Does Anyone Care That Next Generation DVD Standards Talks Have Failed?

from the trying-to-muster-up-some-interest dept

There's been a lot of noise over the last year or so about the two big competing standards for the "next generation" of DVD technology. The news coming out this week is that the two sides have (once again) failed to come to any agreement on merging the standards. The simple result, of course, is that this hurts the prospect of next generation DVDs, because there will be compatibility issues. Companies won't want to decide which standard to go with, so they'll go with none. Consumers will get confused and annoyed that some products work with some systems and others don't. However, honestly, part of this seems like people fighting over the next generation of horse and buggy after the automobile had become popular. The idea of the plastic disc for storage is becoming increasingly obsolete, so it looks like the two sides will be fighting over a shrinking market.


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  1.  
    identicon
    Gary, Aug 23rd, 2005 @ 12:16pm

    Who cares is right!

    I'd like to choke the jerks who came up with the idea to prevent me from fast forwarding through commercials at the beginning of discs.

    I rip DVDs to remove that garbage. I understand that the new standards uses stronger encryption--maybe even impossible to break unless by luck some enterprising techie finds an imperfect implementation of the encryption.

    Unless these new discs are rippable, I'll stay with the original DVD.

     

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  2.  
    identicon
    Anonymous Coward, Aug 23rd, 2005 @ 12:33pm

    GCD

    Simple: find the greatest common bit between the two propositions, and go with that. I'm naively hoping that it'll mean neither of the competing copy-control features will get in, of course.

    I'm still naively hoping we Canadians will have the right to copy for personal use ratified again by the Cdn Supreme Court, and we can then start tossing out CDs which block our rights. Heh, like that'll happen.

    I'll settle, today, for some kind of action from out porky representatives that somehow block the US invasion of BC and the theft of land.

     

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  3.  
    identicon
    Geir E, Aug 23rd, 2005 @ 12:48pm

    No Subject Given

    High Definition Sound is something completly different than High Def Video - People care more for images than sound. Beside, the real big driver is space.

    People probably won't see the real need for high def at the current point, but when more and more invest in hdtv capeable sets, the seek for matching video format opens up. It'll be a selling points for tv sets.

     

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  4.  
    identicon
    Griffon, Aug 23rd, 2005 @ 3:59pm

    No Subject Given

    Obsolete as a storage mechanism, maybe, but certainly not as distribution method. Particularly in the case of large volume media like games that can easily eat up thousands of megs. Until we all have serious pipes to our homes those little disks are going continue to play a big role IMO. It's sad that we have to live through another standards war but we hardly the only going on, cel, wifi, different voip standards etc, but this one has the potential to impact a lot more consumers across the board.

    On the plus side maybe it will make adaptation rates so slow that all the wastfull and obnoxiouse copy protection will be broken by the time it hits the main stream :).

     

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  5.  
    identicon
    r.crypto, Aug 24th, 2005 @ 12:04am

    Discs aren't going anywhere

    I've heard the "discs are dead" mantra for years now. While I think online distribution is indeed the future (simply because it's the most convenient method for consumers), that future is very long way off. In the meantime, discs are a far more efficient medium for transferring large volumes of data than a 1.5Mbps internet connection.
    The technological revolution happening right now (one which the disc naysayers usually sidestep) is that we are finally tossing 50 year old TV technology for HD. I think HD adoption will skyrocket once prices come down by about 50%. It will be similar to DVDs *finally* replacing ancient, low-tech VHS tapes - once the players were in the same price range as high-end VCRs, the transition happened within only a few years.
    My point is that as HD is more widely adopted, people will discover how truly low-res current DVDs are. The next-gen DVD players will probably get real cheap real fast (no drastically new technology to manufacture) so price won't be a barrier to adoption and we'll see them roll out fairly quickly. VCR to DVD was a revolutionary change, as is TV to HD. DVD to blu-ray or HD-DVD is incremental.
    Think about the capacity of these new disc formats vs downloading. Blu-ray discs will hold 25GB per layer which is about 2 hours of 1080p HD video (this is still a highly compressed format, so consider how incredibly lossy and over-compressed the current DVD format is). It takes about 24 hours to download 25GB over a 1.5Mbps net connection assuming you don't use it for anything else during that time (also assuming ideal network conditions and 15% tcp/ip overhead).
    I'm not aware of any immediate plans to roll out 100Mbit connections across America but I have heard of SBC planning to roll out 10Mbit over the next *3 years in metro areas*. A 10Mbit connection can download 25 GB in about 3 1/2 hours. I just don't see this as a threat to driving down to the video store, stockpiling a collection of discs or even waiting for the NetFlix deliveries to show up in the mail (it might take a little longer, but at least I can use my network connection while I'm waiting).
    If I'm wrong about HD than I could be wrong about the continuing dominance of discs but I just don't see such a simple, cheap and efficient format being replaced by a distribution paradigm with no physicality (yes, many people apparently enjoy *collecting* a library of movies) and no clear way to compete on quality.

     

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  6.  
    identicon
    Barrington D. Thompson, Dec 14th, 2006 @ 4:24am

    Re: Discs aren't going anywhere

    http://www.techdirt.com/article.php?sid=20050823/1146255&cid=78#addyourcomment

    SUBJECT: Re: Discs aren't going anywhere

    If most people are like me then I prefer to have a disk than to download information from the web:

    1) The Disk has a much better picture & sound quality
    In England I think that Cable and Satellite are just
    transmitting in 5.1 and not;
    A) Pro Logic IIx, DTS, 6.1, 7.1, Dolby Digital Plus,
    Dolby TrueHD, DTS-HD and possibly THX.

    2) If the player becomes corrupted then it is
    much easier and quicker to Re-boot (start-up) the
    computer or player, and insert the master disk and
    watch the film.

    3) Somebody who has downloaded the film has to:-
    A) Remember which site they downloaded the film
    from:
    1: Pay for a replacement version
    2: If there is a problem obtaining the page,
    then you are stuck.
    3: Find a site, which you can buy a
    replacement version from
    A: Buy it and if something goes wrong with
    the download you would have to pay
    again = might just as well purchased it in
    the first place.
    B: If the film is not available any more than
    you are stuck.

    4) With a DVD's 'decoder' in a computer if you don't
    have a physical disk, with the driver on, after for
    example changing the PC's operating system and it
    is obsolete you are stuck - have to purchase
    another one.

    5) Besides, where are you going to store all these HD
    films, because one week recording could require about
    one terabyte just for one week's program.
    A) Cheaper to buy the disc.

    6) Besides, at the moment it is illegal to make copies,
    at least in England.
    A) I have read some where that they will in the
    future allow people to copy disks, but believe it
    when I see it - It will only probably apply to
    companies like Archos and not to consumers
    to create back-up on for example an external
    drive.
    B) Therefore, to create a library by downloading
    would be far too expensive - just buy the disks.

    7) HD TV sales will rocket, because of; the fact that retailers are making cathode ray tube (CRT) TVs obsolete, and the false propaganda implying that all HD TVs provide a better picture and sound than CRTs - same method used to get people to buy compact disks instead of vinyl records - stop selling vinyl records virtually.

     

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  7.  
    identicon
    Barrington, Dec 18th, 2006 @ 5:17am

    Re: Skipping Advertisements Problems

    I don't think anybody has actually marketed a player to skip advertisements yet.

    It has been claimed that Philips, has probably created a method to skip advertisements, but I don't think it has actualkly marketed any products, which forces people to watch advertisements yet.

    But! if they do I would expect that consumers would not only stop buying (boycott) the product but all Philips products.

    I would also expect that consumers to be intelligent enough to boycott any company, which market such products.

     

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