HADOPI Wants To Research File Downloads: Shouldn't It Have Done That First?

from the better-late-than-never dept

One of the most important aspects of the UK's Hargreaves Report was that it called for copyright policy to be based on evidence. It also noted that so far that simply hadn't been the case, and that practically all of the so-called "studies" used to justify laws in this area came from the copyright industries, with missing or dubious methodologies.

The French three-strikes scheme known as HADOPI (actually the name of the government agency that oversees its implementation) is a perfect example of such dogma-based legislation: no research was done into how files were being shared or even whether they did any harm (there's a fair amount of evidence that file sharing increases sales).

So it's interesting to see HADOPI putting out a call for some research into streaming sites (original in French):

The commissioned study focuses on an economic analysis of streaming sites and direct download where illegal practices are the most common, offering cultural property in the areas of music and video.
This new interest in streaming sites is presumably a consequence of Nicolas Sarkozy's announcement at the recent Forum d'Avignon that "we have to tackle the streaming web sites." It's certainly welcome that HADOPI is doing some research before it draws up its proposals in this area; but shouldn't it have done the same with the original three-strikes scheme?

There's an interesting parallel with SOPA here. In the section with the splendid title "Denying U.S. Capital To Notorious Foreign Infringers", we read the following:

Report to Congress- The Intellectual Property Enforcement Coordinator shall, not later than 6 months after the date of the enactment of this Act, submit to the Committees on the Judiciary of the House of Representatives and the Senate a report that includes the following:

(1) An analysis of notorious foreign infringers and a discussion of how these infringers violate industry norms regarding the protection of intellectual property.

(2) An analysis of the significant harm inflicted by notorious foreign infringers on consumers, businesses, and intellectual property industries in the United States and abroad.
Again, it's good that some research into that "significant harm" will be carried out, but shouldn't that come before the legislation is drawn up and enacted, not after it?

Follow me @glynmoody on Twitter or identi.ca, and on Google+



Reader Comments (rss)

(Flattened / Threaded)

  1.  
    icon
    The eejit (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 5:36am

    Dude!

    You already know that precognition is a prerequisite for Congress! Don't you know they implant subliminal messages in the cereals everyone buys that make you go out and vote Bush (again)?

    /tinfoil

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  2.  
    icon
    Ninja (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 5:49am

    Pfft, who needs evidence when it's obvious that file sharing has caused the quadrillions of dollars in losses for the entertainment sector and thus lead it to extinction.

    /doh

    Clueless troll bashing Mike over a non-point completely unrelated to the article in 3, 2, 1....

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  3.  
    identicon
    out_of_the_blue, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:00am

    "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    Updating of old phrase said by the piano player in a sporting house.

    Once again, you push out this lame "Piracy? What Piracy? -- And IF there IS any, it's good!" theme. Way to go Techdirt, pro-piracy right down the line.

    How about a report on how well HADOPI is actually doing? -- Oh, wait. That's what this you're complaining about should do...

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  4.  
    icon
    WysiWyg (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:04am

    You're reading it wrong...

    You are reading it wrong, you think that they are going to be intellectually honest.

    They have already written what the reports are supposed to find, that copyright infringing violates "industry norms", and does "significant harm". It's like when the UN ordered Sweden to do an analysis of our anti-sex-buying-law, and they ordered the investigator to see if they needed to up the punishment, and nothing else.

    And in regards to HADOPI; they aren't supposed to investigate what damage, if any, this sort of infringement does. They already know the answer to that (hint: it's "whatever the industry tells us"), they are going to investigate how best to crush it.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  5.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:05am

    Re:

    And it only took 11 minutes to prove Ninja right. Odd that you don't actually address the point made: that lawmaking should ideally be based on evidence.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  6.  
    icon
    fogbugzd (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:13am

    The industry has already made up its mind and does not want to be confused by the facts.

    By the way, how has Hadopi been doing? If the industry's analysis of the situation was correct, then French media sales should be booming compared to other European countries like Switzerland that have more lenient piracy laws. The industry got everything that it asked for in the legislation. If the industry was correct in its analysis then there should be some clear indication by this time.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  7.  
    icon
    eclecticdave (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:16am

    Significant Harm

    Again, it's good that some research into that "significant harm" will be carried out, but shouldn't that come before the legislation is drawn up and enacted, not after it?


    Well, yes - but since the "research" is almost certainly going to involve going to the entertainment industry and asking "how much do you think you've been harmed" - it probably doesn't matter whether it is done before or after the legislation.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  8.  
    icon
    average_joe (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:18am

    Again, it's good that some research into that "significant harm" will be carried out, but shouldn't that come before the legislation is drawn up and enacted, not after it?

    False premise. Congress makes findings about the need for legislation before creating it. That the legislation itself calls for FURTHER analysis doesn't mean the legislation was baseless to begin with. Nice try, but this is just standard copyright-hater nonsense.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  9.  
    identicon
    Donnicton, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:24am

    Re: Re:

    Pshaw. Why get hung up on "facts" and "logic", when you can just hurl insults?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  10.  
    icon
    Jay (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:26am

    Re:

    Why are you basing this on the American system? Further, your premise seems rather circular... We need more copyright law in order to study it?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  11.  
    identicon
    Prisoner 201, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:29am

    Re: Re: Re:

    Researching before legislating is like wiping your butt before taking a dump.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  12.  
    icon
    Andrew (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:31am

    Re:

    I don't think any legislation is baseless to begin with, it must come from somewhere.

    The point that the article is trying to bring up is that its kind of silly to make legislation without doing the proper research first.

    If you had to do an assignment on the types of pianos you wouldn't research 5 pianos then say you have researched it all. Same principle here if you ask me, do your ground work as best you can before you come up with crappy legislation that has to be fixed over and over.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  13.  
    icon
    MAJikMARCer (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:35am

    Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    Wow, do you actually read the articles or just the headlines?

    The point that these kinds of studies SHOULD be done prior to ANY law being considered, regardless of what the law is about. Drugs are not introduced and THEN studies done into how safe and effective they are.

    You could argue that my analogy doesn't work because sometimes drugs are given the OK and then they find problems later. Well I'd argue that in many of those cases the drug was fast tracked through with biased studies.

    Hey lookie there, that's just what the entertainment industry is doing!

    If the studies backup the claims, then fine, but as of right now, the evidence isn't there. It's all anecdotal and in some cases, completely fabricated.

    Calling for a study to see if piracy is really the problem that the entertainment companies of the world claim it is, isn't pro-piracy, it's just intelligent policy.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  14.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:36am

    Quote:
    (2) An analysis of the significant harm inflicted by notorious foreign infringers on consumers, businesses, and intellectual property industries in the United States and abroad.


    In law words do matter, the fact that any report should be about "harm" and not "effects" just show that congress is not interested in sound law making, but in making excuses for such extreme positions.

    The reports probably will all be done by the industry and just handover to the IP protection office, I believe it is also in the law that the holder of that position must speak against always and never say anything good about it or was that the law forbidding law enforcement agencies to come out in favor of legalization of drugs?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  15.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:39am

    "Again, it's good that some research into that "significant harm" will be carried out, but shouldn't that come before the legislation is drawn up and enacted, not after it?"

    It's a nice bullshit trick from the pirate supporters here. Legislation should take "real time", while they zip along at internet time and enjoy the pirated content. Basically, such a review could take years to come to a conclusion, especially if you have public hearings and all sorts of other things.

    To the naked eye, you can see the substantial harm being caused (check out recorded music sales, even as recorded music consumption is at an all time high). You have to be wilfully blind or intending to profit from piracy to deny what appears on the surface to be true.

    Which one are you, Glynn?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  16.  
    icon
    PaulT (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:43am

    Re:

    "Congress makes findings about the need for legislation before creating it."

    What does that have to do with France?

    "False premise."

    a.k.a. Every post by you, ootb, darryl and the anonymous idiot. I'd ask why you people don't have anyone reasonable to discuss this issue for you, but that would involve facts, which are woefully lacking on your side of the discussion. Nope, lies and strawmen are the order of the day for you.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  17.  
    icon
    Andrew (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:46am

    Re:

    "To the naked eye, you can see the substantial harm being caused (check out recorded music sales, even as recorded music consumption is at an all time high). You have to be wilfully blind or intending to profit from piracy to deny what appears on the surface to be true."

    Proof needed here for your first sentence.

    You also can't pigeon hole people into one of two choices like that. All the article is trying to point out is that research needs to be done before laws get implemented. I agree it is not a speedy process but then why is the process so long in the first place?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  18.  
    icon
    Ninja (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:51am

    Re: Re:

    That was fast.

    And he talks about how successful HADOPI is but I don't see evidence on that other than the possibility (some1 pls get me sources) of French have turned to VPNs and the fact that they tracked hundreds of thousands of infringements and disconnected only 1 after an year (I gotta dig the article from TF that had the sources).

    I mean, ok, go ahead and criminalize the entire country. Maybe when we are all behind bars we'll be free from all this Governmental idiocy.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  19.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:55am

    Re:

    Quote:
    To the naked eye, you can see the substantial harm being caused (check out recorded music sales, even as recorded music consumption is at an all time high). You have to be wilfully blind or intending to profit from piracy to deny what appears on the surface to be true.


    Even if that was true(but is not), I still ain't giving up freedom so you can try sell some more trinkets.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  20.  
    icon
    Killercool (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:56am

    Re:

    "check out recorded music sales, even as recorded music consumption is at an all time high"

    It's a nice bullshit trick from the copyright maximalists here. Legislation should zip along at "internet time", when useful research and study takes real time, and years worth of data to come to any meaningful conclusion.

    To the naked eye, you can see the enormous benefit the music industry as a whole is receiving (the enormous amount of legitimate indie music that is free, as well as official labeled music that is free as well,). You have to be willfully blind, or intending to demand rent from your customers to deny what is obviously true.

    Which one are you, AC #2?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  21.  
    icon
    Ninja (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:00am

    Another clueless troll. The shock. /irony

    Congress makes findings about the need for legislation before creating it.

    What findings? That file sharing is killing the industry? Will I really have to repeat for the millionth time with numbers from your own bosses that the entertainment sector is doing great?

    Mike criticizes exactly that, the fact that the Govt creates legislation based on its findings but that these findings are either extremely biased or unproven.

    There's this law in some countries where you aren't allowed to use your cell phone near a gas station on explosion risk grounds. Mythbusters did a pretty didactic job proving this is bullshit (I'd rather see a more academic study but not every1 understands chemistry as the Chemistry graduates do). I wonder how many gas stations blew up due to cell phones. Probably tens of thousands since the arrival of mobile communications. Oh wait.... While this specific piece of law is rather harmless, idiocies like HADOPI/SOPA have a huge impact on the ordinary ppl lives. Hence the need of proper evidence and not biased crap.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  22.  
    icon
    MAJikMARCer (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:02am

    Re:

    No I would argue that the reason you want this law to pass quickly and without reasonable review is because you know you really don't have a leg to stand on. Once the law is in place it's much more difficult to remove, regardless of the studies done.

    Why don't the entertainment companies open their books from over the last 20 years where proper correlations can be made to economic changes, technology changes and real numbers used. I bet you'd find that the most popular P2P sites out there would be happy to provide their download numbers. Open cooperation would certainly expedite this study. And surely you'd want to expedite it if there really is 'significant harm'.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  23.  
    icon
    Ninja (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:02am

    Re:

    To the naked eye, you can see the substantial harm being caused (check out recorded music sales, even as recorded music consumption is at an all time high).

    Care to add digital sales, live concerts and other merchandise to your naked eye evidence? I guess you can't because you can't see beyond the big labels (even though those are doing marvelously from their own figures).

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  24.  
    icon
    PaulT (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:09am

    Re:

    "To the naked eye, you can see the substantial harm being caused"

    No you can't, unless you made your mind up before you even started looking. Unless you ignore thousands of other potential factors "just because", it's impossible to derive causation from this correlation without at least serious study into those factors.

    "You have to be wilfully blind or intending to profit from piracy to deny what appears on the surface to be true."

    You're a poor scientist if you think that glancing at the surface is sufficient. Forgive me if I don't wish legally binding legislation to be based on assumptions by poor scientists and surface appearances looked at by the wilfully ingorant.

    It's just sad that people like you have ignored any serious study and attacked people with differing options as "pirates" instead of listening to their last decade of suggestions and solutions.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  25.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:22am

    http://www.youhavedownloaded.com/

    To all you pirates that website there collects data on what IP's have download something, when you get there it automatically shows you if anybody using that IP address download something, great fun, I bet if we got the IP addresses from the anti-pirate people we could just call them thieves too since their IP's would be there.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  26.  
    icon
    PaulT (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:24am

    Re: Re:

    "Care to add digital sales, live concerts and other merchandise to your naked eye evidence?"

    Of course he wouldn't - they interfere with his predisposed assumptions. Nor would he like to consider the effects of unbundling, legal streaming services, competition from other entertainment options and the effects of a worldwide recession, among many other factors. He probably won't even consider figures that cover the entire recording industry, as opposed to just those released by RIAA members. Nor will he consider the negative impact that the industry's actions, from price fixing to anti-artist practices to lawsuits, have had on the industry.

    No, it has to be "piracy" and everyone who disagrees with his sheltered world view just has to be a pirate! The world is literally that black and white to these idiots - grey just confuses them.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  27.  
    icon
    Jay (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:26am

    Re:

    Anon, it's great that you've noticed that there's a new audience in TD, but obviously, an IP address is not a person.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  28.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:28am

    Re:

    False premise. Congress doesn't read what they pass, it is physically impossible for anyone to read that many pages of legislation in a year and still have a life, so no they don't have a clue most of the time, they depend on the word of others or to be precise the people who can whisper in their ears.

    Serious studies has been conducted and almost all of them find that there is no substancial harm in piracy that at is basic is like radio and TV, not a substitute for other forms of consumption.

    Also the call for "further" analysis with wording directing what it should find is just dishonest, that is the type of behavior that undermines the trust that people have in authority if there is any left after the first decade of this century.

    Now calling copyright haters just because they are awakening for its purpose and the true harms it causes is just childish.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  29.  
    icon
    nasch (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:29am

    Re:

    Legislation should take "real time", while they zip along at internet time and enjoy the pirated content. Basically, such a review could take years to come to a conclusion, especially if you have public hearings and all sorts of other things.

    Good law hard, need law now!

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  30.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:30am

    Re:

    The only thing I see is "content owners" trying to protect a monopoly at any cost and eroding democracy.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  31.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:32am

    Re: Re: Re:

    Oh Paul, you try so hard. Recorded music sales INCLUDE digital sales - and they are still off well over 50% in a decade. Yet, consumption of recorded music is at an all time high. Sort of says something, doesn't it?

    Even with concerts, merch, and all that, things are at best break even to 10 years ago. This is with concert tickets that are mutliple times more expensive than before, etc.

    It doesn't leave much except piracy - people still want the product, people still consume the product, they have just found a way not to pay for it.

    Denying that basic and obvious thing pretty much paints you into the piracy supporter corner.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  32.  
    icon
    PaulT (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:33am

    Re:

    Well done... I thought you were serious before I read that last sentence :)

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  33.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:48am

    Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    Okay, let's see. There is flooding in New Orleans. Let's start making some studies on the flooding, how it happened, and see how perhaps it can be avoided in the future. Let's set up panels, commissions, and action groups to figure out the best course of action. Give them, what, 180 days to file their reports, and then we can plan congressional hearings on all of it a few months later, and then they can roll it all up into a single report, then someone can write some legislation, send it to committee, where it can get debated, marked up, sent back to the house, passes, sent to congress, where they can debate it some more, make changes, sent it back to the house, and let them debate it some more. Finally, you can get the two houses together to come up with a compromise bill, pass it, send to the president for signature, and then put it on the list for enactment in the next 180 days. Finally, 4 years after you started, you have a bill passed to deal with the issue and fund rescue operations.

    Too bad everyone is already dead.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  34.  
    icon
    nasch (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:57am

    Re: Re: Re: Re:

    Oh Paul, you try so hard.

    Still no citations...

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  35.  
    icon
    average_joe (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:01am

    Re: Re:

    And pretending like sites like http://www.demonoid.me/ aren't a problem is disingenuous. Sorry guys, but if you can't even admit that there's a rogue site problem to begin with, I can't take anything you say seriously.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  36.  
    icon
    PaulT (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:02am

    Re: Re: Re: Re:

    "Recorded music sales INCLUDE digital sales"

    Please point out where I said they didn't.

    "Yet, consumption of recorded music is at an all time high. Sort of says something, doesn't it?"

    Yes, it says that there's a disconnect between what's being sold and how people listen to music. For example: unbundling. 15 years ago, people had to buy the 12 track album or two 4 song CD "singles" to get the 2 tracks they wanted. Now, they just buy the 2 tracks - for money, with no laws broken or infringed upon. Of course, the amount of money exchanged is lower, because there's less product being sold.

    No laws are being broken in that example, and no infringement is taking place. The same amount of music is being "consumed", but there's significantly less music being sold, for significantly lower prices.

    It's perfectly possible to consume more music than ever before in the modern world, without infringing any copyrights or paying more money than you used to. You're a fool if you don't even consider this possibility, and your conclusions *will* be wrong.

    "Denying that basic and obvious thing pretty much paints you into the piracy supporter corner."

    Yes, you discuss your personal fantasy world as usual. Much better than debating actual facts and the real opinions of those you oppose.

    Also, "corner"? It's telling that people like you who don't understand their "opposition" seem to regard this as some kind of boxing match.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  37.  
    icon
    techflaws.org (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:02am

    Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    Faulty analogy is faulty.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  38.  
    icon
    MAJikMARCer (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:04am

    Re: Re: Re: Re:

    Do you consider streaming music in the digital sales column? Even so, how do you calculate consumption? How do you know how I consume music? Much less how much of it I consume. Additionally you need to define 'consume'. I may purchase a song once, but listen to it hundreds of time. Is that one or hundreds of consumptions?

    It's a fair debate, but if you are going to use this argument you need to define the variables or it's impossible to have an intelligent conversation on the subject.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  39.  
    icon
    techflaws.org (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:04am

    Re:

    Congress makes findings

    Findings about record years in the movie industry perhaps? Imagine the harm!

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  40.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:06am

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    Paul, the citations are all over techdirt. We have been through this before. Take the year 2000 IFPI report, and then take the year 2010 report. Since they cannot go back and "lie in the past" to make the future look worse, the 2000 year report is a good start point. The difference is a drop of over 50%.

    Then you go and look a the UK BMI numbers. When you combine recorded music sales and live concerts, the effect is "flat". In fact, the only reason there is any increase is because of the dreaded licensing fees.

    Then go and look at concert ticket prices. Even a few years ago, ticket prices were in the $40-$60 range in most of the US. Now it's not unusual to see top ticket prices well over $200, and the low end close to $100 (for horrible, obstructed view seats). Even your local 300 place "soft seater" has more than doubled ticket prices in a very short period of time.

    Net result? Just like the movie industry, the actual number of customers drops, even if the sales are flat, because the ticket price is so much higher.

    The numbers are all out there Paul. I am not going to keep repeating myself over and over again because you conveniently forget about them in each discussion.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  41.  
    icon
    average_joe (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:06am

    Re: Another clueless troll. The shock. /irony

    Why don't you ask your Wyden and Issa on what findings they decided that the OPEN Act was needed? You guys are too much.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  42.  
    icon
    Ninja (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:07am

    Re: Re: Re: Re:

    [CITATION NEEDED]

    63,7% of all percentages are taken from someone's arse with no base whatsoever.

    The best argument I've seen and that MIGHT get close to the reality is that the increase in revenues did not follow inflationary pressure meaning there was no real increase in total revenues in the last 10 years if you level both values to a determined point in time.

    Even if that is true (and I never tested this to be honest) you still saw an INCREASE in revenue, something that's not bad at all. But you see, this result only included the big labels. All results you show only include big labels and mind boggling numbers. But you see, there's life in the $0,10 market. I just bought Minecraft pocket endition for $0,10 on the Android Market. Are you counting the small musicians that can actually get something (in contrast to nothing 10-15 years back before the digital 'revolution')? Or are you one of those idiots that consider $500 made of a track to be unworthy of adding to the statistics?

    But you see, it's weird, despite all your whining your industry is making more and more movies, games, songs, books than ever before. It just doesn't sum. If you really were in trouble I believe you wouldn't produce more. I mean, if some gadget isn't selling ppl pull out of the market (HP tablet, any1?) and yet we got (blatantly copied yet again from https://www.insightcommunity.com/step2/311/why-i-pirate-an-open-letter-to-content-creators):

    If you were selling hotdogs and you started losing money, would you continue selling hotdogs at a loss for 10 straight years? The reason I ask is because I looked at some of the industries own numbers and it baffles me. If online file-sharing is killing these industries, why would they keep producing more content? And I'm sure someone is going to pull out a study showing trends in per-capita spending adjusted for inflation versus discretionary income per single-family residence that shows the entertainment industry is in a bleak position, but that's not what I'm after. If nobody is buying buggy-whips, you don't increase production year after year. Yet over the last 10 years:

    The number of movies released is up 23% - [1]
    The number of books published is up 47% - [2]
    The number of albums released is up 25% - [3]
    The video games industry is up 23% - [4]

    When I look at those numbers, I have a hard time believing what Chris Dodd, Hilary Rosen and Stanislas Mettra have to say. Didn't Warner Bros. just set a company record for quarterly profits? I'm confused. My guess is that these industries really aren't losing money, but they are losing control. And maybe to them, control is more valuable than profits? I don't know, that's why I'm asking.

    References:

    [1] - http://bit.ly/rj5mRT
    MPAA industry report page 13.
    454 movies released in 2001.
    560 movies released in 2010.

    [2] - http://bit.ly/uRb4KC
    R.R Bowker output report, 2002 thru 2010.
    215,138 books published in 2002.
    316,480 books published in 2010.

    [3] - http://bit.ly/tneVtC
    90,324 music items for 2001.
    113,080 music items for 2010.
    Unfortunately, I could not find any release statistics on the RIAA website. Instead, I used Discogs browse by year feature and noted the number of items listed at the bottom of the page. This wasn't ideal so I'm hoping someone out there can dig up a relevant report.

    [4] - http://bit.ly/kLHJ2Q
    ESA industry report page 10.
    208.7 million units sold 2001.
    257.2 million units sold 2010.
    I was unable to find any information regarding the number of releases per year. I used the number of units sold per year instead. Admittedly, the last two years have shown decreases of 7% and 8% but it should be noted that the chart in question is for "sales of new physical content at retail exclusively." So if you didn't buy at a retail chain or if you legally downloaded your purchase, it's not included in this chart. Page 11 of the same report states 24% of content was digital in 2010. I know it's not a perfect methodology but if we increase 2010's units sold by 24% we would get 318.9 million units which would be a 52% increase over 2001. I believe the 23% increase stated above is lower than the actual number, but I also thought it was important to use the numbers supplied by the industry.


    Please AC, enlighten me with the logic, I sincerely don't get it. Wherever you go check the entertainment industry as a whole is simply thriving and even the big players that are supposedly the most affected by the technology and all the "rampant piracy" are doing good. There was some brilliant post a few weeks back where the guy proved that the amount of money spent with entertainment actually went way up. It's just that the big players have a smaller piece of the pie/cake. I'm not in the mood to look for further data and honestly TD, TorrentFreak, Rick, Michael Geist and many others have already provided us with enough sources that prove that file sharing isn't an issue. If you are really willing to provide serious numbers and get your head out of the arses of MAFIAA members and see the whole picture we can keep discussing, other than that please go back to your cave and keep smoking your weed and believing entertainment can only be found with the big players. Begone, troll.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  43.  
    icon
    techflaws.org (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:07am

    Re: Re: Re: Re:

    and they are still off well over 50% in a decade

    Tough shit! Who said they would have to stay at an all-time high forever?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  44.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:07am

    Re: Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    dismissive comment is stupid.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  45.  
    icon
    Jay (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:08am

    Re: Re: Re:

    They aren't. How has a torrent being searchable on demonoid created a loss in any industry?

    The rogue site problem is a fabricated one.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  46.  
    icon
    Gwiz (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:08am

    Re: Re: Re:

    Sorry guys, but if you can't even admit that there's a rogue site problem to begin with, I can't take anything you say seriously.

    AJ, Blind faith based on a cursory glance of some site isn't enough to trample Constructional rights. You should know that.

    Yes, I am aware there may be these so called "bad actors" out there. What is needed is proof that these so call bad actors are actually damaging anyone, is that so much to ask for?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  47.  
    icon
    Chuck Norris' Enemy (deceased) (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:08am

    Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    I think you just proved why the government shouldn't be involved from the get go. Plus, your end result is the same whether they wait around 4 years or just throw money and laws at a problem right off the bat. =]

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  48.  
    icon
    Jay (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:09am

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    Those reports are bogus and you need to learn how to link. Put up or shut up. Otherwise, you're full of shit more than the vague guy from a few weeks ago.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  49.  
    icon
    PaulT (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:09am

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    "Paul, the citations are all over techdirt."

    Lern 2 reed

    I didn't say the above.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  50.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:09am

    Re: Re: Re: Re:

    The picture you paint points to one conclusion...the price of the product is too high OR the perceived value of the product doesn't match the price.

    Either way, what it suggests is that the recorded music industry needs to make some changes to its business models.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  51.  
    icon
    Ninja (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:12am

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    Maybe the numbers are dropping now because of the crisis? Maybe, just maybe, ppl are tired of overpriced low-quality stuff and stopped going to the cinema? I for one have reduced my theater habits because they aren't worth the prices.

    For the record, everything is more expensive, that's called inflation. Concerts are not the only thing that went up.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  52.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:13am

    Re: Re: Another clueless troll. The shock. /irony

    Law nerds vs. actual nerds. I wonder which will win?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  53.  
    icon
    MAJikMARCer (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:15am

    Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    It's not like digital media distribution (or 'piracy') is just suddenly new and these are the first laws to do anything about it. It's been about 12 years since Napster came on the scene. Granted it takes time for data to accumulate, but then where is the data? Studies could have been commissioned after the DMCA was enacted in 1998.

    As for your analogy, sure some of the music industry may 'die' from this shift in technology and business models, but to suggest it's all on piracy is taking a very narrow view of the situation. It's like saying it's all the fault of Army Corp of Engineer's fault that they levy broke. Sure they might have done a better job of maintaining it, but it was the hurricane that caused the flooding. The fact that you live below sea level is on you.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  54.  
    icon
    PaulT (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:19am

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    Ah, I see... you were responding to the part of Ninja's post I quoted that mentioned digital.

    So, that makes 2 posts you're misattributed in the space of this discussion thus far. Bravo.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  55.  
    icon
    MAJikMARCer (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:20am

    Re: Re: Another clueless troll. The shock. /irony

    The OPEN Act is directly resulting from what they felt was overly broad SOPA. OPEN wouldn't exist if not for SOPA. At least OPEN is asking for public comment.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  56.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:29am

    Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    How about a report on how well HADOPI is actually doing? -- Oh, wait. That's what this you're complaining about should do...

    How well is HADOPI actually doing? Tons of stuff has been filed... and yet, after all this time, only about three people have been actually brought to litigation.

    If HADOPI is supposed to be working at stopping rampant piracy, either it's a massive failure, or maybe piracy isn't that rampant.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  57.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:29am

    Re: Re: Re:

    Fine, because I don't take anything you say seriously either :)

    After all anyone who believes in fabricated numbers, false premises and make wild baseless accusations that he can't find any shred of evidence to back it up can't be serious.

    You are all mouth and no action.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  58.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:30am

    Re: Re: Re: Re:

    A more apt analogy has never been made.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  59.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:30am

    Re: Re: Another clueless troll. The shock. /irony

    Probably the same finds that nobody can corroborate and those are that piracy harms something.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  60.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:39am

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    So the numbers dropped and you take out of your ass the assumption that it must be piracy but can't show it conclusively.

    Nice I see how that works.

    See, piracy create jobs in developing countries like China, Brazil, India, Russia they are all economies that are growing and all due to piracy since it is rampant end they are having a very strong growth.

    Also pirates are shown to combat global warming.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PiratesVsTemp%28en%29.svg

    See there in the graphic, when pirates numbers where great temperatures where lower as they diminished the temperature started to rise.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  61.  
    icon
    Ninja (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:39am

    Re: Re: Another clueless troll. The shock. /irony

    I have issues with DMCA itself so yes, I don't agree with OPEN as it is now too. But it accepts PUBLIC contributions. As in PEOPLE will have their speak there. And it includes EFF and the likes. So I do think the end result will be much, much better than SOPA.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  62.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:51am

    Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    You see when people ask about the backlog HADOPI is accumulating everyone in the French government suddenly goes quiet.

    They don't send out the second letters, because it is too many people.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  63.  
    icon
    Jay (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:54am

    Re:

    Digital sales right now - $7 billion
    Recorded music sales during the "boom"- $15 billion

    So, of the $8 billion in sales, do you honestly believe that all of that money is lost thanks to piracy?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  64.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:58am

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    People not going to a concert is because of piracy right in your neck of the woods?

    So China double digit growth is because of piracy too?
    In every developing country piracy is rampant and they are having the times of their lifes over there so piracy is equal to progress right?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  65.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 9:19am

    Re: Re: Another clueless troll. The shock. /irony

    WTG Average Joe, you pinned them down exactly on their own issue.

    It's another Techdirt special: We will throw every blockage possible in the way of anyone trying to fight piracy, but we will support blindly anything that appears to be a law but will certainly do nothing - and we won't question it.

    It smells in here from all the bullshit Mike is pushing.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  66.  
    icon
    Gwiz (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 9:19am

    Re: Re: Re: Re:

    Oof. I could say the problem was with Spellcheck, but in reality, the problem was somewhere between my chair and the keyboard.

    Constructional = Constitutional

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  67.  
    icon
    Ninja (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 9:41am

    Re: Re: Re: Another clueless troll. The shock. /irony

    My post above yours was there to be read for 30 minutes and it completely crushes your comment and Joe's too. And if you care to read there have been a few publications already on why the CURRENT redaction of OPEN is not good. Fortunately it's OPEN for changes.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  68.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 10:31am

    Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    4 years to legislate is reasonable, especially when you consider that it will allow New Orleans continue to exist sustainably for 50-100 years.

    Everyone is dead... LOL, hyperbole!

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  69.  
    icon
    The eejit (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 10:42am

    Re: Re: Re: Another clueless troll. The shock. /irony

    Open > Closed in 99% of cases - sometimes, however, it takes quite a while. See, for example, the Bolshevik Revelution and the English Civil War.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  70.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 10:42am

    Re: Re: Re:

    so by yu logic we shouldn't have wepons to sell i mean how many people ahve been killed by one of those >>

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  71.  
    icon
    The eejit (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 10:46am

    Re:

    I downloaded a copy of Arkham City whilst going to that site just to test it out - it's not very good, and the copy's gone now.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  72.  
    icon
    Rikuo (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 10:48am

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    No...it is not stupid. The analogy compared the very real threat of being killed by floods while flood defence plans take ages going through the system with...online copyright infringement. It's a real world/digital world comparison which always fall apart because they're two different worlds.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  73.  
    icon
    MAJikMARCer (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 11:05am

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    Additionally, the flood defense plan would/should have been designed and in place well before the disaster took place. That's being proactive. What we've seen, almost exclusively, from the entertainment industry has been reactionary.

    The flood has already happened and they are only now wondering what they can do to stop the water.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  74.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 12:30pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re:

    "It doesn't leave much except piracy - people still want the product, people still consume the product, they have just found a way not to pay for it."

    Actually, again, that's just your bias showing. You seem to forget that music is freely and legally available in a few places. Spotify and Pandora being the big two. Both of those have had substantially huge surges in customers all over the world since their introduction. Which is a possible (and more likely) factor for why people aren't buying music. They can get it freely through such a service.

    But let's not let something like that get in the way of vilifying piracy and everyone on this site.

    Denying that basic and obvious thing pretty much paints you into the dumbass and biased copyright maximalist corner.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  75.  
    icon
    Franklin G Ryzzo (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 1:18pm

    Re:

    Blue was right on cue for your countdown... I guess you've been eating that precognition cereal too :D

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  76.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 2:21pm

    Re: Re: Re:

    Your post is dedicated to the theft of US property!!!!
    Posting links to links to infringing files should result in due process free seizure of your post!

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  77.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 4:18pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    The results in New Orleans prove that there was little or no advance planning, and whatever the government did after the fact was screwed up (like sending in trailers that molded within hours of their arrival).

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  78.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 4:22pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    Numbers of items released doesn't really tell much of the story. It's actually a bad sign when releases go up, especially if income is NOT moving - that means less money on average per release.

    What happens is companies come up short on sales, so they release more material trying to back into their budget number. But whatever increase in sales they get for more releases is (a) a loss from someone else, because there is no net sales increase, and (b) often cannibalizing their own sales, and not really solving a problem. It also (c) tends to flood the market, making it less efficient and less productive for everyone involved.

    Consumers, when faced with too many choices, often make none.

    Since sales are NOT going up, the increase in releases in each category is very bad news indeed. Perhaps you want to look not only at widgets moved, but what price those widgets are getting. Hint: It's dropping faster than sales.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  79.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 6:10pm

    Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    Doesn't matter; if they really want to make HADOPI work, send out the letters. You bought your way to get the legislation you want, and now you're not going to use it, then come and rail against everyone because HADOPI's "not working"? Not really the best strategy to get yourself taken seriously, and definitely not the best way to solve the "rampant piracy" problem.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  80.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:34pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    That is the dumbest market analysis ever written.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  81.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:39pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    I'll concede your point in the short term. But no business survives doing that for over a decade.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  82.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:43pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    More unsupported assumptions, with wild theories about how markets function and again no real proof of anything.

    Consumers, when faced with too many choices, often make none.

    How would you know that?
    When faced with to many choices I generally find a trusted source(i.e. friends) to see what is good and what is not.
    So maybe your problem is that you are not a trusted source for information.

    Since sales are NOT going up, the increase in releases in each category is very bad news indeed. Perhaps you want to look not only at widgets moved, but what price those widgets are getting. Hint: It's dropping faster than sales.

    That is not what the RIAA said about digital sales, they keep increasing.

    Numbers of items released doesn't really tell much of the story. It's actually a bad sign when releases go up, especially if income is NOT moving - that means less money on average per release.

    It also means a more even distribution in the general market, not to mention possible increase in total sales by market and not company.

    What happens is companies come up short on sales, so they release more material trying to back into their budget number. But whatever increase in sales they get for more releases is (a) a loss from someone else, because there is no net sales increase, and (b) often cannibalizing their own sales, and not really solving a problem. It also (c) tends to flood the market, making it less efficient and less productive for everyone involved.


    Why individual companies matter?
    They don't the overall market is the thing to look for not the individual parts of it.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  83.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:45pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    Almost forgot, not to mention that copyright is an incentive for the creation of useful arts not for the creation of wealth to content owners.

    I there is no need to change laws if the incentives to keep creating more are already there.

    This is not about the companies, is about work done.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  84.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 7:48pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    What rampant piracy problem?
    People getting TV for free or listening the radio for free?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  85.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Dec 12th, 2011 @ 8:13pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    We're getting very close to criminalising those. There are individuals amongst the industry bigwigs that claim if you don't receive advertising via television or radio, it's infringement. You could turn on the radio, listen to one song, then turn it off and be liable.

    Heck, by that definition you could buy a radio, not listen to it, and they could charge you with not receiving advertisements by leaving it turned off. (They've already covered the possibility of leaving it turned on where other people can hear the music. We'll all be fucked regardless of whether the radio/television/device is on OR off.)

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  86.  
    icon
    PaulT (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 11:04pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    "It's actually a bad sign when releases go up, especially if income is NOT moving - that means less money on average per release.'

    It's not a bad thing, unless your entire business model depends on volume sales of that specific item with an optimised per unit price. If you have a more diversified business model, or you use the increase volume to leverage higher margin items, there's no problem.

    Maybe I'm misreading you, but it seems here that you're finally admitting that there's other problems other than "piracy" that are affecting the industry. Glad you can join us in the real world, now could you maybe consider that your above assertion that the lower profits don't "leave much except piracy" to consider was a lie, or at least a gross exaggeration? That, as everybody you attack has been saying for years, there's business consideration to make that have nothing to do with piracy?

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  87.  
    icon
    PaulT (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 11:10pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    ...and he's completely ignored any of my points in favour of pithy, pathetic attacks against other posters.

    What a surprise.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  88.  
    icon
    nasch (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 11:23pm

    Re: Re:

    Findings about record years in the movie industry perhaps? Imagine the harm!

    That's what they're doing!

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  89.  
    icon
    nasch (profile), Dec 12th, 2011 @ 11:28pm

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:

    I am not going to keep repeating myself over and over again because you conveniently forget about them in each discussion.

    Good. Two questions then, one serious and one flippant. Do those numbers include all music, or only major label music? Second, are you going to show us the numbers that prove this lack of increase in revenue is due to piracy? Because I don't remember seeing those (other than ridiculous RIAA studies).

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]

  90.  
    icon
    Jeffrey Nonken (profile), Dec 13th, 2011 @ 2:37am

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: "Don't shoot me, I'm only the network admin!"

    ...all of which does nothing to make your analogy work.

     

    reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]


Add Your Comment

Have a Techdirt Account? Sign in now. Want one? Register here
Get Techdirt’s Daily Email
Save me a cookie
  • Note: A CRLF will be replaced by a break tag (<br>), all other allowable HTML will remain intact
  • Allowed HTML Tags: <b> <i> <a> <em> <br> <strong> <blockquote> <hr> <tt>
Follow Techdirt
A word from our sponsors...
Essential Reading
Techdirt Reading List
Techdirt Insider Chat
A word from our sponsors...
Recent Stories
A word from our sponsors...

Close

Email This