No, The Internet Isn't Running Out Of Bandwidth

from the stop-worrying-about-it dept

Nemertes Research has a history of putting out fear mongering reports about the coming bandwidth flood that will kill the internet. So I pretty much ignored the news that it had come out with another one, which the press is happy to report without any hint of skepticism (or noting that Nemertes is funded by telcos who stand to benefit from fears of a bandwidth glut). However, people keep submitting it, so let's just point out, once again, that stories of a coming "exaflood" of traffic are completely bogus. Actually research from those who have seen the data has shown that there is no problem and the growth rate is actually slowing. This has been widely reported. And yet, Nemertes still insists that we're running out of bandwidth? Don't believe it. Update: Someone from Nemertes stops by in the comments to say that this isn't new research, and that the particular news report "took great liberty with his story." He also says that they agree the internet is not running out of bandwidth, but they are worried about last mile bandwidth.

15 Comments | Leave a Comment..

Oh No, Now The Rapid Internet Growth Is Going To Use Up All Our Electricity

from the extrapolations-are-fun dept

We recently pointed out yet another telco-funded study warning about how the internet was going to be overwhelmed by massive traffic growth if the government didn't step in and give telcos everything they wished. However, the University of Minnesota's Minnesota Internet Traffic Studies (MINTS) has responded to the report noting, yet again, that the data put forth by the telcos is totally overblown. The actual evidence suggests internet growth is not nearly as rapid as the original report stated and, in fact, there's substantial evidence that the rate of internet usage is slowing. Just as we've seen from various earlier studies, it appears that regular upgrades to equipment, rather than wholesale gov't handouts to telcos, should be more than enough to keep the internet humming.

But don't be surprised to start seeing other fear tactics come into play. For example, an anonymous reader sent in news of a report coming out of Australia, warning that we shouldn't just be worried about bandwidth running out, but that all the energy it takes to run the internet will now be putting a strain on the electric grid. Of course, that seems to assume the same rapid pace of growth that the original (incorrect) report claimed, so I don't think we need to worry about our electricity running out due to people downloading too many videos any time soon. But, still, you should probably expect to see such arguments show up coming out of politicians in the very near future.

7 Comments | Leave a Comment..

Telcos: The Internet Will Collapse If The Gov't Doesn't Gives Us Lots Of Money

from the proof,-please? dept

For a while now, we've been noting that whenever you hear people warning about the impending broadband crunch, it's politicians, consultants or lobbyists. When you actually talk to technologists, they point out that there's no problem and that normal upgrades will keep everything just fine -- even without having to do any kind of traffic shaping or violation of net neutrality.

Yet, that won't stop the lobbyists, consultants and top marketing execs from claiming otherwise. A trade group heavily funded by AT&T is out yet again, warning that the internet will collapse by 2012 if "something" isn't done -- with that "something" being basically big government subsidies to the telcos. Consider it the telco bailout plan of 2009. Hell, if we're already bailing out Wall St. and Detroit, why not telcos as well?

18 Comments | Leave a Comment..

Once More, With Feeling: The Internet Isn't At Risk Of Running Out Of Bandwidth

from the no-exaflood dept

For years, we've been hearing telco execs, telco lobbyists and politicians screaming over the coming death of the internet due to an "exaflood" of bandwidth, as things like internet video and bittorrent totally overwhelmed the internet infrastructure. There was little proof that this was actually an issue, and plenty of evidence suggesting that ordinary infrastructure upgrades would more than handle all expected growth. And, in the last few months we've been seeing more and more public reports supporting this position. In August alone we saw two separate reports noting that internet growth was actually slowing rather than increasing at an alarming rate.

And now there's a third such report, looking at internet backbone traffic and noting that there's little to worry about:

For the second consecutive year, the rate of underlying international Internet capacity deployment outpaced global Internet traffic growth, leading to lower utilization levels on many Internet backbones. Between 2007 and 2008, average traffic utilization levels decreased from 31 percent to 29 percent while peak utilization fell from 44 percent to 43 percent.

Yet, if you listen to telco lobbyists, execs and politicians, they'd have you believe that over the past couple of years, the growth of BitTorrent and internet video was flooding the networks. Hopefully, with so many reports pointing out the opposite, politicians will finally start pushing back the next time a lobbyist or exec starts claiming that the internet is at risk of running out of bandwidth.

21 Comments | Leave a Comment..

ISP Admits Internet Traffic Is Actually Declining

from the but-what-about-the-exaflood? dept

For quite some time, we've been pointing out that all the fear mongering from lobbyists and politicians about a coming "exaflood" of bandwidth that will wipe out the internet unless ISPs are allowed to double charge for the same bandwidth, is something of a myth. Instead, it turns out that traffic appears to be slowing its growth trajectory somewhat. The latest to agree with this is Cogent, who supplies plenty of bandwidth, but actually found overall traffic decline last quarter. Apparently, the unstoppable march of bandwidth consumption isn't as threatening as some would have you believe.

26 Comments | Leave a Comment..