Mary Meeker Fixes More Than Her Math In YouTube Report
from the number-massage dept
Last week, Morgan Stanley internet analyst Mary Meeker was embarrassed when it was revealed that a math mistake on her part caused her to vastly overstate (by a factor of 1000x) the revenue potential from YouTube's new ad overlay system. After having her mistake pointed out to her by none other than Henry Blodget, Meeker went back and fixed the report. But she did more than just correct the math. She also tweaked some of her original assumptions so as to boost the significance of the new advertising scheme. Whereas she originally predicted that ads would be shown on approximately 1% of streams, that number has now been boosted to yield a greater revenue impact. Meeker's new model now has the company garnering an additional $75-$189 million in net revenue over the coming year, as compared to the $720,000 that her original model predicted. This whole fiasco is quite revealing about the way Wall Street analysts sometimes operate. Rather than start out with a fixed set of assumptions and then figuring out what that will result in, they come up with an end result and then figure out what reasonable assumptions will get them there. While we're sure that this sort of thing happens all the time, it's rare to get such a stark glimpse into the way it happens.
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They Teach it in Business Schools
P.S. Never mind massaging the numbers, but not knowing the definition of CPM is puzzling, especially considering Mary has followed the Internet sector since 1993.
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Never Ass-ume !
Ya show the true meaning of never to ass-ume !
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She must be buy-side
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Re: They Teach it in Business Schools
That sorta explains what happened during the 90s. =)
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It is always better to know the end
CPAs, Engineers, Architect, Lawyers all know this.
You tell them what the answer is and they adjust the future reality to meet the answer. We are all molders and manipulators of reality to meet future desires. Some are better than others. The good ones get their services hired out to others.
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other possibilities, too
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"Tweaking"
We can charge our customers x per impression with y impressions per day.
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ANALysts numbers
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meeker morgan stanley
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Hindsight !
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