BSA's Canadian Piracy Numbers Based On Hunches, Not Actual Surveys

from the bogus-stats-as-always dept

For years, we've been raising questions about the incredibly bogus stats the BSA puts out every year. There are so many problems with them it's incredible that the group continues to release them each year... and much worse that the press and politicians quote them as if they're factual. However, Michael Geist has discovered that they're even worse than originally thought. In digging deeper into the questionable claims of the report by The Conference Board of Canada that was basically a cut and paste from various industry groups, Geist noticed that the report relied on some BSA data. So he asked for more info on how the BSA determined the "piracy" rate of software in Canada. How many people were surveyed? What was the methodology?

In response, Geist found out that no one in Canada was surveyed, and BSA (and IDC who created the report) simply made an educated guess, assuming the piracy rates weren't all that different than they were in past years. Yet this hunch, based on no actual data, is being used as a definitive source of piracy numbers in Canada? Even more noteworthy, both the BSA and The Conference Board report use these numbers to support the silly claim that Canada is somehow one of the worst offenders when it comes to supporting "piracy." But what was the reason for not surveying companies in Canada?

"Countries that are included in the survey portion are chosen to represent the more volatile economies. IDC has found from past research that low piracy countries, generally mature markets, have stable software loads by segment, with yearly variations driven more by segment dynamics (e.g. consumer shipment versus business shipments of PCs) than by load-by-load segment."

So... just to get this straight. IDC doesn't bother to survey Canadians about software piracy, because it considers Canada to be a "low piracy" country. So it just makes up the number... and then the BSA, other lobbyists, research groups, the press and politicians (including the US Trade Representative) use these made up numbers to support the claims that Canada is a high piracy country. Doesn't that seem like fraud?

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A Detailed Explanation Of How The BSA Misleads With Piracy Stats

from the and-on-and-on-it-goes dept

A couple months ago, when the Business Software Alliance (BSA) released its latest stats on "piracy," it's VP of anti-piracy, Neil MacBride, gave me a call to discuss my earlier complaints about the organizations methodology. Needless to say, we did not see eye-to-eye, and the phone call did little to resolve our differences. I'm still hopeful that eventually the BSA will recognize that it's doing more damage to its own position by publishing obviously bogus numbers. So, with the organization releasing another bogus stat today, it's time to explain why it's wrong and misleading.

Today's report is an attempt to get the government involved in protecting BSA member companies' business model, by claiming that the US is losing out on $1.7 billion in tax revenue due to "pirated" software. And, of course, it comes with a lovely quote from Mr. MacBride: "The most tragic aspect is that the lost revenues to tech companies and local governments could be supporting thousands of good jobs and much-needed social services in our communities." And the BSA is even so kind as to quantify what that (not really) lost tax revenue could do: "For example, the lost tax revenues to state and local governments -- an estimated $1.7 billion -- would have been enough to build 100 middle schools or 10,831 affordable housing units; hire 24,395 experienced police officers; or purchase 6,335 propane-powered transit buses to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

Except that this is almost entirely incorrect and it's relatively easy to show why:

1. The report counts every unauthorized piece of software as a lost sale. You have to dig through separate PDFs to find this info, but when you finally get to the methodology it states:

   The software losses are based on the piracy rate and equal the value of software installed not paid for.

   That's a huge, and obviously incorrect assumption. Many of the folks using the software likely would not have paid for it otherwise, or would have used cheaper or open source options instead.
2. The report makes no effort to count the positive impact of unauthorized use of software in leading to future software sales. This is something that even Microsoft has admitted has helped the company grow over time. But according to the BSA's report, this doesn't matter.
3. The report also proudly notes: "Software piracy also has ripple effects in local communities." However, "ripple effects" are easily disproved as double or triple counting the same dollar. Using ripple effects like that inflates the final number by two or three times. In the link here, Tim Lee explains this (in reference to an MPAA study done by IPI, but it applies here to the BSA study done by IDC as well):

   If a foreigner gives me $1, and I turn around and buy an apple from you for a dollar, and then you turn around and buy an orange from another friend for a dollar, we haven't thereby increased our national wealth by $3. At the beginning of the sequence, we have an apple and an orange. At the end, we have an apple, an orange, and a dollar. Difference: one dollar. No matter how many times that dollar changes hands, there's still only one dollar that wasn't there before.
   
   Yet in IPI-land, when a movie studio makes $10 selling a DVD to a Canadian, and then gives $7 to the company that manufactured the DVD and $2 to the guy who shipped it to Canada, society has benefited by $10+$7+$2=$19. Yet some simple math shows that this is nonsense: the studio is $1 richer, the trucker is $2, and the manufacturer is $7. Shockingly enough, that adds up to $10. What each participant cares about is his profits, not his revenues.

   This is a huge fallacy that the BSA an IDC refuse to acknowledge. When I discussed it with them in May, they insisted that they only wanted to talk about piracy rates, not the loss number. I wonder why...
4. Next, if they're going to count ripple effects in one direction, it's only fair to also count them in the other direction. That is, they complain that:

   Lost revenue to technology companies also puts a strain on their ability to invest in new jobs and new technologies. For example, the $11.4 billion in piracy losses to software vendors and service providers in the eight states would have been enough to fund more than 54,000 tech industry jobs.

   But what they don't acknowledge is the ripple effects in the other direction. That is, if (going by their assumption, remember) every company that uses an unauthorized copy of software had to pay for it, that would represent $11.4 billion in money that all of those other companies could not use to fund jobs at those companies. What about all of those jobs?
5. The BSA/IDC stat on lost tax revenue also miscounts on the point above, since it includes the lost income tax revenue from those 54,000 lost jobs, but does not count the equivalent income tax revenue from those other jobs. In fact, in the fine print, the report notes:

   "Employment losses are calculated from revenue losses, and only apply to employment in the IT industry, not IT professionals in end-user organizations. Tax revenue losses are calculated from revenue losses (VAT and corporate income tax) and employment losses (income and social taxes)."

   In other words, the income tax losses only count one side of the equation and totally ignore the lost income tax revenue from the lost jobs on the other side of the equation. Oops.
6. It seems likely that the eventual tax benefits of the unauthorized use of software is most likely to greatly outweigh the lost tax revenue elsewhere. That's because the use of software within industries is a productivity tool that increases overall productivity and output, which would increase taxes beyond just the income taxes of the employees. The study, of course, ignores this point.
7. Worst of all, the report seems to assume that direct software sales are the only business model for the software industry, ignoring plenty of evidence from companies that have adopted business models that embrace free software -- generating billions of dollars for the economy (and in taxes). And that's what this really comes down to. It's a business model issue. If others started adopting these business models as well, there wouldn't be any "losses" at all.

Oh, and just for good measure, the report also falsely claims that: "What many don't realize or don't think about is that when you purchase software, you are actually purchasing a license to use it, not the actual software." That's not exactly true and goes directly against a recent court ruling that said the opposite and goes through a detailed explanation for why a piece of sold software is a sale with restrictions, rather than a license, using previous court precedents.

Most of these points have been made to the BSA and IDC in the past, and both organizations chose not to address them. The fact that they're continuing to use these obviously false numbers and methodology to now push for the government to prop up an obsolete business model should be seen as troubling not just for the dishonesty of it, but for the negative impact it will have on the software industry and our economy as a whole.

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BSA Releases Latest Stats; Stands By Same Old Story

from the we've-heard-this-before,-haven't-we dept

Every year around this time, the Business Software Alliance (BSA) comes out with a report, put together for the BSA by IDC, about software "piracy" statistics. Every year, since 2004 I call them out on how misleading many of the stats are (or, more specifically, I jokingly refer to the BSA as Bogus Stats as Always). At times, even IDC, who puts the report together for the BSA, has admitted that the BSA has tended to misrepresent the results -- and yet IDC keeps putting together the report every year. The good news, honestly, is that over the past few years, we've seen a changing trend in the coverage of the reports on these numbers, in that more people are calling the BSA out for using the numbers in a misleading way. The BSA, to its credit, has at least tried to be more conscious of how it presents and explains its numbers... sometimes.

Perhaps because of this, in advance of the release of the latest report today, the BSA reached out to me (and I'm sure plenty of others as well) to talk about the report and address any concerns. I spent half an hour on the phone this afternoon with Neil MacBride, the BSA's VP of Anti-Piracy and General Counsel. With him was Marcel Warmerdam an associate VP from IDC. I really appreciate the two spending the time to discuss the latest study with me -- as (this should come as no surprise) we didn't agree on very much.

The report itself seems pretty similar to what's come out in previous years. IDC does a rather credible job in determining the rate of unauthorized use throughout the world. The report this year highlights the fact that the rate of unauthorized use appears to be falling in many countries while rising in a few rapidly developing ones (Brazil, Russia, India and China). This is no surprise, as it's pretty much what anyone watching this market knows happens. I have no problem with the reporting on the rate of unauthorized usage.

Where things get problematic, however, is when the report starts to look at the impact of such things. The report itself shifts back and forth between "retail value of the software" and "losses" as if they are one and the same. By now, it should be quite clear that they are not the same. My second problem is that the report also ties these faux "losses" to a separate IDC report claiming that a drop in unauthorized usage of software would increase jobs, increase revenue in the IT sector and increase taxes. That's inaccurate for a variety of reasons, specifically in that it double-counts the impact of certain things and also only counts the "ripple effects" in one direction.

I raised these questions to both Neil and Marcel, and the summary of the call as Marcel noted at the end is that we'll have to agree to disagree. We didn't discuss the ripple effects issue, because that's actually from a different study than the one released today (though, the one today does reference that report to back up its claims -- which is why I brought it up). However, Neil and Marcel defended the "losses" claim by pointing out that plenty of companies out there (they kept pointing to large companies) would go out and buy the software if they had no other option. Indeed. And, I would probably go out and buy lunch at Pizza Hut if I had no other options, but we don't count it as a "loss" for Pizza Hut when I go eat at McDonalds instead. The fact is that there are other options -- even if some of them break the license agreements. My point is that this is a business model issue that the industry needs to deal with by giving businesses positive reasons to pay, rather than threatening to whack them with a legal stick.

However, what became clear in talking to Neil was that the BSA really does seem to believe that the majority of these unlicensed uses really would be paid for -- which seems like a highly questionable claim. We also very much disagreed over calling unauthorized use of software "theft" (he says it is, and tossed out the old favorite about how it's no different than taking a CD or a pack of chewing gum out of a store). He specifically said "software is a tangible good." The problem is that this is simply not true. I'm sure plenty of software companies and the BSA itself would like it to be a tangible good -- but it is not, and no amount of pretending makes it so.

In the end, Neil suggested that maybe this is a "generational" thing (I guess I'm the young whippersnapper), which I don't think is accurate either. I think it's really more of a business model thing. The companies that make up the BSA have relied on a particular business model for many, many years. That business model depends on government-granted monopolies that allow them to create artificial scarcity. They like that business model and don't want it to go away. However, the market is shifting, and it's shifting due to companies recognizing the fundamental characteristics of software being infinite, which allows them to implement other business models that don't rely on artificial scarcity. We're seeing it all the time, even among some companies who are members of the BSA. IBM, for example, has learned that its real money-maker is in services, and free software helps build that market. Red Hat has shown a similar business model on a smaller scale. And Google, which is a software company (even if people don't realize it), has shown an entirely different model to make its software extremely profitable in a way that "piracy" is of no concern.

The more the BSA talks up fundamentally flawed "losses" the more difficult it makes it for many of its members to recognize that the market is changing, and they need to change their business models with it. The less these companies focused on made up "losses" and the more they focused on creating business models where there are good reasons for companies to pay money, the more they'd realize that unauthorized use isn't the problem at all. With the BSA reports on losses, though, too many of these companies are taught to think that the problem is elsewhere (those darn pirates), rather than in how they view the market themselves. And, that, fundamentally, is dangerous for the BSA's own members. So, I very much appreciate both Neil and Marcel for reaching out and taking the time to talk with me, and responding to my criticisms -- and I hope to continue the conversation with them. But, they did little to change my feelings about the BSA report and its misleading nature.

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