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stories filed under: "iphones"
Predictions

Predictions

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
iphones, mental transaction costs, micropayments, penny gap, software



The Hidden Costs Of Micropayments Go Beyond The Penny Gap

from the thinking-this-through dept

For as far back as I can remember, there have always been folks who insist that micropayments are the solution to the "free" content question. That is, they believe that the solution to "free" content is to set up a system where content can be accessed for such a low price that it's "close enough" to free and people don't mind. However, as Clay Shirky pointed out many years ago, it's not that easy at all. As soon as you add in some cost, even a small one, it creates mental transaction costs that go beyond the payment itself. Basically, just the fact that you need to think about whether or not it's worth it, creates a disincentive to consume that content. And, indeed, most micropayment schemes haven't gone very far. Last year, VC Josh Koppelman named this phenomenon "the penny gap" to explain how the "gap" in getting someone to go from $0 to $0.01 is much bigger than the gap from getting someone to go from $0.01 to $0.02 (in some ways, it's the same as the difference from going from 0 mph to 1 mph -- inertia is a powerful force).

However, Andrew Parker is questioning whether the real problem isn't an economics issue, but a usability issue. That is, if it were really easy to pay that $0.01, people wouldn't mind so much. In other words, a big part of that "mental transaction cost" that Shirky talks about is (according to Parker) the effort needed to establish that payment (a login, supplying payment info, etc.). As proof that this may be the case, Parker points to the early distribution numbers for the iPhone App Store which show more $0.99 apps sold than free apps downloaded. His point: since the iPhone makes it so easy to get an app and pay for it, the "penny gap" or the mental transaction costs really aren't that high.

This is a really good point -- and it is a testament to what a good job Apple did with the App Store to make it so seamless to the user. You absolutely can reduce the mental transaction costs, and that shrinks the penny gap significantly. However, I wouldn't be so quick to jump to the conclusion that micropayment solutions will become that big a deal. First off, these are only the initial results from App Store sales, when you're dealing with early adopters. I'll be interested to see if the results remain this way over a longer period of time.

Even more importantly, though, there may be other hidden costs that should deter certain publishers from focusing on micropayments. Mainly, you are driving away the ability of your users to share and promote your content for you. In other words, you're shutting off one of the best tools to get your app more widely used and recognized. So, even removing the transaction costs from the equation, going to a micropayment solution over a free one doesn't always make the most sense.

16 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 
News You Could Do Without

News You Could Do Without

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
iphones, pricing, steve jobs, strategy

Companies:
apple



iPhone Shows That Cheaper Phones Are Still Important

from the price-is-important dept

The iPhone has received plenty of well-deserved (and plenty of not-so-well-deserved) hype and press over the past year or so, but one of the key points that Apple tried to make when it launched was that a premium phone deserved a premium price -- and people would pay for it, even without a massive subsidy from a mobile operator, as is typical of other phones. And, while there definitely was a huge crush of Apple fans who had to buy the iPhone early, the fact that Steve Jobs quickly lopped $200 off the price, just months after it was introduced, suggested that the number of people willing to pay that kind of premium wasn't as much as expected. In today's keynote, as was widely predicted, Jobs launched the new 3G iPhones with another $200 cut off the price, so the base model with 8gigs is now $199 -- down into the range of your typical subsidized smartphone.

While the iPhone has done plenty to get people to rethink mobile interfaces, it seems clear that Apple may have initially misjudged how people would respond to premium-priced phones. Jobs had promised 10 million iPhones sold in the first 18 months, and has reached about 5 million in the first 12 months (nothing to sneeze at, obviously). However, to get up to that 10 million number, he had to drop the price to be competitive with other phones. It's a smart move (though, it's not clear if the $199 is subsidized or not), given the market conditions, but beyond the lessons that everyone will talk about concerning Steve Jobs' strategy in launching the iPhone, the most interesting of all may be how the initial pricing structure backfired -- but was changed so quickly.

19 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 
The Market

The Market

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
inventory, iphones, wall street

Companies:
apple



Wall Street Noticing That The Math On iPhones Doesn't Add Up

from the 2-+-2-only-equals-3? dept

While Wall Street has had something of a love affair with Apple's stock until very recently, it appears that they're finally catching on that not everything may be as rosy as stated. With Apple and AT&T announcing numbers on iPhone sales and iPhone activations, respectively, there's a 1.7 million phone gap between those numbers. Taking into account the recent launches of iPhones in other countries (estimated at 350,000 to 400,000 iPhones so far) and a 20% estimate on people buying iPhones solely for unlocking, there are still nearly 700,000 iPhones unaccounted for... suggesting that they're sitting on store shelves, piling up as unsold inventory. That number suggests at least some gap between perceived demand and actual demand -- while also raising questions about how much effort it will take to eat through that inventory.

42 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 
Rumors, Conspiracies, etc.

Rumors, Conspiracies, etc.

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
iphones, unlock

Companies:
apple



Are 10% Of iPhones Sold To Unlockers?

from the are-10%-now-bricked? dept

Analysts from investment bank Piper Jaffray are making some news today after releasing a report claiming that 10% of iPhones are actually being sold to groups that are unlocking them and reselling them. They seem to be basing this on the fact that there are a bunch of folks going in and buying the maximum single allotment of 5 iPhones at a time. If this is true, the actual number of unlocked iPhones could actually be significantly higher, as many unlockers are buying the phone and unlocking it themselves. On the flip side, there could be other explanations for people buying 5 iPhones rather than to resell them unlocked. Either way, it should be clear that there's a fair amount of demand for unlocked iPhones, which again raises the question of why Steve Jobs ever agreed to an exclusive with AT&T.

12 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 
(Mis)Uses of Technology

(Mis)Uses of Technology

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
iphones, security patches

Companies:
apple



Stories Of iBricks Scaring Users Away From Apple Security Patches

from the whoops dept

With stories of iPhones (even those who weren't unlocked) getting iBricked, it seems that there's a growing trend for people to fear Apple's security patches. Apparently the rumors of possible damage to phones (kicked off by Apple's own announcement) has spread widely enough that the message getting through isn't "don't unlock your iPhone," as Apple may have intended -- but, "don't update your iPhone with official Apple patches." From Apple's perspective, that can't be a good thing. Perhaps, next time, they'll be a bit more careful in crafting patches.

17 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 
(Mis)Uses of Technology

(Mis)Uses of Technology

by Mike Masnick


Filed Under:
iphones, unlock

Companies:
apple



Unlocked iPhones (Temporarily?) iBricked

from the and-so-it-goes dept

As Apple warned earlier this week, the latest firmware update did, in fact, "break" unlocked iPhones and kill unofficial 3rd party iPhone apps. It's still not clear how intentional this was, but it still seems like something that Apple should have made at least a little more of an effort to avoid. The folks who unlocked their iPhones and who were installing 3rd party apps were the early adopters who were most likely to go out and evangelize the device -- especially if it was more useful thanks to alternative networks and better applications. Over at Gizmodo, they have a good post discussing what's actually happening, with two important points: the update is not doing any permanent damage to the phone (meaning that it'll probably be a short while until software hacks are developed to bring bricked iPhones back to life) and that Apple could have pretty easily avoided messing up the phones (suggesting that perhaps it was at least somewhat intentional).

47 Comments | Leave a Comment..

 
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