The Science Of Analyst Predictions

from the look-into-my-crystal-ball dept

A new analyst report is out, saying that the uptake of 3G will drive demand for mobile portals, a reasonable enough assertion. It's got the usual quantitative prediction, saying there will be 74 million mobile portal users in Europe in 2010 -- a number provided by applying a nice, conveniently round 10% compound annual growth rate. Then, the analyst goes on to say that "to sustain growth", carriers must essentially do a better job. So which is it -- the market it going to grow, or the market's only going to grow if operators can get their acts together? The analyst here makes a compelling argument, if not an obvious one, then undermines it with a silly numerical prediction that's little more than a shot in the dark.

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