores to suburbs and beyond, and only rural and developing regions were left for Iridium. Not a good addressable base to pay off billions in CapEx. Ms. Zweig suggests that similarly, mobile WiMAX may arrive too late to grab the dominant share of the market that proponents expect. I agree with her theory, and think there will be some reckoning for many WiMAX vendors. I said as much in my answer to InStat two weeks ago - cellular isn't standing still, and will respond to WiMAX. But on the other hand, it's unlikely mobile WiMAX will flame-out as badly as Iridium. It takes 10 years to get a satellite constellation operating in orbit, but mobile WiMAX is likely to emerge in nascent form by 2008. It will get a share of the market.
BTW, it's probably fair to note that, in general, InStat produces some of the best research and data about the mobile market, and no I'm not being coerced or paid to say so.