by Mike Masnick
Thu, Aug 7th 2008 8:35am
by Teck Chia
Wed, Sep 26th 2007 9:43am
from the could-be-a-stretch dept
The prediction was serious enough to elicit a response from a Googler who disagrees with this association. The analogy is very interesting, and in many ways, we are indeed seeing a similar evolutionary path in web applications. Joel identified three platform characteristics, namely, a portable programming language, high interactivity and UI standards as important phases in the desktop world, that will eventually happen in the web world. And, he suggests, whoever can gain traction doing all three will have as much impact as Microsoft Windows back in the desktop era. This might be the case, but the more interesting question is whether it is even possible to achieve dominance from scratch just by doing all three?
Yes, Joel is right in that history is indeed repeating itself in many ways, but it seems unlikely that anyone (especially Google) will be blindsided by a bratty upstart. If so, that startup will be making history, not repeating it.