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Private Markets Cashing In On Pentagon's Futures Market Idea
from the no-need-for-government-intervention dept
With all the hype about the "terrorism futures market" set up by the US government, my biggest complaint was that the government shouldn't be setting up such a market. While there is still plenty of debate over the effectiveness of futures markets, having a government run such a market has dangerous consequences. However, private companies have already been running just such futures markets, and are now trying to cash in on all the hype over the Pentagon's version. They're more widely advertising their own markets, and getting plenty of attention from reporters who are suddenly interested in the concept. One of the markets even quickly set up a contract on whether or not John Poindexter (who set up the Pentagon's market) would be able to keep his job through the end of August.
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How about Flash Mob Futures?
We could start betting on how many people will get abducted in their sleep next month and wake up in Pakistan. How many LAPD helicopters can be brought down if a hundred people point their lasers at the cockpit? You can get some extremely powerful ones these days.
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Do I have any bids?
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Isn't this just gambling?
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futures markets can't predict small-group behavior
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Re: futures markets can't predict small-group beha
Still, you can predict the herd's predilection for assassinations. The herd may go through a fad of assassinations. It is possible to find people unpopular with the herd, therefore at increased risk of assassination.
Also, the law of large numbers cuts both ways. With a large enough herd, you can find outlier people for whom every coin flip in their life always comes up heads. For some people, signals always turn green.
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