RSS
In Hollywood Not Even Computers Know Anything
from the does-not-compute dept
With so much Wall St. money going into Hollywood films, there's a lot of interest in ways to figure how the business can be made more profitable. Investors would love to find a magic bullet to guarantee a hit, but that seems unlikely in light of the random nature of box office returns and the fact that not even big stars can guarantee a hit. We've written about people who claim to have developed software that will predict whether or not a song or a movie is going to be a hit. Now, more companies are getting into this space, saying that the science of neural networks is making this technology feasible. If this were true, it would be a fantastic breakthrough, as studios and record labels would release only the material that had a high likelihood of offering a substantial return. But unfortunately, there's reason to be skeptical about this approach. The backers have scant evidence that it actually works, just a small sample of works that they claim (without independent verification) to have accurately predicted. Furthermore, even if the entertainment industry were able to put out only top-tier products, it would still face many of the same problems. At the box office, movies compete against one another for scarce screens and movie goers. By definition, not everything can be a hit, and so we'd still expect to see a high variation in returns. Instead of trying to divine what will be a hit using algorithms, business models based on letting people discover what they like, and letting that product flourish, are much more promising.
11 Comments | Leave a Comment..
- DailyDirt: Autonomous Vehicles
- How Publishers Repeated The Same Mistake As Record Labels: DRM Obsession Gave Amazon Dominant Position
- Park Ranger Tases Guy Walking Dogs Without A Leash
- Brazilian Government Ordering Web Hosting Firms To Kill Domain Names They Don't Like
- Syrian President's Email Hacked... His Password Was 12345
Reader Comments (rss)
(Flattened / Threaded)
Yet another excuse...
I wouldn't take offense at this except for the fact that they still consider themselves "artists".
Basically, they are trying to circumvent every part of the process except the part where they get money, and wonder why their popularity and success continues to dwindle.
[ reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]
Well...
By ramming their heads together and ramming it down our throats at the same time, they screw themselves.
[ reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]
A large percentage of the movies I really enjoy were never box-office smashes, and there are plenty of examples of sleeper/cult hits that only begin making money after their initial run is over. Less movies that fit into these categories would make it past this filter.
I, for one, would be disappointed if this approach were ever honed enough to be used.
[ reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]
Who Needs Computers?
[ reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]
How does the software work with that? What is defined as a flop might not really be a flop, and what is successful might not really be all that successful.
[ reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]
So sure, the prediciton could have been, Superman makes a good movie but end the end run, didnt mean it was a cash tree either
[ reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]
No they don't
As for this program it may be accurate. If the terminator like movies aren't something that people really like but everyone watches than its doing its job. If everyone likes the movie but no one goes to see it, its still a flop. As for music has anyone really heard what is really popular "I'm Bringing the sexy back" by Justin Timberlake? (#1 last I heard)
[ reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]
pretty soon
[ reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]
Blockbuster predictions ...
Hell, I can do that ...
Popularity != Quality
Too bad they can't find talent and creativity through neural networking technology ...
As for "I'm Bringing the sexy back", I think that if you simply loop a bunch of catchy tracks together and mix 'em up a bit ... you can just ram it down most young american's throats.
[ reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]
[ reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]
[ reply to this | link to this | view in thread ]
Add Your Comment