Just Two More Quarters - Scientifically Proven

from the so-they-say dept

It's been nearly two years since we first noticed the "just two more quarters" phenomenon. That's the trend for analysts to confidently predict that the market would recover in "just two more quarters". It is, as we originally pointed out, the perfect ass-covering position. People want to hear good news and so they're happy to hear an optimistic upswing prediction. Two quarters is close enough to keep people happy. It's also just long enough that people don't remember who predicted what when those two quarters pass and nothing actually comes of it. The latest to predict "just two more quarters" is the CEO of National Semiconductor, who says he came up with the prediction scientifically, by asking a professor to run some mathematical models of former boom and bust cycles. Why can't people face up to the fact that there's no real way to predict the end of the downturn. One of these days, it will end, and things will pick up again, but trying to interpret the tea leaves is a waste of time.

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