Real Scarcity Is An Important Part Of A Business Model; Artificial Scarcity Is A Terrible Business Model

from the business-modeling-for-fun-and-for-profit dept

Partly in response to Rupert Murdoch whining about how it's too risky to make films if Congress doesn't set up protectionist plans that lock down the internet, venture capitalist Fred Wilson has a great post about how "scarcity is a shitty busines model." He focuses, mainly, on the windowing aspect of movie releases these days, and how many in the industry still insist that locking up content rather than making it widely available is the key to profiting. But Fred points out (as many people have for years), that this makes no sense:

Denying customers the films they want, on the devices they want to watch them, when they want to watch them is not a great business model. It leads to piracy, as we have discussed here many times, but more importantly it also leads to the loss of a transaction to a competing form of entertainment.

[....]

I've argued this point many times with film executives. They insist that they need their windows. They argue they need to manage access to their films to extract every last dollar from the market. That just doesn't make sense to me. If they went direct to their customers, offered their films at a reasonable price (say $5/view net to them), and if they made their films available day one everywhere in the world, I can't see how they wouldn't make more money.
He points out that this certainly will disrupt some players -- but for the studios, it will undoubtedly increase the pie. It may hurt the gatekeepers, but it helps pretty much everyone else.

The one quibble I'd have with Fred's post is he keeps saying that scarcity is a bad business model. I think he's overstating his case a bit. Scarcity remains, and scarcity is still a key part of a smart business model these days. What is a bad business model is relying on artificial scarcities -- scarcities that are created by choice and by fiction -- rather than market realities. A seat in a movie theater is a real scarcity. Fred's attention is a real scarcity. Those are important parts of a real business model. Pretending an infinitely copyable video is not... is an artificial scarcity and it's a bad business model.

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Failures

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
censorship, entrepreneurship, seizures, startups, takedowns

Companies:
jotform


Congrats, US Government: You're Scaring Web Businesses Into Moving Out Of The US

from the destroying-business dept

The federal government has been paying lip service to the idea that it wants to encourage new businesses and startups in the US. And this is truly important to the economy, as studies have shown that almost all of the net job growth in this country is coming from internet startups. Thankfully some politicians recognize this, but the federal government seems to be going in the other direction. With the JotForm situation unfolding, where the US government shut down an entire website with no notice or explanation, people are beginning to recognize that the US is not safe for internet startups.

Lots of folks have been passing around this rather reasonable list of activities for US-based websites:

Today's sysadmin todo list:

0. Get corporate membership with EFF.

1. Identify all applications with user-generated content.

2. Move all associated domains to a non-US based registrar.

3. Migrate DNS, web serving and other critical services to non-US based servers.

4. Migrate yourself to a non-US controlled country.

I'm sorry for US sites and users. Your government is hell-bent on turning the internet into a read-only device like TV, easily regulated and controlled. The population will be required to sit quietly and keep their eyes glued on the screen so they don't miss the ads, with any infringers deemed terrorists and pedophiles and thus deserving of summary punishment by DHS squads.

Hopefully the internet will route around the damaged segment, and the rest of us can continue to enjoy the amazing interactivity it has brought our society.
What's amazing is the "what's the big deal?" attitude the government has taken to all of this. For most of us, this situation is shocking. The US government should never be able to flat out shut down a business with no notice or explanation, only to say "sorry" a couple days later. It's done this in the past and insisted that it would be more careful in the future. So far, it doesn't appear to be living up to that promise. While these may be "mistakes," the wider impact should be frightening to federal officials. They're now actively scaring startups away from US businesses at a time when they should be doing exactly the opposite.

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Free

by Glyn Moody


Filed Under:
competition, free, open, text books


The World Of Open Textbooks Just Became A Little More Crowded -- And A Little More Open

from the sharing-the-knowledge dept

Open e-textbooks are hardly new: Techdirt has been reporting on the pioneer in this market, Flat World Knowledge, for several years now. But a new entrant called OpenStax College is noteworthy for a number of reasons:

OpenStax College is a nonprofit organization committed to improving student access to quality learning materials. Our free textbooks are developed and peer-reviewed by educators to ensure they are readable, accurate, and meet the scope and sequence requirements of your course. Through our partnerships with companies and foundations committed to reducing costs for students, OpenStax College is working to improve access to higher education for all. OpenStax College is an initiative of Rice University and is made possible through the generous support of several philanthropic foundations.
Those foundations include the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, probably the leading philanthropic organization in the field of open education, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. But the Rice connection is just as important as the funding.

Although MIT is known as a pioneer of sharing its courses freely online through its OpenCourseWare project, arguably Rice University went even further with its highly-modular Connexions program, which offers what it calls "frictionless remixing". The use of small learning modules, together with a permissive cc-by license for everything, allows educators and publishers to create their own courses by drawing on Connexions' material.

Given that the founder of Connexions, Richard Baraniuk, is also the Director of OpenStax College, it's hardly a surprise that the same cc-by licensing applies to the latter's textbooks. Still, that's a step beyond Flat World Knowledge, which allows textbooks to be modified, but under the more restrictive cc by-nc-sa license. Even though OpenStax College is a non-profit, and Flat World Knowledge a company, both adopt the same business model: the e-textbooks are given away, while printed copies and supplementary materials require payment -- a classic example of using abundance to make money from associated scarcities.

Follow me @glynmoody on Twitter or identi.ca, and on Google+

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Content As Advertising: Making Advertising An Easter Egg For People To Hunt Down

from the nicely-done dept

Over the years, we've talked a lot about how advertising is content (and how content is advertising), and it's always nice to see cool examples that really demonstrate that in practice. Our friends over at NOTCOT are doing a fun little experiment with Bonobos pants, in which they're hiding little Bonobos Easter Eggs throughout the site, and offering prizes for people who find them.

The end result? People who are interested are actively hunting for the content, which is clearly "advertising." It's not intrusive. It's not annoying. It's not deceptive. Instead, it's desired and it has users actively seeking it out. That's the quintessential goal, when you do a good job of hitting that point where advertising is good content -- when it has absolutely nothing to do with being intrusive or annoying at all, but rather is actively sought by an audience. It's the holy grail. Unfortunately, it's also something that's still difficult to convey to advertisers, who are too often afraid to try something new and creative. So kudos to NOTCOT and Bonobos for a fun campaign.

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Economics

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
economics, free, purchases


'When Stuff Is Free, We’re More Likely to Buy'

from the oh-really? dept

Scott Wetterling was the first of a bunch of you to send in one of the many stories about how when 7-Eleven offers free slurpees, their sales of slurpees goes up. They say this is "odd behavior," but I don't buy that all. Free has been a compelling part of getting people to buy stuff for ages, even if that involves buying what is free. We've certainly seen this in other fields as well, such as when Cory Smith took his free MP3s off of his website... and immediately saw his iTunes sales plummet. People berate the use of free because they don't understand how it works. And, then, when it does work, they describe the behavior as "odd." Perhaps it's not odd at all once you realize how it works.

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Entrepreneur Magazine's History Of Suing Entrepreneurs For Using The Word Entrepreneur Gets More Attention

from the entrepreneur-entrepreneur-entrepreneur dept

Last fall, we wrote about Entrepreneur Magazine's ridiculous attempt to get an entrepreneur/writer/speaker who was pitching to use the name "entrepreneurology.com" to give up the domain. Trademarking the word "entrepreneur" seems particularly ridiculous, and BusinessWeek recently ran an excellent article detailing Entrepreneur Magazine's history of suing entrepreneurs for using the word entrepreneur. It also, amusingly if somewhat tangentially, delves into the history of Entrepreneur Magazine's founder (who is no longer associated with the magazine), who was arrested at one point in his career for robbing banks. Entrepreneur Magazine and its lawyers were not all that happy to cooperate with BusinessWeek on the profile, noting that they didn't want to help a competitor, and also pointing to trademark lawsuits from BusinessWeek's parent company Bloomberg.

Either way, it does appear, tragically and ridiculously, that Entrepreneur Magazine has won some of these previous lawsuits against other entrepreneurs. However, the creator of Entrepreneurology took the initiative and sued for declaratory judgment after receiving his cease-and-desist letter from Entrepreneur Magazine -- and is trying to invalidate the trademark, claiming the word is generic and not at all associated with the magazine. Entrepreneur Magazine vehemently denies this, of course, but as BusinessWeek points out, the magazine's own legal fights have argued otherwise at times:

In the litigious precincts of intellectual property, the aggressor inevitably finds itself chasing its own tail—and EMI and its lawyers have actually tried to use the "generic" argument to their advantage. In 2008, Ernst & Young, one of the Big Four accounting firms, sued EMI in federal court in New York, alleging that the publisher violated its trademark for an Entrepreneur of the Year award. The dispute over the prize dates to 1994, when Ernst first sent EMI a cease-and-desist missive aimed at Entrepreneur's similarly named award. EMI fired back in a lawsuit in California that Ernst's award trademark cannot be infringed because "entrepreneur of the year" is a generic term. In the end, Ernst and EMI settled their differences confidentially and out of court. EMI changed its award name slightly (nominations for "Entrepreneur Magazine's Entrepreneur of 2011" are now open), while Ernst is celebrating the 25th anniversary of its trademarked Entrepreneur of the Year program.
Oh, and you may note one other oddity in the paragraph above. Entrepreneur Media Inc., refers to itself as EMI. You have to wonder how it's never been sued by the record label EMI, with which there could be actual confusion.

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Innovation

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
business models, innovation, platforms


Being Someone Else's Bitch, Being Your Own Bitch... Or Making Others Your Bitch

from the platforms dept

We recently had a story about how the makers of iFlow Reader, an ebook reader for Apple devices, was forced to close up shop, after Apple changed the way things worked with in-app content purchases, meaning that it was impossible for iFlow to make money on Apple's platform. At the time, we pointed out how dangerous it is to rely on a single platform provider for any business, and we're still amazed that any company does that. And yet, we've seen similar things for years. Numerous companies rely entirely on one big company for pretty much everything about their business -- from Google to Facebook to Microsoft to Twitter to Apple, there are stories of all sorts of companies who pretty much could be wiped out in a single move if the larger companies changed certain terms.

I'm constantly amazed at how many companies fail to recognize this, and build business models that rely entirely on a third party. This goes beyond just software companies, as well. We see it with content creators who rely on a single provider/partner as well, rather than recognize that success comes from building a sustainable model that doesn't rely on a single provider.

A few weeks ago, in response to some questions about Twitter's recent changes, which appeared to screw with developers who relied on Twitter as a platform, Twitter investor Fred Wilson told a conference audience: "Don't be a Google bitch, don't be a Facebook bitch, and don't be a Twitter bitch. Be your own bitch." Add to that a statement from a day or so later from Google's Eric Schmidt, in which he noted that if you want to be rich, you should build your own platform on which others build, rather than relying on others, and there's a bit of an important pattern to recognize here. Of course, this doesn't mean that you can't build on others' platforms -- everyone builds off of someone's platform, but the question is: who are you reliant on going forward?

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Earnings, IPOs, and the like

by Michael Ho


Filed Under:
startups

Companies:
chubbybrain, intuit, mint, wesabe


DailyDirt: Start-up Pitches And Strikeouts...

from the urls-you-dig-up dept

Most new businesses fail within a few short years. It's just a fact. Yet optimism abounds, and entrepreneurs are always ready to start over with a new venture. Circumstances are usually just a fraction of the game (20% if you really need a made-up statistic), the rest of the outcome is based on how people react to various changes in the economy. Here are some interesting links for anyone with a startup idea.

By the way, StumbleUpon can recommend some good Techdirt articles, too.

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If Your Business Model Is Based On Hoping Your Customers Never Do Math, You're In Trouble

from the ny-times,-we're-looking-at-you dept

As we get closer to the NY Times finally putting in place its long-promised, often-mocked paywall concept, it's worth pointing to a story from a couple months ago, which I didn't have time to write about when it came out. It involved some comments on a panel from Gerald Marzorati, the Times' assistant managing editor for new media and strategic initiatives, in which he more or less mocked the subscribers of the print publication for being too ignorant to do basic math and realize just how much they were paying:

"We have north of 800,000 subscribers paying north of $700 a year for home delivery," Marzorati said. "Of course, they don't seem to know that."

As evidence that Times subscribers don't realize how much a subscription costs, he pointed to what happened when the paper raised its home-delivery price by 5 percent during the recession: Only 0.01 percent of subscribers canceled. "I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that they're literally not understanding what they're paying," he said. "That's the beauty of the credit card."
Of course, another explanation (which is much more favorable to the NY Times) is just one of general price inelasticity to a newspaper like the NY Times. If that's the case, where the price rises and most people keep subscribing, it suggests that most of those people continue to value the subscription more than the price, and the newspaper might even be able to get away with raising the price further. What's odd, however, is this assumption by Marzorati, that it's the general ignorance of their subscribers that keeps them in business. We're in an age when assuming ignorance on your customer base is a very dangerous position to be in.

If the company's guy in charge of new media and strategic initiatives seems gleeful over ignorant readers, rather than focusing on ways to make sure they continue to get more value out of their subscription than they pay for it, it makes you wonder how long this sort of setup can really last. There are all sorts of ways that a publication with the reputation of the NY Times can make lots and lots of money. But betting on the ignorance of subscribers does not seem to be like the best overall strategy.

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Second Humble Indie Bundle Does Even Better Than The First

from the but-it'll-never-work-twice dept

Earlier this year, we wrote about the "Humble Indie Bundle," which was a group of indie video games available in a bundle on a pay-what-you-want basis (and with a nice charitable component). The bundle got a lot of attention, and they were able to bring in $1,273,588 in just two weeks. After it was all over, one complaint I heard was that such things were clearly a "one-off" that could never be repeated. Well, recently, the Humble Indie Bundle 2 came out, and with plenty of time to spare, it's already made more money than the original. Also notable, just like last time, it was Linux users who are still paying a significantly higher amount on average -- contrary to the typical claims that Linux folks just want stuff for free....

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Business Models

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
business models, patents, razorblades, razors

Companies:
gillette


The Myth Of Razors And Razor Blades

from the debunking-the-conventional-wisdom dept

The story of Gillette and the famous "razors and razor blades" business model is legendary at this point. The story goes that King Gillette revolutionized business by coming up with the strategy of selling razors cheaply, but then locking people in to expensive disposable razors, where the margin existed. This strategy has become so well-known that it's mentioned all the time and seen in lots of other industries as well, especially the technology industry. It's seen as the basis for console video games (consoles cheap, games expensive), printers (printers cheap, ink expensive), mobile phone service (phones cheap, service expensive), etc.

Of course, various business strategists who discuss the razor-razor blade business model suggest that there are some key rules to making this work: for example, many feel that there needs to be some level of lock-in, that prevents competitors from entering the high margin part of the market. That is, if someone else can just sell the high margin razorblades, then why would Gillette make the low margin (or negative margin) razors, since customers might just go elsewhere for the blades?

Well, it turns out that an awful lot of both the history and the theory turn out to be totally wrong when it comes to Gillette and the razor/razor blade market. Felix Salmon points us to Randy Picker's latest paper, which explores the myths of the razors-and-blades story as it applies to Gillette -- and the counterintuitive reality of what actually happened. I don't think the real story is quite as surprising or confusing as Picker makes it out to be -- other than the surprising fact that the common "story" we've all heard turns out to be wrong.

What Picker found, first of all, is that Gillette really didn't use the cheap razors and expensive blades strategy at all in the early years. In fact, it went the opposite direction, and charged an extremely high price for the razors. While other razors went for closer to $1, Gillette charged $5 for its razor (with a set of 12 blades). As Picker notes, this represented about 1/3 of a week's wages at the time, and made it a luxury item. While there were some convenience factors, other safety razors entered the market soon and charged a lot less than Gillette for both razors and blades... and Gillette kept its prices high.

And here's where patents enter the story.

Gillette received patents in 1904 on both the razor and the blade. As Picker notes, conventional wisdom would suggest that this is the perfect point for Gillette to have used the famed razors-and-razor blades strategy, since it could use the patents to exclude competitors from offering compatible blades. But, it did not. The same "conventional wisdom" would then argue that once the patents expired, and others could offer compatible razors, the razors-and-blades strategy would not work. And yet, it was after the patents expired and when there were compatible blades on the market that Gillette finally went to this form of strategy.... and its sales and profits shot up.

Picker suggests that none of this makes sense. He says without exclusion via things like patents, a razors-and-blades strategy shouldn't work, because there would be no lock-in on the platform (razors), and there would be competitors who would just offer the blades, undercutting Gillette, which would have to eat the costs on the cheap razors. Meanwhile, without the lock-in, users could just jump ship to a competitor at will, since the platform was so cheap.

I'd argue, however, that it actually makes perfect sense, the more you think about it. With patents, Gillette priced the razors (and, potentially, the blades) artificially high, creating a smaller, artificially limited market. This has long been our complaint with patents in general. Once the patents expired, and actual direct competition became more of an issue, then Gillette finally had to price to the market, capturing a much larger segment of the market, driving up revenue and profits because of it. As for why once the patents were no longer a serious issue, this strategy still worked, I think Picker underestimates both the value of brand loyalty and convenience, as well as mental transaction costs.

That is, even if others offer compatible blades for Gillette products, people are generally loyal to the overall platform brand if it hasn't done them wrong. Not everyone will be, of course. There will always be some pure price shoppers who look for the best deal. But many people will remain generally loyal to Gillette, and with more customers coming in due to market pricing, the net benefit could be much greater. On top of that, people don't want to have to worry about whether or not the blades will really fit or really work as well. They're likely to feel more comfortable going with the brand name that is the same as the razor maker, knowing that it will work, and that there's a level of quality involved. Choosing a different brand of blade involves risk and mental transaction costs that many users just won't want to bother with.

The whole thing is quite fascinating in thinking about these kinds of business models. Printer companies, especially, might learn a thing or two, as they've now become quite aggressive in using patents to block competitors from offering compatible ink cartridges or ink refills. But, the example of Gillette suggests they could be better off not fighting it, but focusing on providing better quality that doesn't annoy users quite so much.

Separately, I should also note that this is why I think that the classic (now, apparently mythological) Gillette razors-and-blades business model is not quite the same as the business models I suggest when it comes to infinite and scarce goods. That's because the classic Gillette story (as opposed to what really happened, apparently) would require lock-in. But the give away the infinite and sell the scarce setup is to not worry about lock-in, since that tends to piss people off, but rather focus on providing value so that people are comfortable buying from you -- which seems to be a bit closer to what actually happened with Gillette.

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Economics

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
economics, freakonomics, movie, pay what you want


Freakonomics Does 'Pay What You Want' Screening

from the reasons-to-buy? dept

Last month, we talked about how the new Freakonomics movie was going to flip the traditional windowing methodology, and get released online before it was in theaters. At the time, Stephen Dubner warned that there was also going to be another "wrinkle" in how they released the movie. I'm not sure if this is it, but it's been announced that there is going to be a special "pay what you want" screening in select cities (Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington D.C., Chicago, Boston, Dallas, Philadelphia, Denver, and Seattle). Free isn't an option, however. The prices range from $0.01 to $100, and you also have to answer some survey questions. I'm always a little hesitant to buy into straight "pay what you want" deals, because I don't think they represent much -- and I worry that people read too much into the results of any particular experiment, especially when little is done to give people a real reason to buy on top of the content. So, to some extent, I worry how Levitt and Dubner might interpret any results from this experiment.

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Business Models

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
business models, freemium, startups


Software Startups Realizing That Cookie-Cutter Freemium Doesn't Always Work Well

from the but-don't-miss-the-point dept

A few weeks ago, we ran a webinar about "using free as a part of your business." One of the speakers was Phil Libin, from Evernote, who gave a very detailed presentation (you can view the whole thing here) about how Evernote has turned "freemium" into a success story. I found his points fascinating, in part because I've actually never been a huge fan of the "freemium" model for software -- where you get some basic features for free and then to use more, you have to pay. I don't talk about "freemium" very often, because I'm not convinced it's a strategy that works in most cases. It can obviously work in some specific cases, as Evernote has discovered, but it can be tricky to apply elsewhere.

There are a few reasons for this. First of all, the basic concept of "freemium," involves some rather arbitrary choices. You provide "x amount" of storage/users/projects/features/etc. for free, and you hope that people will pay for increased storage/users/projects/features/etc. But where do you make the cut off? That's quite tricky to figure out, because there's no fundamental reason for the cutoff points. When we talk about using free in a business model, we generally focus on freeing infinite goods and selling the scarce goods, but "freemium" offerings for web services don't tend to make any such distinction. The "free" versions are basically given away as marketing in the hopes that people will upgrade.

But in many cases, that doesn't work for a few key reasons: first, you now have incentives to make the "free" offering worse. That's never a good thing. In the effort to get people to sign up for the premium version, you have bad incentives. You don't want to make the free version "too good" as then people won't feel the need to upgrade. I find that to be a bad incentive structure in many cases. On top of that, there's a part of this that's a "give it away and pray," type strategy. Yes, you're offering more features, but figuring out that right mix of what's free and what's paid is really incredibly tricky, and you simply have to learn to accept, as Libin has done, that the vast majority of people using your app are just there for the free version. For Evernote, one of the keys to making it work is that the app itself becomes more and more useful, the more you use it. That leads to greater conversions over time. That's honestly rare for most apps which have a more or less steady-state usefulness.

The problem is that while the "free" version is supposed to act as "marketing" for the paid version, it's often wildly mis-targeted. Many people use the free version solely because it's free, and have no interest in signing up for the paid version at all. So that's not the right target market. If you're going to charge for something, you need to give people a real reason to buy, which often is offering something entirely different that is enhanced by something free, rather than limiting something free.

Unfortunately, however, the whole concept of "freemium" (including the catchy term) has received so much attention that many startups now jump right in with a cookie-cutter "freemium" offering -- and now they're learning why that's a mistake. Ross Pruden alerts us to a really interesting article from an entrepreneur who went the cookie-cutter freemium route, and eventually backed away from it and saw his revenue shoot upwards. He then explores a few other companies that have gone through similar evolutions, and saw the exact same thing happen.

This isn't surprising, given the problems described above about "freemium." Unfortunately, however, the author of that blog post, Ruben Gamez, jumps to the wrong conclusion that "free plans don't work." That's taking it a bit far. Freemium type plans can work in some cases, and "free" by itself can work wonders, if done right. But that tends to involve using free to enhance the value of something else, rather than using it as a sampling.

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How Microsoft Missed The Disruptive Innovation In Paid Search

from the missing-the-details dept

We recently highlighted a part of one of Paul Graham's recent essays that told the story of how Yahoo missed the paid search opportunity, by fearing that it would cannibalize all the revenue coming in from its "portal" business. As we noted, it was a great example of why big companies so rarely notice disruptive innovation, even when it's handed to them. Ali Partovi picked up on the same part of Graham's essay, and wrote a similar story about why Microsoft also failed to see the opportunity in paid search, despite the fact that Partovi and others were pushing for it, both from the outside, and then inside (after Microsoft bought his company, LinkExchange):

From 1997 to 2000, we visited Yahoo more than a dozen times to pitch the Keywords idea: pay-for-placement, keyword-targeted text ads on the side of search results. Despite repeated rejection, we pitched every member of Yahoo's executive team multiple times, each time finding new ways to present the concept and new data to support how profitable and huge the opportunity might be, all in vain....

In late 1998, Microsoft bought LinkExchange for $265 million, telling us they liked the "Keywords" vision. As Microsoft employees, we continued pitching the Keywords deal not only to Yahoo, but also to the up-and-coming Google. I wasn't surprised to find that these companies were wary of partnering with Microsoft. My greater surprise was the seemingly insurmountable resistance we faced within Microsoft itself.

After almost two years of fighting bureaucratic obstacles, we finally got the green light to launch "Keywords" as an MSN Search feature in 2000. It started growing rapidly, and the MSN Ad Sales division feared (correctly) that it would cannibalize banner ad revenue. They therefore decided (incorrectly) to shut down Keywords after a few months. If Yahoo's demise stemmed in part from being ambivalent about technology, perhaps Microsoft's error stemmed in part from being ambivalent about ad sales: we couldn't get the senior execs interested enough to intervene.
Both cases highlight the same basic point: the claim that big companies will automatically recognize a disruptive innovation and "copy it" is wishful thinking in many cases. Time and time and time again we see stories more like the ones above, where truly disruptive innovation isn't just ignored, it's actively blocked at big legacy companies who fear it cannibalizing an existing business, rather than recognizing the opportunity.

In the end, both Microsoft and Yahoo failed to jump into keyword advertising in any serious way until long after Google established it as a giant business. At that point, both tried to play catch-up, with Yahoo buying Overture and Microsoft rebuilding its product -- and as we've also seen over and over again, by waiting that long, it was too late. The two companies still haven't come anywhere close to catching up in market share, even if the technology is considered to be about equal at this point.

So the fear of some big company coming out and just "copying" you is generally overblown. If your idea is really disruptive, they probably won't recognize it, and by the time they do, you'll have a big head start, and their attempts to copy what you did will prove a lot more difficult than they expected.

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Why Waiting Until A New Business Model Is Proven Doesn't Work

from the it's-why-you-need-to-start-early dept

One of the criticisms of our business model discussions here is something along the lines of "but how will this replace the $x billion already made." Or, alternatively "well, how can you expect anyone to switch until you show that it will replace what they already are doing?" The answer, of course, is that by the time you know that a new business model will work well enough, it's too late. It means one of two things have happened: either a competitor has figured it out and taken over the market or your existing business model is too decimated to have enough left to make the switch. This is the nature of so-called "Creative Destruction."

This point is highlighted in a recent NY Times article about how Netflix tries to avoid creative destruction by experimenting with new models well before they need to, and well before the old model has lost steam. The article compares Netflix to Blockbuster, which highlights this perfectly. Even though Blockbuster did see the success of Netflix and how the market was changing, it was very slow in embracing it, and never did so whole-heartedly. And even though it has a service quite similar to Netflix's, it has a lot fewer users and is struggling financially.

The article highlights this with Kodak as well:

Kodak saw digital photography coming. It even invented some of the earliest such technology, in 1975. Kodak just misjudged how fast consumers would give up on film and start snapping up digital cameras. And it misjudged its ability to outrun both trends.
Indeed. In 1997, I did work with a professor who was consulting for Kodak, and we did a detailed report on why Kodak needed to embrace digital now. The response? Kodak told us "yes, yes, digital is important, and we'll be ready to switch, but right now, chemical processing of photos is so much cheaper, there's no reason to change yet." And, they were right that it was a lot cheaper, but they were wrong about the time to start switching.

There are a few reasons for this:
  1. Companies always misjudge the speed of trends, especially the rate of change. Things like digital revolutions start out slowly, and the quality seems bad. So companies in legacy businesses figure they have a long time to make the change. But the rate of change increases rapidly, especially once it "tips" and reaches a critical threshold. At that point, if you're not fully invested in the new business, you're, way, way, way behind.
  2. It's difficult to really understand the new technology/market unless you're playing deeply in the space. This is the same thing we noted with people who claim that patents are necessary because once a good idea comes along others will just copy it. In many cases, that's not possible. That's because the truly innovative ideas require some real hands-on experience. Watching others do it is not the same thing.
  3. It's very difficult, culturally, to build up businesses that cannibalize your existing cash cows. The skill sets may be different, and people begin to recognize that these "new" people may be working on projects that replace the "old" people. That leads to a lot of resentment and makes it really difficult to actually hire the good new people -- since they recognize they're going to face those kinds of institutional restrictions. For them, it's just easier to go to a "native" company that has bet entirely on the new offering.
All of this impacted Kodak:
Even when Kodak wanted to change, it couldn't, said Mr. Lucas, who has studied the company. "It was so large and had been so successful for so long that it was difficult to bring in people with a digital background."

Kodak has had to take draconian steps to survive. It closed labs and factories and laid off 60 percent of its staff of 60,000.
Indeed, Kodak is impressive in that it actually has been able to shift... even if it took a lot longer than necessary, and even now it's considered to remain behind other players in the space.

This is, of course, the typical Innovator's Dilemma, but it helps explain why so few companies are able to survive the innovator's dilemma. Even if they know about it, they think they can wait. They think that they shouldn't invest heavily in those new technologies and new markets until there's a clear path to profitability, or a clear plan for how it "replaces" what's already there. The problem is that by the time they have the answers to those questions, it's too late.

39 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 

Business Models

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
business models, commentary


Yes, People Can Comment On Content Business Models Without Having Produced Hit Content

from the appeal-to-false-authority dept

We've seen it over and over again in the comments on Techdirt. We'll talk about the impact of copyright or patents, and a lawyer will claim that unless we're an IP lawyer, we should not comment. Or we'll talk about content business models for the music or movie industry, and someone will claim that until we've had a hit song or movie, we should not comment. The argument always struck me as a curious one. After all, just because you don't have a law degree, doesn't mean you can't understand copyright law. In fact, since we're usually talking about the economic impact of copyright law, it seemed like the easy retort is that if those lawyers didn't have an economics degree, perhaps they shouldn't be talking about the impact of copyright law either. Of course, that's silly. The fact is, anyone who understands the basic issues has a right to give their opinion, and back it up with facts and discuss their positions. But saying that someone who doesn't have "x degree" or "y experience" is usually a response from someone who doesn't want to argue the actual details.

Filmmaker Ross Pruden just wrote a blog post discussing this, where he pointed out that you don't need first-hand experience to understand details and make a proper judgment call about how to run a business. When we talk about music or movie business models, I'm not suggesting I know how to make a hit song or movie. But I can look at the economics and suggest what makes sense from a business perspective given the market today. Just as Ross can look at the market and realize that how things are done today don't make as much sense, even if he hasn't (yet) made a "commercially successful film."

This whole appeal to a false authority is a bit annoying, because it's an easy way to dismiss the messenger without addressing the message. I doubt it will change, but it was nice of Ross to call out this point. Having created a hit song doesn't mean you know how to navigate a changing market. Knowing how to produce a blockbuster movie doesn't mean you know how to use the internet to your advantage. Knowing how to get a patent doesn't mean you know how patents impact innovation. Unfortunately, some people think that if they know one aspect of these things, only they are allowed to comment on the business models or economic implications. That's simply not true -- and those who go there tend to be in denial about the market challenges they face.

171 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 

Business Models

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
charity, pay what you want, studies


Pay What You Want Works Much Better With A Charity Component

from the empirical-research dept

We've talked a lot about different types of business models with "pay what you want" being a popular one that comes up often. I still think there are some problems with it, but there's growing evidence that it can work very well. When Radiohead got a ton of attention for using it, the band made more from the digital "donations" than any of its previous albums' digital releases -- even though plenty of people still chose to pay nothing, and the average price was a lot lower than standard. But average price is kind of meaningless when judging the success of such a program. It's really the net that matters, and on that front, Radiohead did quite well.

We've seen the general model work elsewhere as well. A taxi driver had some success with it, as have many musicians who have used it with merchandise at shows. Even Panera Bread is testing it out. Earlier this year, there was a lot of attention paid to the really, really successful story of the Humble Indie Bundle that did pay what you want for a group of video games. That had an added component as well. Some portion of what you paid could be designated to go to specific charities (EFF and Child's Play).

It seems that the folks behind the Humble Indie Bundle are on to something.

A fascinating new study has shown that "pay what you want" offerings seem to maximize the net take for those using it if they include charitable giving. The study was done at an amusement park, where people could buy a photo of themselves on a roller coaster, and four different situations were tested: (1) the standard "pay a fixed price" (2) a straight "pay what you want" (3) fixed price with part of the money going to charity and (4) pay what you want with part of it going to charity.

What's amazing is that the fourth one was the best one in terms of the net amount to the seller (yes, after giving the portion to charity). Sales were much higher and the net dollar amount to the seller was much higher than the straight "pay what you want."

Specifically, when people were asked to pay the flat price of $12.95, only 0.5% did. The $12.95 price, where half went to charity, barely increased the number of buyers. Then only 0.57% of people bought, and (obviously) after the charities cut was taken out, the net was way down. If it was pure "pay what you want," a lot more people bought: 8.4%, but the amount was much, much lower (average: $0.92). In terms of overall revenue, the gross is up, but the net definitely depends on the cost of the photos. If there's no marginal cost, then net revenue would go up as well (what Radiohead found). But in the final scenario, where it was pay what you want, but half went to charity, the overall reaction was the highest. 4.5% bought, and the average price was $5.33. Even when you take out the half going to charity, the revenue is much, much higher.

Now, there are a few caveats I can think of here. The $12.95 price appears to be pretty high. It's entirely possible that there could be another, lower, price that would do a better job maximizing profits. Perhaps at $5, the results would be somewhat different. So I'd definitely like to see more research done with different pricing points. Separate from that, I also find it... odd, that the yield rate when charity is added to pay what you want seems to be almost half of the pure pay what you want. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I can't see how that makes much sense. The "cost" to the user is the same, effectively, and clearly a lot of people value it a lot more. But nearly half don't value it at all? That seems... odd. Perhaps there are some more details that are missing from the summary of the study.

Overall, though, a fascinating experiment that shows how helping a charity can not just be good for the charity, but can also maximize your own efforts. Just don't tell that to the financial columnist who thinks charitable lemonade stands are destroying America.

18 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 

Wireless

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
android, app development, situated software, smartphones

Companies:
google


Google Tries To Make It Easy For Anyone To Create Android Apps

from the will-apple-do-that? dept

While Apple continues to want to act as a major gatekeeper for apps on the iPhone, Google continues to go in the other direction with Android. Its latest trick is to release a super simple GUI interface for designing personal apps for Android phones, with the idea of making it easy for anyone to create some software. This has been the holy grail of quite a few projects over the years: this concept of "situated" software. To date, most of the attempts to create such programming tools haven't gone very far (or, at the least, haven't been as widely adopted). Most of those tools have been for the desktop or the web, so it will be interesting to see if it's a different situation for smartphones. I would imagine one of the biggest barriers is mental, not technical, where people who just aren't programmers never even think of the idea of creating their own software. Still, it will be worth watching to see if anything useful comes from this offering. I like the fact that one student testing the program created a "LifeAlert-type" "Help, I've fallen!" app already, which uses the accelerometer on the phone to sense if someone is falling, and then automatically dials a number for help...

41 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 

Copyright

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
copyright, fashion, food, innovation, restaurants


Lack Of Food Copyright Helps Restaurant Innovation Thrive

from the yet-again dept

We've discussed over and over again how a lack of copyright protection in the fashion industry helps that industry thrive, because it helps disseminate fashion trends faster, helps better segment markets and (most importantly) gives designers more reasons to keep working on the next thing to stay ahead of the competition. It's a great example of a creative industry that is highly competitive and highly innovative without copyright. Other industries where we've seen similar things include the magic industry and stand up comedy. At times, we've also mentioned the restaurant business, but haven't looked at it in any great detail.

Reader Ephraim points us to a recent post at the Freakonomics blog that highlights how the restaurant business absolutely thrives creatively, despite a lack of copyright protection. The main example: the rise of Korean taco trucks in LA. As you may or may not know (and trust me, you're better off if you are familiar with this trend), a few years back, some enterprising folks set up a Korean taco truck in LA called Kogi. It quickly became a huge sensation, in part because the food is awesome and in part through smart marketing, including being one of the first food establishments to actively embrace Twitter.

But what happened next is quite interesting. Throughout LA (and now around the country) there's been an explosion of Korean taco trucks. And, it's not just limited to trucks. As the article notes, the large chain Baja Fresh is now offering Korean tacos as well. Believers in strong copyright have trouble explaining why this happens. According to them, without copyright as an "incentive to create" people won't innovate because they can't be rewarded, but that's not what's happening at all:

As readers of our past posts know, the conventional wisdom says that in a system like this no one should innovate. Copyright's raison d'etre is to promote creativity by protecting creators from pirates. But in the food world, pirates are everywhere. By this logic, we ought to be consigned to uninspired and traditional food choices. In short, the Korean taco should not exist.

But the real world does not follow this logic. In fact, we live in a golden age of cuisine. Thousands of new dishes are created every year in the nation's restaurants. The quality of American cuisine is very high. The so-called molecular gastronomy movement has innovated in myriad (and often bizarre) ways that have filtered down to more modest restaurants all over the world. Television shows such as Top Chef and Iron Chef challenge contestants to mix and match improbable combinations of ingredients with little warning or time. Our contemporary food culture, in short, not only offers creativity; it increasingly worships creativity--and many of us worship it right back.
So why isn't the "theory" matching up with reality? The author's come up with a few theories, but it seems to me that the biggest reason is the same one why the arguments that copyright is needed to get people paid is so wrong: they're not selling copyright. They're selling a product. And you can still sell your product whether or not someone can copy you. In fact, if someone can copy you, you have incentives to keep innovating and adding extra value that the buyer can only get from you -- such as prestige or ambiance or experience.

The authors also point out another reason (similar to the one we've noted about comedians), which is that there are social norms involved as well, focused on reputation. If you're seen as just copying the works of others, you are looked down upon, and reputation is quite important in these fields. And, of course, reputation and social norms function just fine without copyright.

The authors of the blog post conclude with a dead-on assessment:
The key point is that culinary creativity is flourishing, and it doesn't depend on copyright. Like fashion, food challenges our preconceptions about the economics of innovation--and perhaps should challenge our legal rules as well.
Pretty much everywhere we look, when we find industries or fields where copyright doesn't exist or isn't relied upon, we see the same thing: much higher levels of competition, more and faster innovation and an overall thriving industry. This is the kind of actual evidence that never seems to be discussed in debates over strengthening copyright laws, but should be. It also explains the supposedly "counterintuitive" research that has shown as there has been less respect for copyright in movies, music and books... the rate of production for each of those has increased as well (again, contrary to what copyright system defenders will tell you).

At what point can we put the "without copyright no one would create new content" statement into the mythbin of history?

213 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 

Is It Better To *Require* Or *Request* Something In Return For Free Content?

from the the-debate-goes-on dept

Over at Music Think Tank there's a blog post provocatively titled: Why Music Should Never Be Given Away For "Free", which brings up a point I've heard multiple times from various music industry marketers (many of whom I generally agree with). They say it is okay to give away music without a monetary transaction taking place, but instead you should demand something else in return. In this post, he suggests requiring an email address, a retweet or a Facebook share in order to get free music.

I definitely understand the general rationale for this line of thinking, but I'm afraid that people are going too far with it, and it's actually harming the value of free music in some cases. Obviously, it's great if you can get something (monetarily or not) in exchange for the music, but putting up a barrier can also be harmful. First of all, if it's truly a brand new fan who hasn't heard your work, they might not be willing to commit to you in that way. Especially when it comes to Tweeting or Facebooking an artist. If I don't know the artist, there's no way I'm mentioning them to all of the people who follow me on various social networks. On the flip side, when I do see friends who make those kinds of Tweets, they feel like spam. They're not at all convincing and they don't feel authentic. They feel forced. Honestly, when I see people post social networking messages in exchange for free tracks, it actually makes me less interested in the musical act, because I feel like they need to beg for attention, rather than letting the fans organically give them attention.

Finally, part of the reason the whole "free music" world exploded the way it did was because of the massive simplicity and lack of friction in music sharing, which made music discovery and promotion much more seamless and easy. Putting required friction back into the process seems like a mistake, and will likely just drive fans (or potential fans) either to other artists or back to the same file sharing systems that remove that friction. That doesn't help anyone.

So rather than requiring an explicit exchange, it always seems a hell of a lot more effective to offer the content for free, but ask for the exchange as a voluntary setup: "If you like these songs, tell your friends or sign up for our mailing list" or something like that. This way it's not forced. It's not inauthentic. It's not friction. It's about trusting the listeners, rather than trying to force them to act in a certain way.

55 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 

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